Based on the provided data and recent analyst updates, here's a comprehensive analysis of BALL's valuation:
Technical Analysis
The stock is currently trading at $50.89, showing bearish momentum with RSI(14) at 44.54 and MACD diverging negatively. The price is below both 200-day SMA ($61.45) and 60-day SMA ($55.29), indicating a strong downtrend.
Valuation Metrics
The stock appears overvalued based on several metrics:
- Forward P/E of 37.68x is significantly higher than 2022's 28.76x
- EV/EBITDA of 14.04x exceeds industry averages
- P/S ratio increased from 1.22x to 1.51x year-over-year
- P/B ratio rose from 4.64x to 4.82x
Recent Financial Performance
Q4 2024 results showed concerning trends:
- Net loss of $32 million vs. $154 million profit year-over-year
- EPS declined to -$0.11 from $0.49
- Revenue decreased to $2.88B from $2.90B
- Though adjusted EPS of $0.84 beat analyst estimates of $0.81
Analyst Sentiment
Recent price target revisions all trend lower:
- UBS: Maintains Neutral, cuts target to $55
- RBC Capital: Maintains Outperform, reduces target to $66
- Baird: Maintains Outperform, lowers target to $63
Conclusion
BALL appears overvalued at current levels considering:
- Deteriorating fundamentals with declining revenue and earnings
- Trading multiples expansion despite weaker performance
- Negative technical indicators
- Analysts reducing price targets
The stock would be more attractive at levels closer to its 20-day Bollinger Band lower bound of $44.34.