Should I Buy BOKF? BOKF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy BOK Financial Corp (BOKF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

134.370

1 Day change

-0.18%

52 Week Range

138.090

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient entry: price is below the key pivot (~132.7) with momentum cooling, while insider selling has surged.
Upside looks capped near resistance (136–139) versus downside risk back to 129/127 supports; risk-reward is not attractive for an immediate buy.
Intellectia signals are not supportive today: AI Stock Picker = no signal; SwingMax = no recent signal.
Better stance now: hold/avoid new buys until price reclaims the pivot (~132.7) with improving momentum.

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bullish structure on moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader trend is still up.
Momentum: MACD histogram (-0.251) is below zero (bearish), though contracting (selling pressure easing, but not yet bullish).
RSI(6) at ~64.3 is neutral-to-slightly-hot; not oversold (no “buy-the-dip” signal).
Levels: Pre-market ~130.89 is below Pivot 132.724 (near-term bearish). Support S1 129.074 then S2 126.819. Resistance R1 136.374 then R2 138.629.
Pattern-based odds: similar-pattern model implies modest near-term upside but a negative 1-month bias (-6.02%), aligning with caution on chasing here.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 0.22 is call-heavy (bullish skew), but…
Activity: Option volume is effectively 0 (no real-time conviction signal from options traders).
Volatility: 30D IV ~28.4 vs historical vol ~35.6; IV percentile ~44.8 (mid-range), not signaling an extreme fear/greed setup.
Interpretation: Sentiment skew is bullish, but lack of volume makes it a weak confirmation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Recent quarter commentary/guidance (per analysts) points to potential 2026 tailwinds: NIM expansion, loan growth, and diverse fee income.
- Multiple firms raised price targets into the 132–140 range following strong Q4 commentary (better fees/credit, operating leverage narrative).
- Active share repurchase mentioned by analysts as a support to results.
- No negative news flow in the past week (absence of fresh headline risk).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~355.71% over the last month (not supportive for an immediate buy).
- Valuation concern explicitly cited in the DA Davidson downgrade (Neutral from Buy) despite raising the price target.
- Technicals show price below pivot with MACD still negative—suggesting near-term momentum isn’t aligned with a chase entry.
- Hedge funds noted as neutral (no strong “smart money” accumulation signal).
- Similar-pattern probability shows a negative next-month expectation (-6.02%).

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $475.6M, +4.76% YoY (steady growth).
Net income: $139.37M, +0.54% YoY (profit growth roughly flat).
EPS: $2.22, +1.83% YoY (modest improvement).
Takeaway: fundamentals are stable/improving modestly, but not showing the kind of accelerating growth that demands an immediate buy at this level.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: broad price target raises (most clustered around $132–$135; Raymond James highest at $140), but ratings are mostly Neutral/Equal Weight/Market Perform.
Key change: DA Davidson downgraded to Neutral from Buy (PT raised to $135) primarily on valuation relative to peers.
Wall Street “pros”: strong Q4 execution per notes (loan/deposit growth, NIM expansion, improved fees, conservative guidance, buybacks) and potential 2026 operating leverage.
Wall Street “cons”: valuation now less compelling after outperformance; expectations are higher, leaving less room for upside surprises.

6 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BOKF stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BOKF is 121.83 USD with a low forecast of 115 USD and a high forecast of 129 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

5 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 134.610

Low

115

Averages

121.83

High

129

Current: 134.610

Low

115

Averages

121.83

High

129

DA Davidson

Buy -> Neutral

downgrade

$125 -> $135

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

Reason

DA Davidson

Price Target

$125 -> $135

AI Analysis

2026-01-26

downgrade

Buy -> Neutral

Reason

DA Davidson downgraded BOK Financial to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $135, up from $125, after its Q4 results. The firm's 2026 and 2027 EPS forecast are the highest among analysts as it believes the stage is set for strong revenue growth over the next 2-years, led by continued net interest margin expansion, forecasting above average loan growth, diverse fee income businesses, while expense growth should moderate, the analyst tells investors in a research note. DA Davidson adds that while it is also raising its FY26 EPS view by 79c to $9.87 and FY27 view by 95c to $10.58, its downgrade reflects the stock's valuation relative to its peer bank group.

DA Davidson

Peter Winter

Buy

Neutral

downgrade

$125 -> $135

2026-01-26

Reason

DA Davidson

Peter Winter

Price Target

$125 -> $135

2026-01-26

downgrade

Buy

Neutral

Reason

DA Davidson analyst Peter Winter downgraded BOK Financial to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $135, up from $125.

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BOKF Should I Buy

BOKF Should I Buy

Should You Buy BOK Financial Corp (BOKF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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