GCMG Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how GCMG performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, GCMG sees a -0.84% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.35% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.11%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
GCMG Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
165.26M
41.79%
34.43%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
27.53%
126.21%
26.98%
Net Margin
18.41%
369.64%
86.52%
EPS
0.09
--
200.00%
No Data Available
GCMG Earnings Analysis
GCM Grosvenor Inc Corporation (GCMG.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Earnings Per Share Beat: Grosvenor Capital Management reported an EPS of $0.27, exceeding expectations of $0.22.
Earnings Growth Surge: Fee-related earnings increased by 22% in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, while adjusted net income rose by 63%.
Fundraising Surge: Total fundraising reached $7.1 billion in 2024, marking a 40% increase from the previous year, with Q4 fundraising at $2.3 billion, the highest in over two years.
Private Markets Fee Growth: Private markets management fees increased by 20% in Q4 2024 compared to Q4 2023, contributing significantly to overall growth.
Quarterly Dividend Maintenance: The company maintained a quarterly dividend of $0.11 per share, resulting in a 3.2% dividend yield, with potential for future growth.
Negative
Compensation Expense Challenges: Fee-related earnings compensation declined sequentially to $35 million in Q4 2024, indicating potential challenges in managing compensation expenses despite growth in earnings.
Decline in Fee-Related Income: Expectations for lower catch-up fees of $2 million to $3 million in Q1 2025, down from over $7 million in Q4 2024, suggest a decline in fee-related income.
Revenue Generation Slowdown: The anticipated minimal catch-up fees in Q2 to Q4 of 2025 indicate a slowdown in revenue generation from existing funds, which could impact overall earnings growth.
Performance Fee Decline: Run rate annual performance fees entering 2025 stand at $30 million, reflecting a decrease in performance fee expectations compared to previous years.
Profitability Pressures: Despite a strong balance sheet, the muted carry realizations and the need to manage dilution through share repurchases indicate underlying pressures on profitability.
GCMG FAQs
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GCMG Earning Call Sentiment
Grosvenor Capital Management, L.P. (NASDAQ:GCMG) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
GCMG.O
-0.91%Positive
Despite some regulatory and market challenges, the company shows strong financial performance with a 63% increase in adjusted net income and a 40% increase in total fundraising. The positive sentiment is reinforced by optimistic guidance on margins and fundraising for 2025, as well as a significant share repurchase program. The Q&A highlights management's confidence in growth, particularly in private markets and retail distribution. The maintained dividend and share repurchase program further support a positive outlook, likely resulting in a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
