EARN Valuation

Ellington Credit Co

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5.655

-0.195(-3.333%)1D

Overview
Forecast
Valuation
Earnings

EARN Relative Valuation

EARN's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, EARN is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Ellington Credit Co (EARN) is now in the Undervalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 5.94 is considered Undervalued compared with the five-year average of 7.55. The fair price of Ellington Credit Co (EARN) is between 8.53 to 11.11 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 5.85 USD , Ellington Credit Co is Undervalued By 31.45%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

8.53-11.11

Current Price：5.85

31.45%

Undervalued

5.94

Trailing

Forward

0.00

EV/EBITDA

Ellington Credit Co. (EARN) has a current EV/EBITDA of 0.00. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 0.00. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.00, Undervalued between 0.00 and 0.00, Fairly Valued between 0.00 and 0.00, Overvalued between 0.00 and 0.00, and Strongly Overvalued above 0.00. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 0.00 falls within the Strongly Undervalued range.

0.00

EV/EBIT

Ellington Credit Co. (EARN) has a current EV/EBIT of 0.00. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 0.00. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.00, Undervalued between 0.00 and 0.00, Fairly Valued between 0.00 and 0.00, Overvalued between 0.00 and 0.00, and Strongly Overvalued above 0.00. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 0.00 falls within the Strongly Undervalued range.

4.55

Ellington Credit Co. (EARN) has a current PS of 4.55. The 5-year average PS is 11.54. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -25.89, Undervalued between -25.89 and -7.17, Fairly Valued between 30.26 and -7.17, Overvalued between 30.26 and 48.98, and Strongly Overvalued above 48.98. The current Forward PS of 4.55 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

0.00

P/OCF

Ellington Credit Co. (EARN) has a current P/OCF of 0.00. The 5-year average P/OCF is 0.00. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.00, Undervalued between 0.00 and 0.00, Fairly Valued between 0.00 and 0.00, Overvalued between 0.00 and 0.00, and Strongly Overvalued above 0.00. The current Forward P/OCF of 0.00 falls within the Strongly Undervalued range.

0.00

P/FCF

Ellington Credit Co. (EARN) has a current P/FCF of 0.00. The 5-year average P/FCF is 0.00. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 0.00, Undervalued between 0.00 and 0.00, Fairly Valued between 0.00 and 0.00, Overvalued between 0.00 and 0.00, and Strongly Overvalued above 0.00. The current Forward P/FCF of 0.00 falls within the Strongly Undervalued range.

Ellington Credit Co (EARN) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 0.98. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 0.90 , the current P/B ratio is approximately 8.67% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 0.90, the current P/B ratio is about 9.13% higher. Ellington Credit Co (EARN) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 8.69%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 5.74%, the current FCF yield is approximately 51.40% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 11.09% , the current FCF yield is about -21.62% lower.

0.98

P/B

Median3y

0.90

Median5y

0.90

8.69

FCF Yield

Median3y

5.74

Median5y

11.09

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for EARN's competitors is 4.49, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Ellington Credit Co Corp (EARN) exhibits a P/S ratio of 4.55, which is 1.34% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -140.04%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

Angel Oak Mortgage REIT Inc

Ares Commercial Real Estate Corp

4.90

-30.25%

245.87M

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of EARN decreased by 6.55% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an decrease in Margin Expansion from -30.30 to -126.26.

The secondary factor is the Revenue Growth, contributed -140.04%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of EARN in the past 1 year is driven by Margin Expansion. Which is more sustainable.

-140.04%

16.10M → -6.45M

Revenue Growth

316.70%

-30.30 → -126.26

Margin Expansion

-183.21%

37.47 → -31.18

P/E Change

-6.55%