Should You Buy CalciMedica Inc (CALC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Sell
Latest Price
1.250
1 Day change
-75.59%
52 Week Range
7.200
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
CALC is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k who is impatient about entry timing. The stock’s collapse is driven by a fundamental, event-driven hit (Phase 2 trial halted for safety concerns), and the chart/flow data does not show a confirmed bottom or a proprietary buy signal. This is a high-binary outcome biotech situation with elevated downside and financing risk after the trial halt.
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: CALC is in a sharp bearish trend after an extreme gap/down move (regular market -77.42%; pre-market -83.44%), consistent with a major negative catalyst.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.365 and negatively expanding confirms bearish momentum is still increasing rather than stabilizing.
Overbought/Oversold: RSI(6) at 6.377 is deeply oversold, which can trigger short bounces, but oversold is not a buy signal by itself when the downtrend is accelerating.
Moving Averages: Converging moving averages suggests the prior structure has been disrupted and the market is re-pricing the stock; no clear trend reversal confirmation is indicated.
Levels: Key support/resistance shows S2 ~0.726 as a next major downside level; S1 1.936 is now overhead (likely resistance after the breakdown). Pivot 3.895 is far above, reflecting how severe the breakdown is.
Pattern-based short-term odds: Similar-pattern stats imply limited near-term upside (+0.69% next day) but continued downside bias (-6.08% next week; -7.02% next month).
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Positive Catalysts
2026/01/28 12:51:44
Potential future catalyst would be any clear update that addresses the safety concern (e.g., protocol amendment, trial restart) or unexpectedly strong clinical data from other workstreams. The company previously indicated anticipation of key KOURAGE trial data in 1H 2026 (timing now uncertain after the halt).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
2026/01/28 12:51:44
Primary negative catalyst: Phase 2 KOURAGE trial for Auxora halted due to safety concerns (major fundamental de-risking against the program), which triggered the crash.
Follow-on risks: prolonged trial suspension/termination, regulatory scrutiny, loss of partner/investor confidence, and likely financing/dilution pressure given limited cash runway for a clinical-stage biotech.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Revenue remained effectively zero (no meaningful commercial revenue). Net loss was -$7.804M (improved 38.91% YoY), and EPS was -0.52 (improved 4% YoY). The overall picture is still a pre-revenue biotech burning cash; the key driver is clinical viability rather than operating growth. News also cited a cash position of ~$14.1M (as of 2026-01-21), which can constrain runway and increase dilution risk, especially after a clinical hold.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating or price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a recent trend cannot be confirmed here. Given the Phase 2 safety-related halt, Wall Street’s typical pro/con framing would skew negative: Pros—any resolution of safety issues or trial restart could re-rate the stock; Cons—safety signal can permanently impair the lead asset’s probability of success and funding access, which often outweighs technical oversold conditions.
Wall Street analysts forecast CALC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CALC is 20 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CALC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CALC is 20 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
