Should You Buy Aurora Innovation Inc (AUR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
4.510
1 Day change
0.22%
52 Week Range
10.770
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor. The stock is trading below the key pivot (4.661) with bearish momentum (MACD histogram negative and worsening) and no near-term news catalysts. While options positioning and hedge-fund flow lean bullish, the company’s latest quarter shows continued heavy losses and Wall Street has been cutting targets while staying Neutral/Hold. I would rate AUR a HOLD/WAIT rather than a buy at the current ~4.39 pre-market level.
Technical Analysis
Price/Trend: Pre-market ~4.39 (+0.69%), sitting just above first support S1 (4.371) and below the pivot (4.661), which keeps the near-term trend biased bearish-to-neutral.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.0131 (below zero and negatively expanding) indicates weakening momentum.
RSI: RSI(6) = 38.49, leaning toward weak/oversold territory but not a clear reversal signal.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation, but without a confirmed turn upward.
Levels: Support = 4.371 then 4.192. Resistance = 4.661 (pivot) then 4.952.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern model suggests ~70% chance of a small +1.69% next-day move, but slightly negative over the next week (-0.31%) and more positive over the next month (+7.62%).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment/Positioning: Open-interest put/call of 0.21 is strongly call-heavy (bullish positioning). Volume put/call of 0.7 is also call-leaning, though less extreme.
Activity: Today’s options volume is far above its 30-day average (today vs avg ~21.49x), signaling unusual attention.
Volatility: 30D IV ~73.13 vs HV ~58.19 implies options are pricing elevated forward uncertainty. IV rank/percentile ~27 suggests IV is not extremely high relative to its own history, despite being high in absolute terms.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Hedge fund flow: Hedge funds are buying; reported buying amount up ~167.46% over the last quarter.
Potential catalyst date: Next earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-11 after hours could reset sentiment if operational milestones/revenue ramp narrative improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical weakness: Below pivot (4.661) with MACD worsening—trend is not confirming a durable bottom.
Fundamentals still loss-heavy: Continued large net losses and EPS deterioration reduce long-term “set and forget” suitability for beginners.
Wall Street caution: Recent price target cuts and Neutral/Hold stances reinforce a more skeptical near/mid-term view.
No supportive news flow: No news in the past week to provide a clear, event-driven upside trigger right now.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.0M (flat YoY, +0.00%), indicating minimal top-line traction at this stage.
Net income: -$201.0M (worsened YoY by -3.37%), losses remain very large.
EPS: -$0.11 (down -15.38% YoY), showing profitability is moving further away near-term.
Gross margin: reported as -500 (data indicates still negative/immaterial; not showing meaningful margin progress yet).
Overall: Growth is not yet showing up in revenue, while losses remain substantial—this profile is more speculative than “beginner-friendly long-term core holding.”
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Targets have been cut and ratings remain cautious.
- 2025-11-26 Goldman Sachs: Neutral; PT cut to $4 from $6.
- 2025-10-30 TD Cowen: Hold; PT cut to $5.50 from $7.40; cited timing risk and a more measured 2026–27 revenue ramp.
Wall Street pros: Acknowledge underlying progress and long-term autonomy opportunity.
Wall Street cons: Execution/timing risk on commercialization and validation, plus model resets (slower ramp) reflected in repeated price target reductions.
Influential trading (politicians/insiders/congress): No recent congress trading data available; insiders neutral (no significant trend reported).
Wall Street analysts forecast AUR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AUR is 10.36 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AUR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AUR is 10.36 USD with a low forecast of 4 USD and a high forecast of 15 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 4.500
Low
4
Averages
10.36
High
15
Current: 4.500
Low
4
Averages
10.36
High
15
Goldman Sachs
Neutral
downgrade
$6 -> $4
AI Analysis
2025-11-26
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
$6 -> $4
AI Analysis
2025-11-26
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Aurora Innovation to $4 from $6 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
TD Cowen
Itay Michaeli
Hold
downgrade
2025-10-30
Reason
TD Cowen
Itay Michaeli
Price Target
2025-10-30
downgrade
Hold
Reason
TD Cowen analyst Itay Michaeli lowered the firm's price target on Aurora Innovation to $5.50 from $7.40 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The firm views Q3 as mixed but solidly intact. They are encouraged by the company's underlying progress but are adjusting its model to reflect a more measured 2026-27 revenue ramp to reflect timing risks in validating/launching the 2nd gen HW fleet.
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