Technical Analysis:
Based on the recent price action, CRWD has experienced significant volatility with a sharp decline of -6.75% during regular market hours on February 21, 2025, closing at $406.68. The stock is showing signs of technical weakness with RSI-6 at 28.66 indicating oversold conditions in the short term.
News Impact Analysis:
The recent decline was primarily triggered by two major events:
- DOJ and SEC Investigation:
- Investigation into a $32 million deal with Carahsoft Technology Corp for IRS cybersecurity tools
- The deal was finalized on the last day of Q3 2023 but the IRS never purchased the products
- This has raised concerns about accounting practices and revenue recognition
- Market Sentiment:
- Despite negative news, analysts remain largely bullish on CRWD with 32 "Strong Buy" ratings out of 44 analysts
- The company recently announced breakthrough in agentic AI with Charlotte AI, showing 98% accuracy in detection triage
Price Projection for Next Week:
Based on Fibonacci levels and technical indicators:
- Support levels: $400.85 (Fibonacci S2)
- Resistance levels: $451.90 (Fibonacci R1)
Expected price ranges for next week:
- Bearish scenario (40% probability): $380-400 if investigation concerns escalate
- Neutral scenario (35% probability): $400-420 range-bound trading
- Bullish scenario (25% probability): $420-440 if market sentiment improves
Trading Recommendation:
SELL with target entry at current levels ($405-410)
- Set stop loss at $432.40 (Fibonacci pivot)
- First target: $400.85 (Fibonacci S2)
- Second target: $381.35 (Fibonacci S3)
Rationale:
- Ongoing DOJ/SEC investigation creates near-term uncertainty
- Oversold conditions may provide temporary bounces but overall trend appears bearish
- Upcoming earnings on March 4 could bring additional volatility
Technical Analysis:
Based on the recent price action, CRWD has experienced significant volatility with a sharp decline of -6.75% during regular market hours on February 21, 2025, closing at $406.68. The stock is showing signs of technical weakness with RSI-6 at 28.66 indicating oversold conditions in the short term.
News Impact Analysis:
The recent decline was primarily triggered by two major events:
- DOJ and SEC Investigation:
- Investigation into a $32 million deal with Carahsoft Technology Corp for IRS cybersecurity tools
- The deal was finalized on the last day of Q3 2023 but the IRS never purchased the products
- This has raised concerns about accounting practices and revenue recognition
- Market Sentiment:
- Despite negative news, analysts remain largely bullish on CRWD with 32 "Strong Buy" ratings out of 44 analysts
- The company recently announced breakthrough in agentic AI with Charlotte AI, showing 98% accuracy in detection triage
Price Projection for Next Week:
Based on Fibonacci levels and technical indicators:
- Support levels: $400.85 (Fibonacci S2)
- Resistance levels: $451.90 (Fibonacci R1)
Expected price ranges for next week:
- Bearish scenario (40% probability): $380-400 if investigation concerns escalate
- Neutral scenario (35% probability): $400-420 range-bound trading
- Bullish scenario (25% probability): $420-440 if market sentiment improves
Trading Recommendation:
SELL with target entry at current levels ($405-410)
- Set stop loss at $432.40 (Fibonacci pivot)
- First target: $400.85 (Fibonacci S2)
- Second target: $381.35 (Fibonacci S3)
Rationale:
- Ongoing DOJ/SEC investigation creates near-term uncertainty
- Oversold conditions may provide temporary bounces but overall trend appears bearish
- Upcoming earnings on March 4 could bring additional volatility