Should You Buy Cheesecake Factory Inc (CAKE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
57.880
1 Day change
1.40%
52 Week Range
69.700
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. CAKE’s longer-term trend looks constructive (bullish moving-average stack), but short-term momentum is weakening (MACD negative and expanding), analysts are mostly cautious (multiple Underweight/Hold/Neutral views with limited upside from here), and insider selling has surged. If you must deploy capital now, this is better treated as a “watch/hold” rather than an aggressive long-term buy at $58.
Technical Analysis
Trend/momentum: The moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which supports an overall uptrend. However, the MACD histogram is -0.378 and negatively expanding, signaling fading momentum and increasing downside pressure in the near term. RSI(6) at ~51 is neutral, offering no strong “oversold” support.
Key levels: Price $58.03 is below the pivot (59.027), which is a mild bearish near-term positioning. Support sits at S1 57.031 (then S2 55.798). Resistance is at R1 61.023 (then R2 62.256). Practical read: the chart says “uptrend, but currently pulling back/losing steam,” meaning a buy here has worse timing risk than buying closer to support.
Quant pattern outlook provided: Similar-pattern stats imply ~-0.46% over the next week and +1.21% over the next month—modest upside, not a strong edge for an immediate entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from options: Open interest put/call at 0.48 is call-heavy (generally bullish positioning). Volume put/call at 0.88 is closer to balanced, only slightly call-leaning.
Volatility context: 30D IV ~36.86 vs historical vol ~35.79 (slightly elevated IV), IV percentile ~49.6 (mid-range). Today’s volume is ~77.7% of 30-day average (not a spike), while open interest is elevated vs average (~120%). Bottom line: Options positioning is mildly bullish but not showing strong “capitulation” or urgency that would override the weakening MACD.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
1) Fundamentals are still growing: 2025/Q3 showed YoY gains in revenue, net income, and EPS.
2) Longer-term technical structure remains positive (bullish SMA stack), suggesting pullbacks can be bought selectively.
3) Upcoming earnings on 2026-02-19 (after hours) can act as a catalyst if comps/margins surprise positively.
4) Options open interest is call-skewed (OI put/call 0.48), implying a modestly bullish positioning backdrop.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Momentum deterioration: MACD is negative and worsening, increasing risk of a near-term dip toward $57/$56 support.
2) Insider activity: Insiders are Selling, with selling amount up ~234.86% over the last month—often a headwind for near-term confidence.
3) Wall Street caution: Recent notes include downgrades/Underweight stances; upside may be limited without a clear traffic/comps re-acceleration.
4) No supportive news flow in the past week (no fresh positive catalysts currently driving demand).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): Revenue $907.226M (+4.82% YoY), Net Income $31.899M (+6.35% YoY), EPS $0.66 (+8.20% YoY), Gross Margin 75.19% (+0.91% YoY). Overall read: steady, modest growth with improving profitability metrics—good for a long-term story, but not strong enough alone to offset near-term momentum/positioning concerns at the current price.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets were nudged up at BofA ($66, Neutral) and modestly at Morgan Stanley/Barclays (both Underweight, low-$50s), but sentiment has tilted more cautious with Raymond James downgrading to Market Perform after the stock reached their prior target. Freedom initiated at Hold ($56).
Wall Street pros: Brand portfolio quality and underappreciated smaller growth concepts; steady financial growth.
Wall Street cons: Macro/traffic and comp pressure concerns; multiple Underweight ratings suggest valuation/upside may be capped without clear, sustained traffic improvement.
Influential buyers/sellers: No recent Congress trading data available. Hedge funds are described as Neutral with no significant quarterly trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast CAKE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAKE is 59.29 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
15 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast CAKE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CAKE is 59.29 USD with a low forecast of 49 USD and a high forecast of 70 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
4 Hold
4 Sell
Hold
Current: 57.080
Low
49
Averages
59.29
High
70
Current: 57.080
Low
49
Averages
59.29
High
70
BofA
Neutral
maintain
$65 -> $66
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$65 -> $66
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Cheesecake Factory to $66 from $65 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm is fine-tuning estimates for 22 restaurant companies across its coverage and adjusting select price targets to reflect estimate and valuation multiple changes.
Raymond James
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
2026-01-21
Reason
Raymond James
Price Target
2026-01-21
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Raymond James downgraded Cheesecake Factory to Market Perform from Outperform. The stock is fairly valued after achieving the firm's price target, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Further multiple expansion from here could require sustained traffic improvement at Cheescake Factory and a return to positive comps at North Italia, the firm says.
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