ASTH Should I Buy
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Astrana Health Inc (ASTH) is not a strong buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this time. The stock is experiencing a bearish technical trend, weak financial performance, and lacks significant positive catalysts. While analysts maintain a generally positive long-term outlook, the current market conditions and company-specific challenges suggest holding off on investment until clearer signs of recovery or growth emerge.
The technical indicators for ASTH suggest a bearish trend. The MACD is negative and contracting, RSI is neutral but near oversold levels, and the moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its support level of 18.672, with resistance at 22.69. The recent price drop (-4.57% in regular trading) further confirms the bearish sentiment.
Analysts believe in long-term growth potential for value-based care, with higher reimbursement rates and organic growth opportunities. The company is expected to benefit from Medicare Advantage in 2026, and analysts see potential upside if management can address investor concerns with favorable guidance.
The company is under pressure due to macroeconomic challenges and high medical trends, which are unfavorable for value-based care stocks. Financial performance in Q3 2025 showed a significant decline in net income (-97.68% YoY) and gross margin (-38.32% YoY). Analysts have lowered price targets recently, citing risks to EBITDA targets and delays in contract conversions.
In Q3 2025, revenue increased significantly by 99.71% YoY to $956.05M. However, net income dropped sharply by -97.68% YoY to $373K, and EPS declined by -96.97% YoY to 0.01. Gross margin also decreased to 8.53%, down -38.32% YoY, indicating profitability challenges.
Analysts have mixed views but maintain a generally positive long-term outlook. Recent ratings include Buy ratings from BTIG, Needham, and Jefferies, with price targets ranging from $26 to $40. However, Barclays downgraded the price target to $26 with an Equal Weight rating, citing risks to EBITDA targets and contract delays.
