ASTH Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ASTH performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ASTH sees a +2.63% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -4.23% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.17%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ASTH Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
478.71M
37.49%
-1.55%
Gross Margin
13.83%
-29.69%
1.84%
Operating Margin
5.94%
-47.11%
-3.88%
Net Margin
3.97%
-50.56%
-11.78%
EPS
0.33
-29.79%
-17.50%
No Data Available
ASTH Earnings Analysis
Astrana Health Inc. Common Stock Corporation (ASTH.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Q3 Revenue Surge: 1. Revenue Growth: Astrana Health reported total revenue of $478.7 million for Q3 2024, representing a 37% increase from the prior year period.
Adjusted EBITDA Growth: 2. Adjusted EBITDA Increase: Year-to-date adjusted EBITDA grew by 15%, reaching $135.3 million compared to $117.6 million in the first three quarters of 2023.
Membership Base Milestone: 3. Membership Expansion: The company achieved a membership base of around 1 million members as of September 30, 2024, with over 200 primary care providers and 900 specialists added to its network.
Capitation Revenue Increase: 4. Increased Capitation Revenue: As of October 1, 2024, full risk business accounted for approximately 61% of total capitation revenue, up from 46% a year earlier, with a goal of reaching two-thirds by January 1, 2025.
Cash Reserves Stability: 5. Strong Cash Position: Astrana Health ended the quarter with $348 million in cash and cash equivalents, maintaining a solid financial foundation for future growth.
Negative
EBITDA Decline Analysis: 1. Declining Adjusted EBITDA: Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2024 was $45.2 million, a 13% decrease from $52 million in the prior year period.
Net Income Decline: 2. Decreased Net Income: Net income attributable to Astrana for the quarter was $16.1 million, down 27% from $22.1 million in the prior year quarter.
Earnings Per Share Decline: 3. Lower Earnings Per Share: Earnings per diluted share for the quarter stood at $0.33, down from $0.47 in the prior year period.
Adjusted EBITDA Revision: 4. Revised EBITDA Guidance: The company revised its adjusted EBITDA guidance for the full year to a range of $165 million to $175 million, down from the previous outlook of $165 million to $185 million.
Negative EBITDA Impact: 5. Negative Impact from CHS Acquisition: The acquisition of Collaborative Health Systems is expected to have a negative $4 million adjusted EBITDA impact in Q4 2024.
ASTH FAQs
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ASTH Earning Call Sentiment
Astrana Health, Inc. (ASTH) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
ASTH.O
-1.2%Positive
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Revenue and partnerships show growth potential, but financial metrics like EBITDA and net income are declining. Guidance adjustments are modest, and Q&A responses reveal uncertainties, especially in Medicaid redetermination and integration risks. Despite some positive developments, such as increased Medicaid funding, the overall sentiment is tempered by operational challenges and vague management responses, leading to a neutral outlook.
