Stock Price Prediction

Based on the recent news and technical analysis, here's the price prediction for BTI for the next trading week:

Technical Analysis

The Fibonacci levels indicate strong support at $35.17 and resistance at $37.57. The RSI at 65.66 suggests the stock is approaching overbought territory but not yet overextended. The 20-day SMA at $36.43 is acting as immediate resistance, while the 200-day SMA at $33.82 provides long-term support.

News Impact Analysis Two major positive catalysts have emerged recently:

1. Trump administration's withdrawal of FDA's menthol cigarette ban. This is significantly positive for BTI as menthol cigarettes account for approximately 25% of BTI's global operating profit.

2. A Texas federal judge blocked FDA's graphic warning label requirement, which would have negatively impacted cigarette packaging and advertising.

Price Targets for Next Week

• Bullish scenario (60% probability): $37.50-38.30
• Base scenario (30% probability): $36.30-37.00
• Bearish scenario (10% probability): $35.20-36.00

Trading Recommendation SELL at current levels ($36.37). While recent regulatory developments are positive, technical indicators suggest the stock is approaching overbought territory. Additionally, the stock has already rallied significantly from its recent lows, and profit-taking is likely in the short term.

Key risks to watch:

• Potential settlement in Canadian litigation could impact earnings
• Continued decline in traditional cigarette volumes
• Currency headwinds affecting international operations

The stock may see resistance around $37.57 (Fibonacci R1) in the coming week, suggesting limited upside potential from current levels. Traders should consider taking profits and waiting for a pullback to $35.17 (Fibonacci S1) for new entry opportunities.