Should I Buy GCMG? GCMG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

9.890

1 Day change

-0.10%

52 Week Range

14.370

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Buy now as a tactical, mean-reversion entry: RSI is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ~~18), and price is sitting just above S1 support (~~10.47), offering a near-term bounce setup.
Earnings catalyst is imminent (QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-09 pre-market), which can re-rate the stock quickly if results/guide are solid—fits an impatient buyer who doesn’t want to wait.
Wall Street is notably bullish (Oppenheimer Outperform; PT raised to $23), implying substantial upside vs. ~10.5 if sentiment stabilizes.
Options positioning is skewed bullish (very low put/call OI ratio), supporting risk-on sentiment even though actual trading volume is currently muted.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish/downswing intact (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), so this is a counter-trend buy focused on a rebound rather than trend-following.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.113 and negatively expanding → downside momentum has been active, but often precedes snapback moves when RSI is as depressed as it is now.
Oversold: RSI_6 at ~18.1 = deeply oversold; historically increases probability of a short-term bounce.
Key levels: Support S1 ~10.471 (price ~10.51–10.53 is hovering right above), deeper support S2 ~10.055. Resistance/pivot ~11.143, then R1 ~11.815.
Pattern-based near-term odds (provided): ~90% chance of +0.75% next day; +4% next week; +2.67% next month.

Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals

AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment (OI): Put/Call open interest ratio at 0.04 is extremely call-heavy (bullish tilt), though total open interest is small (calls 106 vs puts 4).
Activity: Today’s option volume is 0 (muted), so the bullish skew is more “positioning” than “fresh flow.”
Volatility: 30D IV ~71.65 vs historical vol ~30.18 → options are priced for a sizable move (consistent with upcoming earnings). IV rank ~29 and IV percentile ~51.8 suggest IV is elevated but not at extremes.
Near-term implication: market is pricing an earnings move; call-skew supports a bullish bias into the event.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-09 (pre-market); near-term event catalyst.
- Analyst action: Oppenheimer raised PT to $23 from $20 and reiterated Outperform (supports re-rating/upside narrative).
- Financial momentum (latest reported quarter): strong YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS (supports “fundamentals improving” storyline).
- Technical setup: deeply oversold RSI increases probability of a short-term rebound from support (~10.47).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Trend is still bearish (SMA stack bearish; MACD histogram negative and expanding), so the stock may fail to bounce cleanly without a catalyst.
- No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh narrative tailwinds right now).
- Options liquidity/participation today is effectively absent (0 volume), reducing the strength of real-time sentiment confirmation.
- If price loses S1 (~~10.47), next notable support is closer to S2 (~~10.06), implying room for another leg down before stabilizing.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $134.967M, +9.79% YoY (steady top-line growth).
Net income: $10.495M, +152.53% YoY (profitability improved sharply).
EPS: $0.16, +433.33% YoY (strong earnings leverage vs prior year).
Gross margin: 100 (flat YoY as provided).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent update: 2026-01-20 Oppenheimer (Chris Kotowski) raised price target to $23 (from $20) and maintained Outperform.
Trend in ratings/targets: latest action is a bullish upward revision (PT increase), signaling improving confidence into the group’s Q4 preview.
Wall Street pros: meaningful implied upside vs current ~10.5; supportive of a re-rating if earnings/guide cooperate.
Wall Street cons: only one datapoint provided here; broader consensus breadth isn’t shown, so the view may be less diversified than it appears.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported as Neutral with no significant recent trends.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GCMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GCMG is 13.5 USD with a low forecast of 12.5 USD and a high forecast of 14.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 9.900

Low

12.5

Averages

13.5

High

14.5

Current: 9.900

Low

12.5

Averages

13.5

High

14.5

Oppenheimer

Chris Kotowski

Outperform

maintain

$20 -> $23

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

Reason

Oppenheimer

Chris Kotowski

Price Target

$20 -> $23

AI Analysis

2026-01-20

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer analyst Chris Kotowski raised the firm's price target on GCM Grosvenor to $23 from $20 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the alternative asset manager group as part of a Q4 preview.

TD Cowen

Hold

maintain

$13

2025-10-16

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$13

2025-10-16

maintain

Hold

Reason

TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on GCM Grosvenor to $13 from $12.50 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm attended its investor day that highlighted accelerating growth and expanded 2028E KPIs to include $1.20+ ANI target and several longer term guideposts. Cowen generally views the update favorably, though the expanded 2028E ANI guide is in line with their recent forecast.

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GCMG Should I Buy

GCMG Should I Buy

Should You Buy GCM Grosvenor Inc (GCMG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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