Should You Buy Banco BBVA Argentina SA (BBAR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
20.470
1 Day change
1.04%
52 Week Range
23.580
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. BBAR is in a strong short-term uptrend but is technically overbought (RSI ~83) and has sharply deteriorating latest-quarter fundamentals (2025/Q3 net income and EPS down ~75% YoY). With no proprietary buy signals today and no near-term news catalysts, the risk/reward for buying at current levels (~20.80, above R1) is unfavorable.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is above zero and expanding (0.172), indicating momentum continuation. However, RSI_6 at ~83.3 signals an overbought condition, increasing the odds of a pullback/consolidation. Price is trading above R1 (20.392) and below R2 (21.354); near-term resistance is ~21.35, while key support is the pivot ~18.83 (then S1 ~17.27). Given the overbought reading, upside may be limited near R2 while downside to the pivot is plausible if momentum cools.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is mixed. Open interest put/call ratio at 0.63 suggests more call open interest than puts (constructive/bullish positioning). But the volume put/call ratio at 1.5 indicates heavier put trading today versus calls (more defensive/hedging tone short-term). Implied volatility is very elevated (30D IV ~96% with IV percentile ~90.4), implying the market is pricing large moves; this often coincides with higher uncertainty and can accompany sharp reversals after extended rallies.
- Options open interest skew (P/C OI 0.63) leans bullish positioning.
- Analyst upgrade catalyst recently occurred (Citi upgraded to Buy), reflecting a more constructive view on Argentina’s banking outlook after political/election-related risk reduction.
- Pattern-based projection data indicates positive probabilities over 1 week/month (model suggests potential upside over the next week/month).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Overbought technical condition (RSI ~83) increases near-term pullback risk at current price.
- No recent news catalysts in the past week to support immediate continuation.
- Options flow today is more defensive (put-heavy volume with volume P/C 1.5) and IV is extremely high, suggesting elevated uncertainty.
- Ownership/trading sentiment signals are not supportive of an aggressive entry: hedge funds neutral (no significant last-quarter trend), insiders neutral (no significant last-month trend).
- No politician/influential-figure trading signal: no recent congress trading data available (nothing to corroborate confidence from that channel).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Results weakened materially YoY: revenue fell to 586,250,087.37 (-7.09% YoY), net income dropped to 26,378,422.76 (-75.11% YoY), and EPS fell to 0.04 (-76.47% YoY). This points to a meaningful profitability compression versus last year, which is a fundamental headwind for a long-term beginner entry at an overbought technical level.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is mixed and volatile: Citi upgraded to Buy (2025-11-03) with a much higher local-currency target, reflecting optimism on Argentina’s banking cycle and reduced political risk; Goldman initiated at Sell (2025-11-10) with a $15 target, citing weaker relative profitability positioning and lower Tier 1 ratio versus peers; UBS initiated Neutral (2025-11-19) with an $18 target, taking a conservative stance on the sector and preferring a peer (Banco Macro).
Wall Street pros: potential Argentina banking inflection/credit cycle improvement and sector tailwinds if macro stabilizes.
Wall Street cons: profitability and capital-position concerns relative to peers and less conviction from initiations (Sell/Neutral outweigh the single Buy in tone).
Wall Street analysts forecast BBAR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BBAR is 16 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BBAR stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BBAR is 16 USD with a low forecast of 15 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 20.260
Low
15
Averages
16
High
18
Current: 20.260
Low
15
Averages
16
High
18
UBS
Neutral
initiated
$18
AI Analysis
2025-11-19
Reason
UBS
Price Target
$18
AI Analysis
2025-11-19
initiated
Neutral
Reason
UBS initiated coverage of Banco BBVA Argentina with a Neutral rating and $18 price target. The firm believes the Argentine banking sector is at an "inflection point" after years of inflation, tight capital controls, and negative real interest rates. UBS is taking a "somewhat conservative approach" on the group, putting its only Buy rating on Banco Macro due to its better capital position, "resilient" franchise and potentially lower credit quality risk.
Goldman Sachs
Sell
initiated
$15
2025-11-10
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$15
2025-11-10
initiated
Sell
Reason
Goldman Sachs initiated coverage of Banco BBVA Argentina with a Sell rating and $15 price target. The firm believes the bank is in a weaker position to improve its profitability relative to peers. BBVA has the lowest Tier 1 ratio at 18% and it already has more exposure to loans, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Goldman is taking a more balanced view on the group following the share rallies on lower inflation and better economic growth.
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