Should You Buy Carvana Co (CVNA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
410.040
1 Day change
-14.17%
52 Week Range
486.890
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor. Despite strong recent growth and broadly bullish Wall Street targets, today’s sharp selloff is tied to serious profitability/accounting allegations and legal investigation headlines that can keep the stock under pressure and unpredictable until clarity emerges (and potentially into the next earnings).
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: CVNA fell -14.17% in the regular session and is ~411 post-market, breaking below the pivot (439.617). Near-term trend is bearish due to the sharp breakdown, even though longer-term structure still looks bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-3.705) and expanding lower, signaling worsening downside momentum. RSI_6 ~25 is consistent with an oversold/washed-out condition, which can spark bounces, but it does not confirm a durable bottom on its own.
Levels: Immediate support S1 ~396.764 (then S2 ~370.29). Reclaiming the pivot ~439.617 would be the first sign of stabilization. Resistance levels: ~482.47 then ~508.944.
Pattern-based forward odds: Similar-pattern stats indicate a modest rebound bias (next month +7.13% probability/expectation), but today’s move is event-driven and can override pattern tendencies.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is defensive/bearish: both open interest and volume put-call ratios are above 1, implying heavier put positioning and/or hedging demand. Implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~67.16; HV ~78.43), consistent with uncertainty around headlines and upcoming catalysts. Overall, options positioning does not signal “clean risk-on” sentiment right now.
- Operating momentum (per analyst notes): expectations for solid unit growth and potential “beat and raise” narrative into the next report.
- Hedge funds trend: reported as net buying, with buying amount up ~114% quarter-over-quarter.
- Next earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 (after hours), which could reset the narrative if results and disclosures are clean/strong.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Major event-driven shock: Gotham City Research alleges CVNA overstated earnings by over $1B; this triggered a sharp drawdown (~15%+) and can keep sentiment fragile.
- Technical damage: breakdown below pivot with negative/expanding MACD suggests sellers still control the tape near-term.
- Options market skew: put-heavy ratios (OI and volume) indicate caution/hedging, not broad bullish positioning.
- No supportive proprietary signals today (no AI Stock Picker or SwingMax entry).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue $5.647B (+54.50% YoY), Net Income $151M (+77.65% YoY), EPS $1.03 (+60.94% YoY) show strong top-line and profitability growth.
Margin: Gross margin declined to 20.33 (-7.93% YoY), indicating some pressure on unit economics even as revenue and earnings rose.
Takeaway: Fundamentals recently looked strong, but today’s headline risk is about the quality/sustainability of profitability—until addressed, the market may discount these results.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Strongly improving/bullish—multiple price target raises in January (JPMorgan to $510, Wells Fargo to $525, Barclays to $530) following prior increases in December (Citi/Jefferies to $550, Wedbush to $500, Argus initiation Buy $500). Morgan Stanley kept Overweight with $450 PT and lifted bull case to $750.
Wall Street pros view (bull case): accelerating unit growth, improving profitability trajectory, share gains vs peers, and expansion beyond used cars via dealership acquisitions.
Wall Street cons view (key risk now dominating): the new report-driven allegations and legal scrutiny can compress the multiple and delay upside regardless of targets, until the company credibly resolves concerns.
Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; insider trend noted as neutral.
Wall Street analysts forecast CVNA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVNA is 475.88 USD with a low forecast of 360 USD and a high forecast of 550 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
18 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CVNA stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CVNA is 475.88 USD with a low forecast of 360 USD and a high forecast of 550 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 477.720
Low
360
Averages
475.88
High
550
Current: 477.720
Low
360
Averages
475.88
High
550
JPMorgan
Overweight
maintain
$490 -> $510
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$490 -> $510
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
JPMorgan raised the firm's price target on Carvana to $510 from $490 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares as part of a Q4 earnings preview. The firm cites strong unit growth assumptions for the target boost. It expects Carvana to report a "solid beat and raise" in Q4, but reduced estimates slightly to reflect modestly lower pricing and slightly higher spending to factor in new vehicle franchise acquisitions.
Wells Fargo
David Lantz
Overweight
maintain
$500 -> $525
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Wells Fargo
David Lantz
Price Target
$500 -> $525
2026-01-27
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst David Lantz raised the firm's price target on Carvana to $525 from $500 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Late January and February Auto Service/eAuto prints screen mixed and Winter Storm Fern could drive near-term volatility. Wells sees a retail unit beat for Carvana with strong quarter-to-date.
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