Should I Buy CRNC? CRNC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Cerence Inc (CRNC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

11.760

1 Day change

-5.01%

52 Week Range

16.740

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. The stock is in a short-term uptrend, but it’s trading near resistance with very high options-implied volatility, insiders have been heavy sellers recently, and the only recent Wall Street view is Neutral with a $11 target (below the current ~$12.37). If you must act now, this is closer to a “watch/hold” than a confident long-term buy.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) indicates an established uptrend. Momentum: RSI(6)=67.35 (upper-neutral, getting closer to overbought but not extreme). MACD histogram is slightly negative (-0.00147) but “negatively contracting,” implying downside momentum is fading and the uptrend may be trying to persist. Levels: Pivot 11.715. Price ~12.37 is above pivot and pushing into resistance. Nearby resistance R1=12.403 (very close) and R2=12.827. Supports: S1=11.027, S2=10.603. Tactical read: With price sitting just under R1, risk/reward for an impatient entry is not attractive—more upside is possible, but a pullback toward ~11.7 is also plausible. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Both put/call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.42; volume PCR 0.2), which is bullish/“call-heavy” positioning. Volatility: 30D IV 116.39 vs historical vol 84.54 (IV elevated). IV percentile 76 suggests options are pricing in large moves. Flow/participation: Today’s volume (1,075) is below the 5–10D averages (1,255–1,355) and only ~80.83% of the 30D average—sentiment is bullish, but today’s activity isn’t unusually strong. Implication: Options market leans bullish, but the very high IV means the market is also expecting instability; for long-term beginners, that reduces the attractiveness of chasing at resistance.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

with Neusoft to integrate LLM-based voice AI into automotive solutions—positive for product relevance and potential future wins.
to 72.55% (+15.78% YoY), a constructive quality-of-revenue signal.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Insiders are selling: insider selling amount increased sharply (+8776.61% last month), which is a notable negative signal.
Analyst stance is Neutral with a $11 target (below current price), implying limited upside per that coverage.
Pattern-based forward odds provided: model suggests a negative 1-month expectation (-8.17%), despite positive next-day/week probabilities.
Upcoming earnings (2026-02-04 after hours) can be a volatility catalyst; options already price large moves (very high IV).

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue: $60.64M, +10.65% YoY (top-line growth improving). Profitability: Net income -$13.36M (worse YoY by -34.56%); EPS -0.31 (worse YoY by -36.73%). Margins: Gross margin 72.55%, up +15.78% YoY (strong improvement). Takeaway: Good revenue growth and strong margin expansion, but losses deepened—financial momentum is mixed rather than clearly improving end-to-end.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent change (2025-11-20): Goldman Sachs kept a Neutral rating and raised price target to $11 from $10, citing a solid quarter and FY26 guidance uplift (helped by a legal settlement) but wanting clearer evidence of sustained core acceleration (e.g., new xUI wins). Wall Street pros view (from provided data): Pros: Operational traction signals (beat/guide lift; margin improvement; constructive core growth commentary). Cons: Neutral rating persists, and the $11 target is below the current price—suggesting the stock may already be ahead of near-term fundamental confidence. Influential/political trading: No recent Congress trading data available. No politician activity provided. Insider activity is the key notable “influential” flow here and it is negative (net selling).

2 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast CRNC stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CRNC is 10.5 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 12.380

Low

Averages

10.5

High

Current: 12.380

Low

Averages

10.5

High

Goldman Sachs

Neutral

maintain

$10 -> $11

AI Analysis

2025-11-20

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$10 -> $11

AI Analysis

2025-11-20

maintain

Neutral

Reason

Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Cerence to $11 from $10 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Cerence posted a solid quarter, beating revenue and EBITDA expectations and issuing FY26 guidance boosted by a sizable legal settlement, while core metrics like pricing per unit and expected 8% FY26 core growth showed constructive traction, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Backlog and penetration rates remain flat, and Goldman says it wants to see clearer evidence of sustained core-business acceleration, potentially via new xUI wins.

TD Cowen

Itay Michaeli

Hold

maintain

$10 -> $11

2025-08-07

Reason

TD Cowen

Itay Michaeli

Price Target

$10 -> $11

2025-08-07

maintain

Hold

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli raised the firm's price target on Cerence to $11 from $10 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm notes Cerence reported a Q3 beat and raised FY25 guidance. New business progress was encouraging including an xUI deal within the VW Group. TD Cowen remains constructive on the GenAI penetration story and Cerence's positioning.

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CRNC Should I Buy

CRNC Should I Buy

Should You Buy Cerence Inc (CRNC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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