Should I Buy ASTH? ASTH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

22.410

1 Day change

1.86%

52 Week Range

39.970

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

ASTH is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who is impatient and doesn’t want to wait for a better entry. Despite being technically oversold, the prevailing trend is clearly bearish (negative/expanding MACD, bearish moving averages), near-term pattern odds point to further downside, and the latest quarter shows severe profitability/margin deterioration. The setup looks more like a high-volatility bounce attempt than a stable long-term entry today.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bearish and weakening. MACD histogram is -0.459 and expanding negatively, signaling downside momentum is still building. RSI(6) at 19.25 is deeply oversold, which can support a short-term bounce, but oversold conditions can persist in strong downtrends. Moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), confirming a sustained downtrend. Key levels: S1 ~22.021 is being tested pre-market (~21.98), so the stock is sitting at/just under an important support; next support S2 ~19.944. Upside resistance/pivot is far above at ~25.383, meaning a rebound would still face heavy overhead resistance. Pattern-based odds provided also skew negative (60% chance of declines over next day/week/month).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning is mixed but volatility is elevated. Open interest put/call ratio at 0.15 is call-heavy (generally bullish positioning). However, option volume put/call ratio at 3.33 indicates puts dominated trading volume that day, which can reflect bearish sentiment or hedging demand. Implied vol (30d) ~76.55 vs historical vol ~96.24, with IV percentile ~85 suggests options are pricing high uncertainty. Volume vs 30-day average is very high (~27.66x), indicating unusual activity, consistent with heightened near-term risk and event/uncertainty pricing.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

No major news catalysts in the last week. Potential positives from the data set: (1) Deeply oversold RSI could trigger a technical rebound; (2) Multiple Street analysts still carry Buy ratings and long-term growth narrative around value-based care and risk-based contracting; (3) Call-heavy open interest (low OI put/call) suggests some investors are positioned for upside over time.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

No fresh news, but sentiment drivers are negative: (1) Strong bearish trend (negative/expanding MACD and bearish MAs) suggests sellers remain in control; (2) Pattern-based probabilities imply further downside near term; (3) Profitability deterioration in the latest quarter (net income/EPS collapse and margin compression) raises fundamental concern; (4) Analysts have been cutting price targets recently (even while often maintaining ratings), signaling reduced confidence/visibility; (5) Put-heavy option volume indicates near-term demand for downside protection or bearish positioning.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $956.048M (+99.71% YoY), showing very strong top-line growth. However, profitability sharply deteriorated: net income fell to ~$0.373M (-97.68% YoY) and EPS dropped to $0.01 (-96.97% YoY). Gross margin declined to 8.53 (-38.32% YoY). Bottom line: growth is strong, but the quality of growth (margins and earnings power) weakened materially in the latest quarter, which is not ideal for a beginner long-term entry right now.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent Street view is mixed-to-positive on rating, but price targets have been cut. Needham initiated with Buy and a $28 target (2025-12-12), citing value-based care inflection and potential 20%-30% long-term growth. However, several firms lowered targets after Q3 and/or on cautious forward assumptions: Jefferies cut PT to $37 from $44 (Buy), Barclays cut PT to $26 from $36 (Equal Weight), TD Cowen cut PT to $35 from $40 (Buy). Wall Street pros: long-term growth opportunity in value-based care/full-risk deals and potential Medicare Advantage upside. Cons: higher risk/uncertainty around contracting timing and 2026-2027 EBITDA visibility, plus the recent margin/profit compression.

8 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ASTH stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ASTH is 31.5 USD with a low forecast of 26 USD and a high forecast of 37 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 22.000

Low

Averages

31.5

High

Current: 22.000

Low

Averages

31.5

High

Needham

Matthew Shea

initiated

$28

AI Analysis

2025-12-12

Reason

Needham

Matthew Shea

Price Target

$28

AI Analysis

2025-12-12

initiated

Reason

Needham analyst Matthew Shea initiated coverage of Astrana Health with a Buy rating and $28 price target. The firm believes value-based care "is at an inflection point," with higher reimbursement rates and heightened utilization working their way into benchmarks. Astrana is "leaning into full risk deals at a greater rate than others in our coverage," the analyst tells investors in a research note. Needham believes the shift to risk and organic growth opportunities in core and emerging markets can drive 20%-30% growth for Astrana Health over the long term.

Jefferies

Buy

downgrade

$44 -> $37

2025-11-25

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$44 -> $37

2025-11-25

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on Astrana Health to $37 from $44 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The bar for fiscal 2026 EBITDA is low and implies little confidence in the full-risk contract conversion delays that management is assuming will be effective in the first quarter of 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Jefferies believes potential upside for Astrana from Medicare Advantage in 2026 is underappreciated, but thinks proof-points on 1H26 trends are needed to restore confidence.

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ASTH Should I Buy

ASTH Should I Buy

Should You Buy Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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