If you already own it, this looks more like a “wait for confirmation of a base” situation than an aggressive add.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying rallies are likely to be sold.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0373) and still below zero (bearish), though “contracting” suggests downside momentum may be slowing.
RSI: RSI(6) at ~23 is effectively oversold (even if labeled neutral in the feed), which can allow short-lived rebounds—but oversold can stay oversold in strong downtrends.
Levels: Pre-market 1.12 is just above S1 (1.089). A break below S1 increases risk of a move toward S2 (0.986). Upside resistance starts near Pivot (1.257) then R1 (1.425).
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern projection shows modest positive drift (next month +5.24% with 60% probability), but near-term edge is small (+~1% day/week).
Activity: Today’s options volume is elevated vs its 30D average (~55.64), suggesting heightened interest.
Volatility: IV(30D) ~236% vs historical vol ~73% (very rich). Options are pricing very large moves; this often reflects uncertainty and makes “buying options” expensive.
IV percentile ~80.8 suggests IV is high relative to its recent range (sentiment/uncertainty elevated).
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
and RSI is oversold, which can trigger a reflex bounce.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Primary trend remains bearish (MA stack + negative MACD), so probability favors continuation/lower lows unless price reclaims key resistances (Pivot ~1.257).
Funding/dilution overhang: JPMorgan explicitly flagged concern about the company’s ability to fund studies without meaningful dilution/partnership.
Very high implied volatility suggests the market expects instability; sharp downside can occur even after oversold readings.
No clear near-term event-driven catalyst in the provided news feed to justify a fast rerating.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 0 (no improvement; effectively pre-revenue).
Profitability: Net loss widened to about -$16.4M (down -49.96% YoY), indicating higher burn.
EPS: -0.27 (down -70.33% YoY), reinforcing deterioration in per-share performance (consistent with dilution/burn concerns).
Overall: Financial trajectory is negative (greater losses, worse EPS) and increases reliance on external financing.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend: Mixed-to-negative shift.
Citi (2025-11-10): Kept Buy but cut price target to $6 from $7, citing higher spending and dilution from a public offering.
JPMorgan (2025-11-15): Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral (no PT), citing concerns about funding future studies and potential significant long-term dilution without a partnership.
Wall Street pros/cons view: Bulls focus on “interesting” clinical data and upside optionality; bears focus on cash runway/financing risk and dilution as the dominant overhang at this stage.
Wall Street analysts forecast BMEA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BMEA is 7.75 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BMEA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BMEA is 7.75 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 1.090
Low
4
Averages
7.75
High
12
Current: 1.090
Low
4
Averages
7.75
High
12
JPMorgan
Neutral -> Underweight
downgrade
AI Analysis
2025-11-15
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-11-15
downgrade
Neutral -> Underweight
Reason
JPMorgan downgraded Biomea Fusion to Underweight from Neutral without a price target. The firm views the recent phase 2 COVALENT II icovamenib data in type 2 diabetes as "interesting" but has concerns around the company's ability to fund the ongoing and planned studies. The funding may come with significant dilution over the long-term without a partnership, which is difficult to predict, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Citi
Buy
downgrade
$7 -> $6
2025-11-10
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$7 -> $6
2025-11-10
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Citi lowered the firm's price target on Biomea Fusion to $6 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the Q3 report. The firm cites the company's higher spending and dilution from the recent public offering for the target drop.
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