Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.

Overview

The earnings call highlights strong financial performance with significant free cash flow and a robust share repurchase program. Despite some challenges, such as decreased EBITDA in certain segments, management's optimistic guidance, strategic investments, and growth potential in key markets like Kentucky and Virginia positively impact sentiment. The Q&A section reinforces this with positive expectations for pricing, market expansion, and strategic initiatives. Overall, the company's proactive strategies and shareholder-friendly actions suggest a positive stock price movement in the short term.

Key Financial Performance

Net Revenue All-time record of $934 million, marking the fifth consecutive second quarter of record-setting net revenue. No specific reasons for the increase were mentioned.

Adjusted EBITDA All-time record of $451 million, marking the fifth consecutive second quarter of record-setting adjusted EBITDA. Growth attributed to strong performance in HRM growth in Kentucky and Virginia.

Live and Historical Racing Segment Adjusted EBITDA $17 million or 6% growth year-over-year, driven primarily by HRM growth in Kentucky and Virginia.

Churchill Downs Racetrack Adjusted EBITDA Down $1 million (less than 1%) year-over-year, attributed to a high prior year comparison due to the 150th Kentucky Derby.

HRM Properties in Kentucky Growth in the second quarter compared to the prior year, with strong performance from Northern Kentucky and Louisville HRM venues and the opening of the Owensboro, Kentucky HRM venue in February 2025.

Virginia HRM Properties Over $8 million growth year-over-year, driven by Northern Virginia, Richmond, and Emporia properties. Higher handle tax rate impacted results.

Wagering Services and Solutions Segment Adjusted EBITDA Increased by nearly $2 million or 4% year-over-year, with contributions from Exacta business and record wagering on Derby Week.

TwinSpires Horse Racing Adjusted EBITDA Slightly down year-over-year due to higher legal expenses, despite record wagering on Derby Week.

Gaming Segment Adjusted EBITDA Decreased by $3.1 million year-over-year, impacted by normalized gaming tax rates in Indiana and the relocation of HRM machines from Louisiana to Virginia and Kentucky.

Free Cash Flow $455 million or $6.29 per share in the first half of 2025, primarily from strong business cash flow.

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Operating Highlights

Kentucky Derby Week: Expanded into a week-long celebration with 370,000 attendees in 2025. Achieved nearly the same level of adjusted EBITDA as 2024 despite weather challenges. Five growth catalysts identified: ticketing revenue, broadcast rights, wagering, sponsorship and licensing, and strategic renovations.

HRM Facilities: Progress in Virginia with The Rose Gaming revenues growing monthly. Richmond HRM venue expansion on schedule. Roseshire Gaming Parlor in Henrico County to open in October 2025. Marshall Yards HRM facility in Kentucky to open in Q1 2026.

New Hampshire Casino Project: Acquired 90% of Casino Salem project. Plans to develop a state-of-the-art gaming and entertainment destination. Temporary facility operating with 100 HRMs and 13 table games.

Exacta Business: Growth through HRM operations in Kentucky and Virginia and third-party relationships. New HRM roulette product developed with Interblock. Expansion into Wichita, Kansas, and New Hampshire.

Broadcast Rights: New 7-year contract with NBC starting in 2026, providing a $10 million increase in adjusted EBITDA. Kentucky Oaks race to be broadcast in prime time for the first time.

Wagering: Record-breaking wagering on Derby race, Derby Day, and Derby Week. Partnerships with FanDuel and DraftKings set new records.

Sponsorship and Licensing: Growth in sponsorships and licensing driven by increased national and global reach.

Financial Performance: Record net revenue of $934 million and adjusted EBITDA of $451 million in Q2 2025. Live and Historical Racing segment represented nearly 2/3 of adjusted EBITDA.

Capital Management: Generated $455 million in free cash flow in H1 2025. Reduced maintenance capital projection by $10 million. New $500 million stock repurchase program approved.

Strategic Investments: Renovations at Churchill Downs Racetrack, including Starting Gate Pavilion and Courtyard project. Planning new project between First Turn building and The Skye Terrace.

Tax Benefits: Federal tax bill signed on July 4, making 21% business tax rate and 100% bonus depreciation permanent. Expected to reduce cash taxes by $50-$60 million in 2025.

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Risk or Challenges

Weather Impact on Derby Day: The company faced challenges in achieving the same level of adjusted EBITDA in 2025 as in 2024 due to adverse weather conditions on Derby Day.

Virginia Handle Tax Rate: The gaming tax rate in Virginia increased due to the rise in the number of HRMs, impacting profitability. However, the rate will transition to a slightly lower percentage in the future.

Competition in Virginia: Some Virginia properties experienced marginal declines in performance due to competition near a few locations, which reduced the level of unrated play.

Louisiana HRM Machine Relocation: The relocation of approximately 500 HRM machines from Louisiana to other states impacted the comparability of Louisiana's results to the prior year.

Gaming Tax Rate in Indiana: The gaming tax rate in Indiana normalized at a higher long-term rate, impacting profitability compared to the prior year.

Unrated Player Trends: Unrated player trends in regional gaming properties were comparable to the prior quarter, indicating no significant growth in this segment.

Legal Expenses for TwinSpires: Higher legal expenses for TwinSpires Horse Racing slightly reduced adjusted EBITDA compared to the prior year.

Supply Chain and Project Timelines: While most projects are on time and on budget, any future delays or cost overruns could pose risks to strategic execution.

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Guidance & Outlook

Kentucky Derby and Derby Week Growth: The company anticipates meaningful growth for the Kentucky Derby in 2026 and beyond, driven by five catalysts: ticketing revenue from premium experiences, a new 7-year broadcast contract with NBC starting in 2026, record-breaking wagering growth, increased sponsorship and licensing, and strategic capital investments in venue renovations and expansions.

HRM Facilities Expansion: The company is progressing on multiple HRM projects, including the Marshall Yards HRM facility in Kentucky (opening Q1 2026), the Roseshire Gaming Parlor in Virginia (opening October 2025), and the acquisition of the Casino Salem project in New Hampshire (closing in Q3 2025). These projects are expected to drive future growth.

Wagering Services and Solutions: The company plans to expand its Exacta business through HRM operations in Kentucky, Virginia, and New Hampshire, as well as a new third-party facility in Kansas (opening late 2025 or early 2026). New HRM roulette products are also being developed to enhance guest experiences.

Capital Management and Share Repurchases: The company expects to spend $250-$290 million on project capital in 2025 and has announced a new $500 million stock repurchase program. Bank covenant net leverage is expected to remain in the low 4x range for 2025 and decline below 4.0x in 2026.

Tax Benefits and Free Cash Flow: The federal tax bill signed in July 2025 is expected to reduce cash taxes by $50-$60 million in 2025, enhancing free cash flow. The company expects sustained benefits from the permanent 21% business tax rate and 100% bonus depreciation rule.

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Shareholder Return Plan

Share Repurchase Program: We repurchased over $250 million of our stock in the second quarter under our share repurchase program. This week, we announced that our Board approved a new common stock repurchase program of up to $500 million. This reflects our strong belief in the future growth of our company.

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Key Q&A

Q:What are the expectations around pricing at the lower end, specifically at the Starting Gate Pavilion for the Derby next year?

A:The Starting Gate Pavilion, introduced last year, received rave reviews. Management expects increased demand and pricing for this section due to word-of-mouth and the positive reception of the improvements.

Q:How does management see the New Hampshire market evolving in terms of investment, returns, and competitive landscape?

A:Management is optimistic about the New Hampshire market, particularly the Salem location at Rockingham Park mall. They highlighted its strategic location near Boston suburbs, strong demographics, and ease of access. The facility will include HRM and full table games, making it competitive with other regional facilities. However, detailed plans will be disclosed after the deal closes.

Q:What is the plan to grow international attendance for the Derby and improve international marketing?

A:Management is focusing on building the international component of the Kentucky Derby through initiatives like the European, Middle Eastern, and Japanese roads to the Derby. They aim to attract high-end consumers and sponsorships. Progress is expected by 2026. Social media efforts are also being developed internationally.

Q:What are the impacts of the federal tax bill on cash tax savings and capital allocation?

A:The company expects $50 million to $60 million in cash tax savings in 2025 and a similar impact in 2026 due to 100% bonus depreciation and full interest deductibility. Capital allocation priorities include investing in the Derby, HRM venues, and growing dividends by 7% annually. Share repurchases are considered when the stock is undervalued.

Q:What is the growth potential for HRM facilities in Kentucky and Virginia?

A:Management sees substantial growth potential in both states, with strong metrics and optimism for continued demand. They plan to execute their strategies to sustain growth.

Q:What is the view on prediction markets in horse racing and their impact on the Derby?

A:Management does not see prediction markets as a concern for the Derby or horse racing due to the nature of pari-mutuel wagering and protections under the Interstate Horseracing Act, which requires content producer approval for wagering activities.

Q:Does the New Hampshire deal represent a pipeline of M&A opportunities in the region?

A:Management is focused on the Salem project as the best opportunity in the region. They acknowledge potential changes and developments in the state over the next few years and will monitor the market.

Q:What is the strategic goal of the Kentucky Oaks schedule change?

A:The schedule change aims to increase national awareness of the Oaks, drive wagering, sponsorship opportunities, and attendance. It also serves as a promotional lead-in to the Kentucky Derby.

Q:What are the plans for the area between the First Turn and The Skye Terrace?

A:Management is refining cost estimates and plans for this area, which currently lacks a major structure. They aim to present a detailed plan in the next earnings call. The project will not disrupt the 2026 Derby.

Q:How do sponsorship relationships work, and is there room for growth?

A:Sponsorships are now about curating win-win partnerships. Management is focused on building relationships that align with the Derby's brand and sees increased international interest as an opportunity for growth.

Q:What are the strategies to drive trial and repeat visitation at The Rose in Northern Virginia?

A:Management is focused on building brand awareness, driving sampling, and growing the database. They are investing in the market to build customer relationships and expect consistent improvement over time.

Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses

A:Management avoided providing specific details about their plans for the New Hampshire market, citing restrictions due to ongoing approval processes. They also did not provide detailed cost estimates or timing for the project between the First Turn and The Skye Terrace, promising more information in the next earnings call.

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Earnings Word Cloud

The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call

CHDN Transcript

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Churchill Downs Incorporated (CHDN) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

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The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with record EBITDA and significant shareholder returns through dividends and share repurchases. Despite some challenges, such as weather impacts and macroeconomic uncertainties, the company maintains growth in key areas and offers optimistic guidance for future events like the Derby. The Q&A reveals some hesitancy in lower-tier markets but overall strong demand and growth opportunities. The combination of strong financial metrics, optimistic future outlook, and shareholder-friendly actions suggests a positive sentiment, likely leading to a stock price increase.

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