Should You Buy Green Dot Corp (GDOT) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
12.230
1 Day change
-0.16%
52 Week Range
15.410
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is impatient. GDOT is sitting near its pivot/support with weak momentum signals, recent analyst downgrade tied to complex strategic transactions, and a near-term negative statistical drift. If you already own it, holding into the next key catalyst (QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23) is more reasonable than adding aggressively at current levels.
Technical Analysis
Price: 12.23 (flat to slightly down). Momentum is soft: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0252) though contracting (selling pressure easing, but still below zero). RSI(6) at 44.3 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold, not strong). Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation rather than an uptrend. Key levels: Pivot 12.218 (price is essentially at pivot), Support S1 12.006 then S2 11.875; Resistance R1 12.43 then R2 12.561. With price hovering at pivot and no trend confirmation, this is not an attractive ‘must-buy-now’ setup. The pattern-based projection is also modestly bearish: ~70% chance of -0.42% next day, -0.39% next week, and -2.03% next month.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning looks strongly call-skewed (very low put/call ratios), which can imply bullish sentiment or hedging/positioning tilted to calls. However, today’s absolute option volume is low (116 total; puts 3, calls 113), so the signal may be less reliable. Implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~60.7 vs historical vol ~35.3; IV percentile 62), suggesting the market is pricing meaningful uncertainty (often event/transaction/earnings related). Net: sentiment skew bullish, but uncertainty is high and volume is thin.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
1) Stronger revenue trend in 2025/Q3 (+20.76% YoY), showing the top line is growing.
2) MACD selling pressure is contracting and price is holding near key support/pivot (potential stabilization zone).
3) Call-skewed options positioning (very low put/call ratios) suggests more bullish positioning than bearish positioning.
4) Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-23 after hours (could reset sentiment if results/guide improve).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) News flow is dominated by law-firm investigation headlines related to the company’s sale/transaction process (negative sentiment/overhang and headline risk).
2) Recent analyst downgrade (Outperform -> Market Perform) with a price target cut (to 14.25 from 18) due to the complexity of separating fintech and bank operations.
3) Technicals do not show an uptrend (MACD still below zero; RSI below 50; MAs converging), and the short-term statistical drift is slightly negative.
4) Despite improvements, profitability remains negative (latest quarter still a net loss), which can weigh on long-term conviction for beginners.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue increased to $494.826M (+20.76% YoY), indicating solid top-line growth. Net income was -$30.791M (still a loss), though improved versus prior year (up 292.74% YoY, i.e., less negative). EPS was -0.56, also improved YoY (up 273.33%). Overall: improving trajectory but still not profitable, which reduces ‘simple long-term buy-and-hold’ clarity for a beginner investor.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: On 2025-11-25, Northland (Mike Grondahl) downgraded GDOT to Market Perform from Outperform and reduced the price target to $14.25 from $18 after GDOT announced two coordinated strategic transactions to separate its fintech and bank operations.
Wall Street pro view (pros): potential value creation if the separation clarifies the business and improves execution; price target still above current price.
Wall Street con view (cons): complexity/execution risk around the separation, uncertainty until more details/results are delivered, and near-term sentiment headwinds from transaction-related concerns.
Influential/politician activity: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral with no significant recent trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast GDOT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GDOT is 14.25 USD with a low forecast of 14.25 USD and a high forecast of 14.25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GDOT stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GDOT is 14.25 USD with a low forecast of 14.25 USD and a high forecast of 14.25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 12.250
Low
14.25
Averages
14.25
High
14.25
Current: 12.250
Low
14.25
Averages
14.25
High
14.25
Northland
Mike Grondahl
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$18
AI Analysis
2025-11-25
Reason
Northland
Mike Grondahl
Price Target
$18
AI Analysis
2025-11-25
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Northland analyst Mike Grondahl downgraded Green Dot to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $14.25, down from $18, after the company announced "two somewhat complicated and coordinated" strategic transactions that will separate its fintech and bank operations.
Northland
Mike Grondahl
Outperform
maintain
$16 -> $18
2025-10-15
Reason
Northland
Mike Grondahl
Price Target
$16 -> $18
2025-10-15
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Northland analyst Mike Grondahl raised the firm's price target on Green Dot to $18 from $16 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The Street currently forecasts adjusted EBITDA of $164M and $176M for FY25 and FY26, respectively, notes the analyst, who believes the Street is in-line for FY25, but argues the FY26 view "could be conservative if momentum continues."
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