Should I Buy BMI? BMI 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Badger Meter Inc (BMI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

144.420

1 Day change

-1.30%

52 Week Range

256.080

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

BMI is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The stock is in a sharp breakdown after earnings, key technical levels have failed, there are no Intellectia buy signals today, and insider selling has surged. While the business is solid and still growing, the current tape and positioning argue for waiting for price stabilization rather than buying today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/price action: BMI is down sharply (regular market -10.53%; pre-market -9.98%), indicating a decisive selloff and a breakdown in near-term structure. Momentum: RSI(6) = 19.384 (deeply oversold), but oversold can persist during strong downtrends. MACD: Histogram -1.57 and expanding negatively, confirming downside momentum is still increasing. Moving averages: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), consistent with a broader downtrend. Key levels: Pivot 161.795 is far above current price (145.23), showing price is well below the recent balance area. S1 = 149.472 has been lost; next support is S2 = 141.858 (near-term downside magnet). Resistance levels to reclaim for stabilization are 149.47 first, then the pivot zone ~161.8. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest/positioning: Put/Call OI ratio at 0.17 is call-heavy (bullish long-term positioning or call overwriting activity), suggesting the market is not heavily hedged with puts. Flow today: Put/Call volume ratio at 0.86 is closer to balanced and not strongly bullish, which fits a post-event volatility repricing rather than confident dip-buying. Volatility: 30D IV ~32.56 vs HV ~32.18 (similar), but IV percentile 74 indicates options are relatively expensive versus the stock’s own recent IV history—typical after an earnings event. Volume vs 30-day average is elevated (today vs avg ~9.74), showing unusually active options interest around the selloff.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Earnings beat on EPS: Q4 GAAP EPS $1.14 beat expectations by $0.02 (supports fundamental quality).
Revenue still grew YoY: Q4 revenue $220.7M, +7.6% YoY (continued expansion).
Supportive long-term industry theme: smart water metering adoption continues to be a structural tailwind.
Bullish sell-side voices remain: Jefferies initiated Buy ($220 PT) and JPMorgan maintained Overweight (PT $235), both implying meaningful upside vs current price if fundamentals re-accelerate.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Post-earnings repricing: Shares sold off hard despite EPS beat, consistent with the market being disappointed on revenue vs expectations (consensus revenue referenced at ~$231.64M vs reported $220.7M).
Downtrend confirmed: Bearish moving-average stack + negative-expanding MACD suggests sellers still control the tape.
Insider activity negative: Insiders are selling, with selling amount up 911.83% over the last month—this is a clear sentiment headwind.
Valuation/risk-reward concerns from sell-side: Barclays initiated Underweight with $157 PT, citing premium valuation and decelerating growth risk from market maturity/utility funding constraints.
No proprietary buy triggers: No AI Stock Picker or SwingMax entry signal today to justify acting immediately into weakness.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth trends: Revenue $235.651M (+13.06% YoY), Net Income $35.077M (+9.49% YoY), EPS $1.19 (+10.19% YoY). Profitability: Gross margin 40.67% (+1.07% YoY), showing margin resilience/improvement. Latest event update: For QDEC 2025 (reported 2026-01-28 pre-market), Q4 GAAP EPS was $1.14 (small beat) while revenue was $220.7M (+7.6% YoY). The market reaction suggests revenue/forward expectations mattered more than the EPS beat this quarter.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mixed-to-positive overall, but with a notable bearish initiation. - 2025-12-08: JPMorgan reiterated Overweight; trimmed PT slightly ($240 -> $235). - 2025-12-12: Jefferies initiated Buy with a $220 PT, framing the pullback as an attractive long-term entry. - 2026-01-07: Barclays initiated Underweight with a $157 PT, highlighting premium valuation and potential growth deceleration. Wall Street pros vs cons: Pros: Multiple bullish firms see BMI as a smart water metering leader capable of compounding organic growth; price targets far above the current price imply long-run upside if growth holds. Cons: A credible bearish view emphasizes valuation risk and a tougher demand/funding setup; the post-earnings drawdown reinforces that expectations were high and the stock is being repriced. Influential trading check (politicians/congress): No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days, and no politician/influential-figure transactions were provided here.

7 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast BMI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BMI is 214.86 USD with a low forecast of 157 USD and a high forecast of 243 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

1 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 146.320

Low

157

Averages

214.86

High

243

Current: 146.320

Low

157

Averages

214.86

High

243

Barclays

Underweight

downgrade

$157 -> $136

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

New

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$157 -> $136

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

New

downgrade

Underweight

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Badger Meter to $136 from $157 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The company reported a Q4 revenue miss and "more muted" first half of 2026 outlook, which was surprising, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Badger's slower near-term growth and margin headwinds will remain an overhang on the shares.

Barclays

William Grippin

Underweight

initiated

$157

2026-01-07

Reason

Barclays

William Grippin

Price Target

$157

2026-01-07

initiated

Underweight

Reason

Barclays analyst William Grippin initiated coverage of Badger Meter with an Underweight rating and $157 price target. The firm says Badger is a "solid company with a difficult setup." The stock's premium valuation among the water technology group creates a poor risk/reward, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays sees decelerating growth for the company due to a maturing market and utility funding constraints.

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BMI Should I Buy

BMI Should I Buy

Should You Buy Badger Meter Inc (BMI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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