Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price ($164.92) is pressing near resistance (R1 $165.59 / R2 $167.91) after a strong run, leaving limited near-term upside vs. downside to support.
Trend is still bullish (stacked moving averages), but momentum is no longer clean (MACD histogram still below zero), suggesting upside may be choppy at this level.
Options positioning is strongly bullish (low put/call ratios), but insider selling has surged (+209% over the last month), a meaningful near-term headwind.
With earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-24 pre-market and no proprietary buy signals today, the better stance is HOLD (do not chase here).
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.155 (still below 0) but negatively contracting → downside momentum is fading, yet not a full bullish momentum reset.
RSI(6): 67.56 (upper-neutral, close to overbought) → suggests less attractive entry after the recent push.
Key levels: Pivot 161.84; resistance R1 165.59 and R2 167.91; supports S1 158.08 and S2 155.76. Current price is near R1 → unfavorable risk/reward for immediate entry.
Pattern-based forward view (similar candlesticks): mild bias (+2.18% next month), but near-term edge looks small (next day +0.16%, next week -0.09%).
Activity: Today’s option volume is light (8 total), but relative metrics show elevated vs. average (today vs 30D avg volume 5.56) → incremental interest despite low absolute volume.
Volatility: 30D IV 25.32 vs historical vol 17.64 → options pricing in elevated moves; IV percentile ~60 suggests mid-high relative richness.
Near-term takeaway: Options market leans bullish, but with the stock near resistance, call-skew can also reflect late-cycle chasing rather than fresh value entry.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
on 2026-02-24 pre-market could re-rate the stock if results/guide surprise higher.
Insider selling: selling activity up ~209% over the last month (notable confidence headwind).
Price is extended into resistance (R1/R2), increasing odds of a near-term stall/pullback.
Earnings event risk is imminent (late Feb): without a clear proprietary buy signal, buying right before results is not an “edge” setup.
Mixed Street view remains: some firms still carry bearish/underperform stances and lower targets (e.g., Wolfe Underperform; PT $142).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $2.894B, down -3.51% YoY → top-line contraction persists.
Net income: $222.3M, down -3.19% YoY → profits slightly down with revenue.
EPS: 1.64, up +0.61% YoY → modest per-share resilience.
Gross margin: 32.5%, up +9.50% YoY → the most constructive datapoint, signaling improving efficiency/mix despite softer demand.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Multiple target raises into late 2025/early 2026, plus notable upgrades (UBS to Buy; BofA to Buy) → improving bullish tilt overall.
Key bullish points from Wall Street: expected cyclical tailwinds and share gains/efficiency (BofA $179 PT; UBS $166 PT), with some viewing productivity gains as underappreciated.
Key bearish points from Wall Street: parts of transport cycle still muted and some see risk/reward unfavorable (e.g., Wolfe Underperform; $142 PT).
Net: Pros are getting more constructive, but targets are dispersed; at ~$165, the stock already sits above several Hold/Neutral targets and is only modestly below the nearest Buy target (UBS $166), limiting immediate upside appeal.
Wall Street analysts forecast EXPD stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXPD is 141.11 USD with a low forecast of 95 USD and a high forecast of 179 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EXPD stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXPD is 141.11 USD with a low forecast of 95 USD and a high forecast of 179 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
4 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 164.920
Low
95
Averages
141.11
High
179
Current: 164.920
Low
95
Averages
141.11
High
179
BofA
Neutral -> Buy
upgrade
$179
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$179
AI Analysis
2026-01-09
upgrade
Neutral -> Buy
Reason
BofA upgraded Expeditors to Buy from Neutral with a $179 price target. The firm looks to expand its exposure to cyclical Transport stocks into 2026, with a focus on cost conscious AI-enabled share gainers, the analyst tells investors in a year-ahead note on the sector. Demand should be aided by the Big Beautiful Bill's benefits of bonus depreciation, leading to infrastructure investments, $1.4 trillion in expected expenditures over the next three years on data centers and power supply, lower interest rates and potential flow through to the housing and forest product segments, the analyst says.
Wolfe Research
Scott Group
Underperform
maintain
$126 -> $142
2026-01-08
Reason
Wolfe Research
Scott Group
Price Target
$126 -> $142
2026-01-08
maintain
Underperform
Reason
Wolfe Research analyst Scott Group raised the firm's price target on Expeditors to $142 from $126 and keeps an Underperform rating on the shares. The firm said that transport has been stuck in a prolonged and muted cycle with the ISM manufacturing index below 50 for 36 of the past 38 months, and LTL tonnage has been negative year-over-year for 22 of the past 23 months. That said, truckload spot rates have materially outperformed normal seasonality for the past six weeks, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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