Should You Buy Ball Corp (BALL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
56.260
1 Day change
-1.32%
52 Week Range
60.280
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY for a beginner long-term investor at current levels (~$56.97). The primary setup is a confirmed bullish trend (stacked moving averages) plus improving fundamentals and a broadly supportive Wall Street stance into the 2026 demand/catalyst window. The stock is somewhat near-term extended (RSI ~70 and near resistance), but for an impatient long-term buyer, the trend and 2026 narrative outweigh the risk of a small pullback.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 confirms an established uptrend. MACD histogram is positive (0.0295) but contracting, implying upside momentum is slowing rather than reversing. RSI_6 at ~70.2 indicates the stock is getting stretched/near overbought, so near-term chop or a mild pullback is plausible.
Key levels: Pivot 56.225 is the nearest support area; S1 55.16 is the next downside level if profit-taking appears. Resistance is close at R1 57.291, then R2 57.95—meaning upside may be incremental until a breakout above ~57.3.
Pattern-based short-horizon odds provided are slightly negative over 1 day/week but positive over 1 month (net supportive for long-term accumulation).
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
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Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read: Open interest put/call at 1.23 suggests heavier put positioning outstanding (more hedging/caution embedded). However, today’s option volume put/call at 0.23 shows call volume dominated on the day (more bullish near-term trading flow). Implied volatility (30D ~29.82) is above historical volatility (~25.98) with IV percentile ~67.6, indicating options are priced for elevated movement versus typical—often consistent with positioning ahead of catalysts (e.g., earnings) and/or recent trend strength.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
1) Strong operating/earnings momentum in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) with large EPS and net income growth. 2) Multiple bullish 2026 thematic drivers cited by analysts: Europe growth, improved customer mix in South America, Benepack ramp, and potential World Cup-related demand tailwinds. 3) Broad early-2026 analyst support (multiple upgrades/raised targets) can keep incremental buyers engaged. 4) Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-03 pre-market) can be an event catalyst if results/guide confirm 2026 volume and margin trajectory.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Near-term technical stretch: RSI ~70 and price sitting just below nearby resistance (~57.29) increases odds of a short-term pause/pullback. 2) Gross margin declined YoY in 2025/Q3 (15.39%, down ~6.44% YoY), which is the key fundamental watch item despite strong EPS. 3) Not all Wall Street is aligned: Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal Weight with a lowered target, highlighting a less favorable relative setup versus peers and more limited earnings-revision upside. 4) Options open-interest skew (put/call > 1) indicates meaningful hedging/caution still exists under the surface.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $3.379B (+9.64% YoY). Net income rose to $321M (+62.94% YoY). EPS increased to $1.18 (+81.54% YoY). The main blemish is profitability mix: gross margin fell to 15.39% (-6.44% YoY). Overall, growth and earnings leverage are strong, but sustaining/improving margin is the key driver for longer-term multiple expansion.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: mostly positive into early January with several upgrades/target raises, partially offset by one notable downgrade. Citi upgraded to Buy and lifted target to $67 (from $54) citing 2026 upside drivers (Europe growth, World Cup tailwinds, Benepack, South America mix). Wells Fargo upgraded to Overweight with a $60 target (from $48), focusing on leadership refresh and 1H demand tailwinds. Truist kept Buy and raised target to $69. BofA upgraded to Buy (top pick framing) and lifted target to $63. Counterpoint: Morgan Stanley downgraded to Equal Weight and cut target to $63, preferring peers where they see better earnings revision potential.
Wall Street pros view: improving operating performance and multiple 2026 volume/catalyst supports. Cons view: relative upside may be more limited versus peers and margin durability remains a key question.
Influential/congress activity: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported Neutral with no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast BALL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BALL is 61.89 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 69 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast BALL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for BALL is 61.89 USD with a low forecast of 50 USD and a high forecast of 69 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 57.010
Low
50
Averages
61.89
High
69
Current: 57.010
Low
50
Averages
61.89
High
69
Morgan Stanley
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$68 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$68 -> $63
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley downgraded Ball Corp. (BALL) to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $63, down from $68. The firm forecasts global beverage can demand growth of 2.3% in 2026 and prefers to align its ratings where it sees the potential for higher earnings revisions and greater return on investment, the analyst tells investors. Given this backdrop, it reiterates an Overweight rating and $129 price target on Crown (CCK) and downgrades Ball.
Truist
Michael Roxland
Buy
maintain
$65 -> $69
2026-01-06
Reason
Truist
Michael Roxland
Price Target
$65 -> $69
2026-01-06
maintain
Buy
Reason
Truist analyst Michael Roxland raised the firm's price target on Ball Corp. to $69 from $65 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Early 2026 is expected to see modestly challenged packaging volumes due to limited promotions, though some CPGs are successfully driving volume while retaining price gains, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Beverage cans should continue growing in North America and Europe, and containerboard producers are likely to implement price increases successfully thanks to disciplined supply management, the firm says.
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