Should I Buy FCF? FCF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy First Commonwealth Financial Corp (FCF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

17.880

1 Day change

0.45%

52 Week Range

18.410

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

BUY now for a beginner long-term investor. FCF is in a constructive uptrend (bullish moving averages) and just delivered a strong 2025/Q4 quarter (double-digit revenue and EPS growth) plus a new $25M buyback—clear shareholder-friendly momentum. Near-term price action may wobble around support, but given your impatience and long-term focus, current levels ($17.60) are an attractive entry versus fresh Wall Street targets ($20–$21).

Technical Analysis

Trend is bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 signals an established uptrend. RSI(6)=51.85 is neutral (not overbought), suggesting room to move without being stretched. MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.00157) but contracting, indicating momentum has cooled a bit after the recent run-up rather than fully reversing. Key levels: Pivot 17.67 is essentially current price (17.60). Near-term support sits at S1=17.12 then S2=16.78; resistance is R1=18.22 then R2=18.56. Pattern-based projection suggests mild downside drift over 1 week to 1 month, but the broader trend remains positive, so dips toward ~17.1 would likely be bought.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning is bullish-leaning: open interest put/call ratio at 0.36 implies more calls than puts outstanding (optimistic sentiment/positioning). However, today’s option volume is extremely thin (only 1 contract; put volume=1, call volume=0), so sentiment read from volume is low-confidence. Implied volatility (30d) ~42.98 with IV percentile ~61 suggests moderately elevated option pricing versus its recent history, consistent with post-earnings/event interest but not extreme.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

2025/Q4 EPS beat ($0.43, +$0.01 vs expectations); 2025/Q4 revenue growth (+13.4% YoY per news, +15.75% YoY per financial snapshot); $25M share buyback authorization (EPS/return supportive); improving Wall Street tone with recent upgrades/initiations and higher targets; potential tailwind narrative from easing rates/steeper curve benefiting regional banks (per Piper Sandler outlook).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Short-term momentum is cooling (MACD positive but contracting) and price is slightly below pivot (17.67); statistical candlestick-based outlook flags modest downside bias over the next week/month; options liquidity is very low (hard to infer broad sentiment from volume); no notable hedge fund/insider accumulation signal (both neutral).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth was strong: revenue $129.213M (+15.75% YoY), net income $44.876M (+25.18% YoY), EPS $0.43 (+22.86% YoY). This combination points to improving profitability alongside revenue expansion, and the newly announced buyback can further support per-share results going forward.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst trend is improving and supportive. Recent actions: (1) Raymond James upgraded to Outperform with a $20 target (2026-01-07), citing above-peer profitability and expectation that credit noise fades in 2026. (2) Piper Sandler initiated/assumed coverage at Overweight with a $21 target (2025-12-17), constructive on the bank earnings backdrop into 2027. Wall Street pros: profitability, capital strength, balance sheet management, and a potentially improving rate environment. Cons: ongoing/regional-bank credit uncertainty is the key debate point, though the bull case expects it to fade.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FCF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FCF is 20 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 21 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 17.800

Low

Averages

High

Current: 17.800

Low

Averages

High

Keefe Bruyette

Kelly Motta

Market Perform

maintain

$19 -> $20

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

New

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Kelly Motta

Price Target

$19 -> $20

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

New

maintain

Market Perform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Kelly Motta raised the firm's price target on First Commonwealth to $20 from $19 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.

Raymond James

David Feaster

Market Perform -> Outperform

upgrade

$20

2026-01-07

Reason

Raymond James

David Feaster

Price Target

$20

2026-01-07

upgrade

Market Perform -> Outperform

Reason

Raymond James analyst David Feaster upgraded First Commonwealth to Outperform from Market Perform with a $20 price target. Recent share underperformance appears unjustified given above-peer profitability, solid long-term growth prospects, and expectations for credit-related noise to fade in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Strong capital levels, active balance sheet management, and resilient credit quality support the view that shares are positioned to outperform despite trading roughly in line with peers, the firm says.

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FCF Should I Buy

FCF Should I Buy

Should You Buy First Commonwealth Financial Corp (FCF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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