Not a good buy right now: price action/indicators are in a confirmed downtrend, and the statistical next-day/week bias is negative.
Oversold (RSI-6 ~16) can produce a bounce, but without a proprietary buy signal and with bearish trend structure, it’s a low-quality entry for an impatient buyer.
Earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-10 after-hours plus very elevated implied volatility increases event-risk; better to avoid initiating before the catalyst.
Activity: Today’s option volume 1,889 vs 30-day average (today vs avg ~174.6%) → unusual activity into a catalyst window.
Volatility: IV_30d 71.4 vs historical vol 50.56; IV percentile 91.24 → options are pricing a large move (earnings-driven risk).
Positioning detail: Call OI 36,919 vs put OI 7,784 reinforces upside-bet skew, but high IV means the market expects turbulence rather than a clean uptrend.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
near key support can trigger a reflex bounce.
supports operating leverage if growth re-accelerates.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Strong bearish trend structure: bearish MAs + expanding negative MACD indicates sellers still control the tape.
Recent analyst downgrade/cut: Piper Sandler moved to Neutral and slashed PT to $12 from $20, citing “seat-compression” and “vibe coding” multiple ceilings.
Sector narrative headwind: continued pessimism around software growth deceleration and AI-driven efficiency reducing seat growth.
Elevated implied volatility into 2026-02-10 earnings increases gap-risk; an impatient entry can be immediately underwater if results/guidance disappoint.
Near-term probabilities from similar patterns skew negative (next day/week).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $215.1M, +15.3% YoY (steady growth).
Profitability: Net income -$4.68M (more negative YoY per snapshot) and EPS -0.02 (worse YoY), implying profitability progress was not linear in the quarter.
Margins: Gross margin 84.68% (+0.79% YoY), still strong for software and supportive of longer-term leverage if opex discipline holds.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings have shifted more cautious—Piper Sandler downgraded to Neutral (PT cut to $12 from $20); BTIG initiated at Neutral.
Wall Street pros: durable mid-teens revenue growth, strong gross margin/FCF potential, and pricing power/feature expansion.
Wall Street cons: sector-wide multiple compression, AI/automation risks to customer support seat growth, and uncertainty in SMB demand; near-term sentiment currently cautious.
Wall Street analysts forecast FRSH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FRSH is 18.88 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FRSH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FRSH is 18.88 USD with a low forecast of 13 USD and a high forecast of 25 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 8.920
Low
13
Averages
18.88
High
25
Current: 8.920
Low
13
Averages
18.88
High
25
Piper Sandler
Brent Bracelin
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
$20 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
Reason
Piper Sandler
Brent Bracelin
Price Target
$20 -> $12
AI Analysis
2026-02-02
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin downgraded Freshworks to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $12, down from $20. The firm downgraded three names in the platforms and apps group, saying "seat-compression and vibe coding narratives could set a ceiling on multiples." Piper is not making a call on the Q4 reports. Rather, the analyst has mixed views on the software space despite share declines in the past 12 months. The firm expects continued "pessimism" around software and recommends investors focus on the hyperscaler, consumption and vertical sub-sectors.
Piper Sandler
Overweight -> Neutral
downgrade
$20 -> $12
2026-02-02
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$20 -> $12
2026-02-02
downgrade
Overweight -> Neutral
Reason
Piper Sandler downgraded Freshworks to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $12, down from $20, following a transfer of coverage. The firm downgraded three names and cut price targets across the platforms and apps group, saying "seat-compression and vibe coding narratives could set a ceiling on multiples." Piper is not making a call on the Q4 reports. Rather, the analyst has mixed views on the software space despite share declines in the past 12 months. The firm expects continued "pessimism" around software and recommends investors focus on the hyperscaler, consumption and vertical sub-sectors. Piper's top picks are Microsoft and ServiceTitan.
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