GEVO Should I Buy
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Gevo Inc (GEVO) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term focus. While the company has potential upside in the future due to its sustainable aviation fuel project and improved EBITDA outlook, the current technical indicators, financial performance, and trading sentiment do not support an immediate buy decision. A wait-and-see approach is recommended until more positive catalysts materialize.
The MACD is negative and expanding, indicating bearish momentum. RSI is neutral at 32.52, and moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. The stock is trading below the pivot level of 1.875, with support at 1.751 and resistance at 1.999. Overall, the technical indicators suggest a weak trend with no immediate buy signal.
The acquisition of low-carbon ethanol assets has transformed the company's financial profile, with a path to over $100M adjusted EBITDA. The sustainable aviation fuel project could provide significant upside in 2026.
The stock has a 40% chance of declining slightly in the short term (-0.38% next day, -2.72% next week). Financial performance in Q3 2025 showed a significant drop in net income (-62.40% YoY) and EPS (-66.67% YoY), with gross margin also declining. No recent news or significant insider/hedge fund activity to drive immediate price action.
In Q3 2025, revenue increased significantly by 2073.54% YoY to $42.71M, but net income dropped to -$7.95M (-62.40% YoY), and EPS fell to -0.03 (-66.67% YoY). Gross margin also declined to 29.38%, down 112.49% YoY, indicating profitability challenges despite revenue growth.
Northland has an Outperform rating with a price target of $3, citing the company's improved financial profile and potential catalysts in 2026. However, this is a long-term view, and there are no immediate upgrades or changes in ratings to act on now.
