Should I Buy AVTX? AVTX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

15.250

1 Day change

1.87%

52 Week Range

20.720

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Not a good buy right now for a Beginner long-term investor with $50k–$100k who is impatient. AVTX is a pre-revenue, high-volatility biotech with sharply worsening YoY losses (2025/Q3) and no near-term news catalyst; the main upside catalyst highlighted by Wall Street (Phase II readout) is projected for mid-2026. With no Intellectia buy signals today and only a neutral technical setup, the risk/reward is not attractive for buying immediately.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Setup: Neutral-to-slightly soft. RSI(6)=50.68 is neutral (no momentum edge). MACD histogram is negative (-0.0345) but contracting, which suggests bearish momentum is fading rather than a strong uptrend starting. Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation rather than a breakout. Key levels (pre-market ~16.06): Pivot 15.888 is the near-term line in the sand—price is slightly above it, but not decisively. Immediate resistance is R1 16.955 (then R2 17.613). Support sits at S1 14.822 (then S2 14.163). This looks like a range trade zone, not a strong long-term entry signal. Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern stats show ~50% chance of -1.07% next day and -1.51% next week, but +9.34% next month—mixed, with near-term drift risk.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment from options: Skews bullish. Put/Call Open Interest ratio 0.43 indicates more call positioning than puts, and Volume Put/Call ratio 0.08 shows today’s flow was overwhelmingly calls (though total volume is tiny: 14 contracts, so interpret cautiously). Volatility: Implied vol (30D) ~123.75% vs historical ~88.03% = options are priced rich. However IV percentile (7.38) / IV rank (5.62) are low versus its own history, implying current IV is relatively low compared with the past year’s extremes (still high in absolute terms). Overall: mildly bullish positioning, but thin liquidity/volume limits signal strength.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

1) Wall Street catalyst: Mizuho expects AVTX-009 to be well positioned for a positive Phase II readout in hidradenitis suppurativa in mid-2026; positive Phase II could re-rate the stock.
2) Flow/positioning: Hedge funds are reported as buying, with buying amount up 829.12% over the last quarter (supportive institutional sentiment).
3) Options skew: Call-heavy open interest/flow suggests market participants are leaning bullish.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

1) Fundamentals: Pre-revenue profile (2025/Q3 revenue fell to 0) and sharply worse net loss YoY indicate the story remains entirely pipeline-driven.
2) No near-term news momentum: News summary shows no recent week catalysts; upside appears dependent on future clinical milestones.
3) Event risk: Next scheduled earnings is QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-05 (pre-market). For pre-revenue biotechs, earnings updates often move the stock via cash runway/burn commentary rather than operating improvement.
4) No Intellectia buy trigger today: AI Stock Picker shows no signal; SwingMax shows no recent signal—no systematic timing edge for an immediate entry.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. - Revenue: 0 (down -100.00% YoY), confirming no operating revenue base. - Net income: -30.625M (down -660.69% YoY), material deterioration. - EPS: -2.19 (down -22.61% YoY), still deeply negative. - Gross margin: 0 (down -100.00% YoY). Overall: Worsening losses and no revenue make this a high-risk, catalyst-dependent long-term hold at best, not a clean long-term buy for a beginner portfolio.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Coverage initiation (not an upgrade/downgrade cycle). On 2025-12-17, Mizuho initiated AVTX at Outperform with a $39 price target. Wall Street pro view (bull case): AVTX-009 is positioned for a potentially positive Phase II readout in HS by mid-2026; Mizuho models meaningful long-term sales potential (risk-adjusted 2035 worldwide sales estimate). Wall Street con view (bear case): The investment case is binary and timing-dependent (clinical readouts), with current financials showing no revenue and worsening losses; valuation support is hard to anchor without pipeline success. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are described as neutral with no significant recent trend.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AVTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVTX is 38 USD with a low forecast of 25 USD and a high forecast of 48 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

5 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 14.970

Low

Averages

High

Current: 14.970

Low

Averages

High

Mizuho

Joseph Catanzaro

Outperform

initiated

$39

AI Analysis

2025-12-17

Reason

Mizuho

Joseph Catanzaro

Price Target

$39

AI Analysis

2025-12-17

initiated

Outperform

Reason

Mizuho analyst Joseph Catanzaro initiated coverage of Avalo Therapeutics with an Outperform rating and $39 price target. The firm believes the company's lead program AVTX-009 is well positioned for a positive Phase II readout in hidradenitis suppurativa in mid-2026. It projects $1B in risk-adjusted 2035 worldwide sales for AVTX-009 and expects positive Phase II data to drive share outperformance.

Oppenheimer

Outperform

maintain

$35

2025-09-15

Reason

Oppenheimer

Price Target

$35

2025-09-15

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer recommends investors to be buyers of Avalo Therapeutics in anticipation of the presentation of lutikizumab's open-label Phase 2 data in about 40 treatment-naive hidradenitis suppurativa patients late this week. The firm, which forecasts \"strong results for luti\" at the EADV conference given its substantial benefit previously shown in a difficult-to-treat, TNF-refractory disease population, would expect '009 - with its multiple advantages over luti - to show \"at least as good as, and potentially better, efficacy\" when LOTUS reads out in mid-2026, says the analyst. The firm has an Outperform rating and $35 price target on Avalo shares.

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AVTX Should I Buy

AVTX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Avalo Therapeutics Inc (AVTX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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