Should You Buy Sierra Bancorp (BSRR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
34.550
1 Day change
52 Week Range
36.790
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who doesn’t want to wait for better entry points. The -11.90% pre-market move plus extremely elevated implied volatility (suggesting event risk) outweigh the otherwise decent longer-term moving-average uptrend. I would hold off and only consider buying after the price stabilizes back above ~34.85 (pivot) or proves it can hold support without further downside.
Technical Analysis
Trend/levels: Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which supports the longer-term uptrend. However, momentum has weakened: MACD histogram is negative (-0.161) and expanding lower, indicating downside momentum is increasing. RSI(6) at ~40.6 is neutral-to-soft, consistent with a pullback phase.
Key levels: Price 33.59 is sitting just above S1 support (33.365). A clean break below S1 increases odds of a move toward S2 (32.447). Upside resistance starts at the pivot (34.851), then R1 (36.336).
Near-term pattern stats: Similar-pattern data implies modest upside over 1 week (+0.89%) and 1 month (+8.87%), but today’s pre-market shock suggests those probabilities may be less reliable until volatility normalizes.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment: Open interest is extremely call-heavy (put/call OI ratio 0.02: 97 calls vs 2 puts), which is typically bullish positioning, but daily option volume is effectively zero (illiquid/low participation).
Volatility read: 30D implied vol ~123% versus historical vol ~31% is a major spike, implying the market is pricing a large move/event risk. That volatility setup is not ideal for initiating a calm long-term entry today, especially alongside the -11.9% pre-market drop.
Technical Summary
Sell
2
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Technicals still show a longer-term uptrend via bullish moving-average stacking (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200).
Revenue grew in 2025/Q3 (+4.73% YoY), indicating the top line is still expanding.
Positioning via options open interest is strongly call-skewed (bullish bias), even though trading activity is thin.
Hedge funds and insiders show neutral activity (no negative flow signal from those groups).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Pre-market change of -11.90% suggests an imminent gap-down or major repricing risk that long-term beginners typically shouldn’t chase immediately.
Momentum is deteriorating (MACD histogram negative and falling), increasing the chance support breaks.
Earnings quality softened in 2025/Q3: net income -8.53% YoY and EPS -2.70% YoY despite revenue growth.
Implied volatility is extremely elevated (123% 30D), consistent with uncertainty/event risk.
No supportive news flow in the past week to counterbalance the pre-market weakness.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to 34,645,000 (+4.73% YoY), but profitability declined: net income fell to 9,699,000 (-8.53% YoY) and EPS to 0.72 (-2.70% YoY). The mixed picture (top-line growth but weaker bottom-line/EPS) suggests margin/credit-cost/expense pressures are likely weighing on results, which can cap near-term upside until earnings re-accelerate.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating or price-target change data was provided, so a current Wall Street consensus view cannot be confirmed from this dataset. (From the available data only: sentiment inputs are mostly neutral—no recent news, neutral hedge/insider activity—while options open interest is call-skewed but low-liquidity.)
Wall Street analysts forecast BSRR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BSRR is 34.17 USD with a low forecast of 33 USD and a high forecast of 36 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BSRR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BSRR is 34.17 USD with a low forecast of 33 USD and a high forecast of 36 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 34.550
Low
33
Averages
34.17
High
36
Current: 34.550
Low
33
Averages
34.17
High
36
Keefe Bruyette
Market Perform
maintain
$32 -> $33
AI Analysis
2025-10-29
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$32 -> $33
AI Analysis
2025-10-29
maintain
Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Sierra Bancorp to $33 from $32 and keeps a Market Perform rating on the shares.
