Should You Buy Exact Sciences Corp (EXAS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
102.300
1 Day change
0.05%
52 Week Range
102.660
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to act immediately. EXAS is trading primarily as a merger-arbitrage deal tied to Abbott’s $105 cash acquisition expected to close in Q2 2026, leaving only limited upside (~2–3%) from ~$102 and exposing you to deal-timing/regulatory/market risk rather than long-term compounding. If you already own it, holding for the deal spread can make sense; as a new long-term purchase, it’s not compelling.
Technical Analysis
Price is hovering around the pivot (~102.34) with tight nearby levels (S1 ~102.09 / S2 ~101.93; R1 ~102.59). Trend is mildly bullish on moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but momentum is soft: MACD histogram is negative (-0.448) though contracting (downside pressure easing), and RSI(6) is neutral (~48). Net: technically stable/sideways near support, consistent with a deal-priced stock rather than a breakout trend.
Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning looks mixed-to-slightly bullish short-term: open interest put/call ~1.02 is balanced (no strong hedging tilt either way), while volume put/call ~0.25 shows call-heavy trading interest. Implied volatility (30d ~41.68) is low versus its own history (IV percentile ~9.2), suggesting the market is not pricing in major surprise risk; volume is also below its 30-day average (~65%), reinforcing a muted sentiment typical of a stock pinned near a cash deal price.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
Abbott plans to finalize the acquisition in Q2 2026 at $105/share cash, which can pull EXAS toward the deal price if closing confidence improves.
Core business trend remains strong on the top line: 2025/Q3 revenue grew +20.05% YoY, supporting strategic rationale for the acquisition.
Call-heavy options volume suggests some traders lean toward the deal closing and/or small upside convergence to $105.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Limited upside: with EXAS near ~$102 versus $105 takeout, the return profile is capped and largely time-to-close dependent.
Abbott’s recent earnings/revenue miss and stock drop could increase perceived deal risk or delay concerns (even if not directly threatening the transaction).
Event risk: law firms investigating the sale process can add headline noise (usually not deal-breaking, but can slow/complicate).
Flow/sentiment: hedge funds are reported as selling heavily (selling amount up 614% over the last quarter), which can pressure the spread.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to ~$850.7M (+20.05% YoY), showing solid growth. However, profitability weakened: net income fell to about -$19.6M (more negative, -48.76% YoY), EPS declined to -$0.10 (-52.38% YoY), and gross margin slipped slightly to ~68.64% (-0.35% YoY). Overall: strong revenue growth but still loss-making and not showing improving earnings power yet—another reason the stock is currently trading more on the acquisition than fundamentals.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is overwhelmingly deal-driven: multiple firms downgraded EXAS to Hold/Neutral (Evercore, Stifel, Piper Sandler, Canaccord, TD Cowen, Benchmark, Nephron, Craig-Hallum, Guggenheim), and price targets converged around $105 after the Abbott acquisition announcement. Wall Street ‘pros’ view: clear cash takeout provides a defined value ceiling. ‘Cons’ view: after the deal, EXAS no longer trades on standalone upside, so risk/reward is mainly spread capture versus deal/timing risk—hence the wave of downgrades.
Wall Street analysts forecast EXAS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXAS is 100.2 USD with a low forecast of 78 USD and a high forecast of 105 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
20 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EXAS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXAS is 100.2 USD with a low forecast of 78 USD and a high forecast of 105 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
19 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 102.250
Low
78
Averages
100.2
High
105
Current: 102.250
Low
78
Averages
100.2
High
105
Evercore ISI
Outperform
to
In Line
downgrade
$105
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
Reason
Evercore ISI
Price Target
$105
AI Analysis
2026-01-05
downgrade
Outperform
to
In Line
Reason
Evercore ISI downgraded Exact Sciences to In Line from Outperform with an unchanged price target of $105.
Stifel
Buy
to
Hold
downgrade
$80 -> $105
2025-11-28
Reason
Stifel
Price Target
$80 -> $105
2025-11-28
downgrade
Buy
to
Hold
Reason
Stifel downgraded Exact Sciences (EXAS) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $105, up from $80, after the company announced an agreement to be acquired by Abbott (ABT) for $105 per share.
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