Should You Buy AeroVironment Inc (AVAV) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
293.220
1 Day change
-4.47%
52 Week Range
417.860
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
AVAV is NOT a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. Despite strong long-term defense-tech tailwinds and supportive Wall Street ratings, the stock is still in a weakening technical trend (bearish MACD, price below key pivot), has elevated uncertainty (very high options IV), and faces a material event overhang from the SCAR stop-work order. If you already own it, holding makes sense; if you don’t, this setup is better treated as a “wait for stabilization” rather than buying today.
Technical Analysis
Trend/levels: Price is pre-market ~316.62, sitting just above key support S1 ~307 and well below the pivot ~348.9 (a level that often separates bearish vs bullish control). Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-6.103) and expanding to the downside, indicating bearish momentum is still building. RSI(6) ~38.4 is weak (near oversold-ish but not signaling a confirmed reversal). Moving averages are converging, which often precedes a bigger move, but current momentum favors downside/sideways until reclaiming the pivot. Near-term read: this looks like a fragile bounce attempt near support rather than a confirmed uptrend.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: **No signal on given stock today.**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open interest put-call ratio at 0.74 suggests more call positioning than puts (mildly bullish positioning). However, the option *volume* put-call ratio at 1.57 indicates heavier put trading activity today (more bearish/hedging in the very near term). Volatility: IV percentile ~99.6 and IV rank ~98.8 are extremely high, signaling the market is pricing unusually large moves and elevated uncertainty. Takeaway: options imply heightened event-risk/uncertainty; sentiment is mixed—bullish longer-dated positioning, but near-term caution/hedging.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Contract win: U.S. Air Force awarded a $75M task order/contract tied to modernization via biotech/materials research—near-term positive headline and validates ongoing defense demand.
Macro/sector tailwinds: Defense/space tech spending backdrop viewed positively through 2026 by KeyBanc, supporting multi-year demand narrative.
Street support: Multiple firms maintain Buy/Overweight/Outperform-type stances, implying institutional support on dips.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
SCAR stop-work order: recent news indicates a stop-work order impacting an estimated ~$175M FY2026 revenue—this is a direct, event-driven overhang and can keep the stock volatile.
Insider selling: insiders are selling, with selling amount reportedly up ~1384% over the last month—often a bearish near-term signal for sentiment.
Profitability/margins pressure: latest quarter shows a sharp gross margin drop and a net loss, which can pressure valuation multiples even if revenue grows.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2026/Q2. Revenue surged to ~$472.5M (+150.72% YoY), showing strong top-line expansion. However, profitability deteriorated: net income fell to about -$17.1M (down -326.74% YoY), EPS to -$0.34 (down -225.93% YoY), and gross margin dropped to ~22.03% (down -43.61% YoY). Bottom line: growth is strong, but margins/earnings quality weakened materially in the latest quarter.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Overall tone remains bullish, but price targets were cut after/around the Q2 update in December (e.g., Goldman to $429 from $486; Jefferies to $390 from $415; Cantor to $315 from $335; Canaccord to $400 from $430; RBC to $400 from $440). More recently, KeyBanc raised its target to $330 from $285 (Overweight), reflecting renewed confidence in the macro setup for defense/space tech. Wall Street pros: strong multi-year defense-tech tailwinds, backlog/pipeline conversion potential, and strategic positioning. Wall Street cons: near-term cash flow/EBITDA sensitivity, guidance/estimate resets risk, and program-specific disruption risk (e.g., stop-work orders).
Wall Street analysts forecast AVAV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVAV is 387 USD with a low forecast of 285 USD and a high forecast of 450 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AVAV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AVAV is 387 USD with a low forecast of 285 USD and a high forecast of 450 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
13 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 306.940
Low
285
Averages
387
High
450
Current: 306.940
Low
285
Averages
387
High
450
KeyBanc
Overweight
maintain
$285 -> $330
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
$285 -> $330
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Overweight
Reason
KeyBanc raised the firm's price target on AeroVironment to $330 from $285 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Post the swath of recent events and headlines directly impacting the space and defense technology industries, the firm is updating view on the sector. KeyBanc sees an ideal macro environment persisting through 2026, driving significant growth opportunities and potential re-ratings of space and defense tech equities.
William Blair
Louis DiPalma
Outperform
initiated
2026-01-07
Reason
William Blair
Louis DiPalma
Price Target
2026-01-07
initiated
Outperform
Reason
William Blair analyst Louis DiPalma initiated coverage of Vertical Aerospace with an Outperform rating without a price target. The company is positioned to "capture significant share in the nascent but potentially large" urban air mobility market, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Vertical has "metaphorically flown under the radar" relative to peers. The company's Valo electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft supports ample luggage capacity that is critical for airport passenger transportation, contends Blair. In bullish scenarios, there could be as many as 30,000 eVTOL aircraft in service globally by 2045, it adds.
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