Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. Financial performance shows a decline in deposits and increased expenses, but positive loan growth and a stable business outlook. The Q&A highlights uncertainties in guidance and challenges in expansion, with some unclear responses. Despite strong loan growth and strategic expansion, the lack of clarity and potential risks such as fraud and market conditions balance out the positives, leading to a neutral sentiment. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, with stock price movement expected between -2% to 2%.
Key Financial Performance
Quarterly loan growth 6.3% annualized, ending the year at $27.8 billion. Growth attributed to higher pipelines and seasonally strong lending trends despite economic uncertainty and merger-related activities.
Net interest margin (NIM) Increased by 13 basis points to 3.96%. Improvement driven by reduced deposit costs and steady loan yields despite Fed rate cuts.
Fee income Strong performance, primarily driven by loan-related interest rate swap fees and fiduciary and asset management fees. 27% of swap income came from former Sandy Spring customers.
Net charge-off ratio Fourth quarter annualized net charge-off ratio at 1 basis point, full year at 17 basis points. Improvement due to strong credit quality and reduced charge-offs.
Nonperforming assets Declined by 7 basis points to 0.42% of loans held for investment. Improvement attributed to strong credit underwriting and client selectivity.
Reported net income (Q4 2025) $109 million, earnings per share at $0.77. Reflects merger-related costs and adjusted operating performance.
Adjusted operating earnings (Q4 2025) $138.4 million or $0.97 per share. Adjusted operating return on tangible common equity at 22.1%, return on assets at 1.5%, and efficiency ratio at 47.8%.
Allowance for credit losses $321.3 million, increased by $1.3 million from Q3 due to loan growth. Ratio to total loans decreased by 1 basis point to 116 basis points.
Noninterest income Increased by $5.2 million to $57 million in Q4, driven by higher loan-related interest rate swap fees and fiduciary fees.
Noninterest expense Reported at $243.2 million in Q4, increased due to merger-related costs. Adjusted operating noninterest expense at $186.9 million, reflecting higher marketing and other expenses.
Deposits Total deposits at $30.5 billion, decreased by $193.7 million or 2.5% annualized from Q3. Decline due to seasonal patterns and large commercial deposit activity.
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Operating Highlights
Sandy Spring Acquisition: Successful integration of Sandy Spring's acquisition, with core systems conversion completed in October 2025. The acquisition has contributed to operational and financial performance, including fee income growth and strategic market expansion.
Market Presence: Reinforced status as the premier regional bank in the lower Mid-Atlantic, with expanded markets gained through the Sandy Spring acquisition and organic growth opportunities in Virginia and North Carolina.
Unemployment Rates: Virginia's unemployment rate remained steady at 3.5%, Maryland's increased to 4.2%, and North Carolina's edged up to 3.8%, all below the national average. These markets are considered attractive and resilient.
Loan Growth: Quarterly loan growth of 6.3% annualized, ending 2025 at $27.8 billion. Expected 2026 year-end loan balances to range between $29 billion and $30 billion.
Deposit Base: Deposits decreased by $193.7 million in Q4 2025 due to seasonal fluctuations, ending at $30.5 billion. Some balances have returned in early Q1 2026.
Net Interest Margin: Increased by 13 basis points to 3.96% in Q4 2025, driven by reduced deposit costs and steady loan yields despite Fed rate cuts.
Credit Quality: Net charge-off ratio for Q4 2025 was 1 basis point, with full-year ratio at 17 basis points. Nonperforming assets declined to 0.42% of loans held for investment.
Strategic Focus: Shifted focus to demonstrating earnings power and capital generation ability post-Sandy Spring acquisition. No additional acquisitions planned during this phase of the strategic plan.
Financial Outlook: Maintaining 2026 financial outlook with projections for loan and deposit growth, stable credit loss reserves, and top-tier financial performance.
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Risk or Challenges
Economic Uncertainty: The company acknowledges ongoing economic uncertainty, which poses challenges in forecasting loan growth and impacts client confidence and lending trends.
Merger-Related Costs: The Sandy Spring acquisition has resulted in significant merger-related expenses, which continue to affect financial results. Although these costs are expected to decline, they remain a short-term challenge.
Unemployment Rates: Rising unemployment rates in Maryland and North Carolina, though below the national average, are anticipated to increase further, potentially impacting the company's markets and CECL modeling.
Regulatory and Macroeconomic Headwinds: The company faced challenges from federal government restructuring and unpredictable tariff policies, which could continue to impact operations.
Deposit Fluctuations: The deposit base experienced typical year-end fluctuations, with some balances returning in Q1. This variability could impact liquidity management.
Interest Rate Environment: Fed rate cuts have affected variable rate loan yields, though the company has managed to offset this with accretion income and loan repricing. However, further rate changes could pose risks.
Credit Quality Risks: While credit quality remains strong, the company acknowledges potential risks in asset quality due to economic conditions and market uncertainties.
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Guidance & Outlook
Loan Growth: Loan balances are expected to end 2026 between $29 billion and $30 billion, reflecting consistent growth despite economic uncertainties.
Deposit Balances: Year-end deposit balances are projected to range between $31.5 billion and $32.5 billion.
Credit Quality: Allowance for credit losses to loan balances is projected to remain at current levels of 115 to 120 basis points, with a net charge-off ratio expected to fall between 10 and 15 basis points in 2026.
Net Interest Income: Full year tax equivalent net interest income is projected to be between $1.350 billion and $1.375 billion, inclusive of accretion income.
Net Interest Margin: The full year tax equivalent net interest margin is expected to range between 3.90% and 4%, assuming two 25 basis point Fed rate cuts in April and September 2026.
Noninterest Income: Projected to be between $220 million and $230 million for the full year 2026.
Operating Expenses: Adjusted operating noninterest expense is expected to range between $750 million and $760 million, including expenses for North Carolina investments and other strategic initiatives.
Tangible Book Value Growth: Annual growth in tangible book value per share is projected to be between 12% and 15%.
Financial Returns: The company aims to achieve financial returns placing it in the top quartile of its proxy peer group, delivering top-tier financial performance.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Dividend Increase: During the fourth quarter, the company paid a common stock dividend of $0.37 per share, which was an increase of 8.8% from the third quarter's and previous year's fourth quarter dividend amount.
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Key Q&A
Q:Can you clarify your 2026 guidance, specifically the range for net interest income and factors that could influence being at the higher or lower end?
A:The guidance for net interest income is between $1.35 billion and $1.375 billion. Factors influencing the higher end include elevated accretion income, lower deposit costs as the Fed reduces rates, and higher loan growth with a steep curve. Conversely, conservative projections on deposit costs and lower loan growth could keep it at the lower end.
Q:Do you still forecast a mid-50s beta for interest-bearing deposits, and what drove the deposit remix into more interest-bearing checking?
A:The forecast for interest-bearing deposits remains at mid-50s (50%-55%) beta, consistent with prior cycles. The deposit remix into more interest-bearing checking was primarily driven by reclassifications post the Sandy Spring conversion, which is not expected to shift significantly going forward.
Q:Can you provide details on the loan pipeline increase and its impact on near-term loan growth?
A:The loan pipeline modestly increased by the end of the quarter, which is unusual for Q4. This indicates strong activity and confidence in mid-single-digit loan growth guidance. The growth is broad-based, including contributions from the former Sandy Spring franchise.
Q:What is your view on the business climate in Virginia with the change in the governor's office?
A:The outlook for Virginia remains positive, with a tradition of business-oriented moderates in statewide offices. Confidence is high that the new governor will continue this tradition.
Q:What are the current loan pricing levels and deposit costs at quarter-end?
A:Loan pricing is around 6%-6.20% for both variable and fixed-rate loans. Deposit costs at the end of December were below 2%, approximately 1.96%.
Q:Do you expect core margin expansion throughout the year, and what factors influence this?
A:Core margin is expected to expand modestly, driven by repricing of the acquired loan book and higher fixed-rate loan yields. However, if the Fed cuts rates more than expected, there could be stable or slightly contracting margins. Deposit cost reductions will help offset variable rate loan impacts.
Q:What is the updated full-year projection for purchase accounting accretion?
A:The full-year projection for purchase accounting accretion in 2026 is between $150 million and $160 million, though this can fluctuate.
Q:What progress has been made in the North Carolina expansion, and what challenges are being faced?
A:Progress includes plans for 10 branches in Raleigh and Wilmington within 1.5-2 years and hiring staff to support wholesale and consumer banking. Challenges include finding good sites and hiring the right talent, but progress is on track.
Q:Where are you seeing the most traction for organic loan growth, and what are the near-term drivers?
A:Traction is seen across the Sandy Spring footprint, North Carolina, and Specialty Banking businesses. Sandy Spring has turned the corner with positive results, North Carolina is steadily growing, and specialty businesses contributed significantly to Q4 growth. Virginia also shows strength across the state.
Q:What is the outlook for deposit growth in 2026?
A:Deposit growth is guided at 3%-4% for the year, with opportunities in treasury management in the former Sandy Spring footprint and both commercial and consumer sides.
Q:What is the expected run rate for expenses in Q1 2026, and how does it compare to Q4?
A:Expenses in Q1 2026 are expected to be flat compared to Q4, around $204-$205 million adjusted. Seasonal factors like FICA resets and merit increases will offset some cost savings from the Sandy Spring integration.
Q:What are the plans for share repurchases, and what capital levels are required?
A:Share repurchases are expected in the second half of 2026, contingent on exceeding a CET1 capital level of 10.5%. The company is on track for this, with tangible capital growth of approximately 4% in one quarter.
Q:What caused the non-credit-related customer losses in other expenses, and are they expected to recur?
A:The losses were primarily due to fraud, which is episodic and industry-wide. While elevated in Q4, they are not expected to recur at the same level.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided directly addressing the specific seasonal impact of Q4 loan growth and whether the cadence could be maintained throughout the year. Additionally, responses about the North Carolina expansion challenges and fraud-related expenses lacked detailed clarity.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
AUB Bank
AUB merger
AUB swap
Atlantic highlight
Bank American
Bank confidence
Bankshares result
CECL modeling
Carolina average
Carolina unemployment
Day month
Day presentation
Investor Day
Loan production
Loan yield
Maryland average
Olivia Atlantic
Quarterly loan
Relations Olivia
Relations statement
Union Bankshares
Virginia unemployment
ability effort
acquisition interest
commitment
conference
government
improvement
loan market
market rate
percentage point
point asset
rate percentage
rate swap
review
strength
swap income
swap program
unemployment rate
AUB Transcript
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown1-22
The earnings call presents a mixed picture. Financial performance shows a decline in deposits and increased expenses, but positive loan growth and a stable business outlook. The Q&A highlights uncertainties in guidance and challenges in expansion, with some unclear responses. Despite strong loan growth and strategic expansion, the lack of clarity and potential risks such as fraud and market conditions balance out the positives, leading to a neutral sentiment. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, with stock price movement expected between -2% to 2%.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive10-23
The earnings call reveals strong loan and deposit growth projections and positive credit trends. Despite a slight decrease in deposits, demand deposits increased, and net income and earnings per share were solid. The Q&A section highlights achievable loan growth and margin expansion, with no significant issues in the Sandy Spring portfolio. The strategic expansion in North Carolina and plans for capital returns further bolster confidence. The market cap indicates moderate sensitivity to news, supporting a positive stock price movement prediction of 2% to 8%.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive7-25
The earnings call summary and Q&A reveal strong financial performance, optimistic growth in the Carolinas, and stable credit quality, despite higher expenses due to acquisition. The acquisition of Sandy Spring and a potential share repurchase plan are positive indicators. Though management was vague on some points, the overall sentiment is optimistic. Given the company's market cap and the positive outlook, a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks is likely.
Atlantic Union Bankshares Corporation (AUB) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown4-24
The earnings call reflects a mixed sentiment. The merger announcement and cost savings are positives, but increased loan loss provisions and uncertain economic conditions are concerning. The Q&A revealed some management evasiveness, especially regarding the CRE loan sale and tariffs, adding uncertainty. While some financial metrics improved, the overall outlook remains cautious. Given the company's mid-cap status, a neutral stock price movement is expected over the next two weeks.
AUB Slides
AUB Report
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