Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Overview
The earnings call reveals strong growth prospects driven by product launches and market expansion, particularly for YORVIPATH and TransCon CNP. Despite some competitive and pricing uncertainties, management's confidence in their differentiated products and global infrastructure suggests positive sentiment. The strategic plan outlines ambitious revenue targets, supporting a positive outlook. However, lack of clear guidance on pricing and competition could temper enthusiasm slightly. Overall, the sentiment leans towards positive, anticipating a stock price increase within the 2% to 8% range.
Key Financial Performance
YORVIPATH Q4 Revenue EUR 187 million, a significant increase from EUR 140 million in Q3. The growth is attributed to strong global performance and expanded patient access.
YORVIPATH Full Year 2025 Revenue EUR 477 million, negatively impacted by EUR 27 million due to a weaker U.S. dollar.
SKYTROFA Q4 Revenue EUR 53 million, reflecting solid performance with negligible foreign currency impact.
SKYTROFA Full Year 2025 Revenue EUR 206 million, negatively impacted by EUR 9 million due to a weaker U.S. dollar.
Total Q4 2025 Revenue EUR 248 million, including EUR 7 million in collaboration revenue.
Total Full Year 2025 Revenue EUR 720 million, driven by strong performance of YORVIPATH and SKYTROFA.
Total Q4 2025 Operating Expenses EUR 214 million, reflecting investments in strategic priorities.
Total Full Year 2025 Operating Expenses EUR 761 million, aligned with the company's growth and development goals.
Q4 2025 Operating Profit EUR 10 million, supported by strong revenue growth.
Q4 2025 Operating Cash Flow EUR 73 million, indicating robust financial health.
Full Year 2025 Net Finance Expense EUR 93 million net, primarily driven by noncash items including remeasurement loss of financial liabilities of EUR 106 million.
Full Year 2025 Net Cash Financial Expense EUR 8 million, reflecting financial stability.
Cash and Cash Equivalents at Year-End 2025 EUR 616 million, an increase from EUR 560 million at the end of 2024, showcasing strong cash management.
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Operating Highlights
TransCon Growth Hormone (TransCon hGH): Approved in the U.S. for adult and pediatric growth hormone deficiency. Approved in the EU for pediatric growth hormone deficiency.
TransCon PTH: Approved in the U.S. for hypoparathyroidism in adults. Approved in the EU and UK for chronic hypoparathyroidism in adults.
YORVIPATH: Generated EUR 477 million in revenue for 2025. Available in over 30 countries with full commercial reimbursement in 6 countries. U.S. insurance approval rate is 70%. Development underway to expand label to include patients under 18 and once-weekly dosing. Commercially launched in Japan in November 2025. Expected full commercial launches in 10 additional countries in 2026.
SKYTROFA: Generated EUR 206 million in revenue for 2025. Approved for pediatric and adult growth hormone deficiency in the U.S. Market share of 7% in the U.S. Development underway for additional growth hormone indications and novel uses like achondroplasia. Recently approved in China in January 2026. Expansion into additional growth hormone indications globally.
Financial Performance: Achieved EUR 720 million in total revenue for 2025. Operating cash flow of EUR 73 million in Q4 2025. Expected operating cash flow of EUR 500 million in 2026.
Pipeline Development: Advancing clinical trials for label expansion of YORVIPATH and SKYTROFA. Progressing combination therapy trials for achondroplasia.
Vision 2030: Aiming for EUR 5 billion in annual product revenue by 2030. Focus on partnerships and collaborations to expand product opportunities.
Partnerships: Collaboration with Novo Nordisk for once-monthly TransCon semaglutide. Teijin partnership for YORVIPATH in Japan.
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Risk or Challenges
Regulatory Approvals and Compliance: The company faces risks related to regulatory approvals for its products, such as the pending U.S. approval of TransCon CNP and ongoing reviews in the EU. Delays or negative outcomes could impact commercialization timelines and revenue projections.
Insurance Approval Rates: The insurance approval rate for YORVIPATH in the U.S. is currently about 70%, which, while improving, could limit patient access and slow revenue growth if not addressed.
Currency Exchange Rates: The weaker U.S. dollar negatively impacted revenue for YORVIPATH and SKYTROFA in 2025, highlighting the risk of foreign currency fluctuations on financial performance.
Market Penetration Challenges: Despite strong growth, YORVIPATH has reached less than 5% of the U.S. patient population, indicating significant challenges in market penetration and patient adoption.
Pipeline Development Risks: The company is heavily reliant on the success of its pipeline products, including TransCon CNP and combination therapies. Any setbacks in clinical trials or regulatory approvals could adversely affect future growth.
Geographic Expansion Risks: The company plans to launch YORVIPATH in 10 additional countries in 2026. Delays or challenges in achieving commercial reimbursement in these markets could impact revenue growth.
Operational Costs: Total operating expenses for 2025 were EUR 761 million, which could strain financial resources if revenue growth does not keep pace.
Supply Chain and Manufacturing: The company did not explicitly mention supply chain risks, but the global nature of its operations and product launches in multiple countries could expose it to potential disruptions.
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Guidance & Outlook
Operating Cash Flow: Ascendis expects to achieve operating cash flow of around EUR 500 million in 2026.
Annual Product Revenue: The company aspires to achieve at least EUR 5 billion in annual product revenue by 2030.
YORVIPATH Growth: YORVIPATH is expected to see additional growth in 2026 and beyond, supported by expanded patient access and treatment guidelines. Full commercial launches are planned in 10 additional countries in 2026.
YORVIPATH Label Expansion: Development activities are underway to broaden YORVIPATH's label, including expanding the range of doses and extending its use to patients under the age of 18.
Once-Weekly TransCon PTH: Development is progressing for a once-weekly TransCon PTH for patients stabilized on daily YORVIPATH or conventional therapy.
SKYTROFA Growth: SKYTROFA revenue is expected to grow in 2026, with long-term growth driven by geographic and label expansion.
TransCon CNP Approval: The U.S. NDA for TransCon CNP for children with achondroplasia is under review, with a PDUFA date of February 28, 2026. EU regulatory decision is expected in Q4 2026.
Combination Therapy for Achondroplasia: Phase III trials for the combination of TransCon CNP and TransCon Growth Hormone are planned, with updates expected midyear and year-end 2026.
Partnerships and Collaborations: The company plans to advance partnerships, including TransCon semaglutide with Novo Nordisk and TransCon anti-VEGF entering the clinic in 2026.
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Shareholder Return Plan
The selected topic was not discussed during the call.
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Key Q&A
Q:What's your confidence level heading into the TransCon CNP PDUFA? Are you comfortable that the issue leading to the review extension has been resolved to the FDA's satisfaction?
A:Jan Mikkelsen expressed confidence, stating that he believes TransCon CNP will be approved, similar to his confidence in the approval of TransCon PTH.
Q:You mentioned a 70% insurance approval rate in the U.S. so far for YORVIPATH. Where is that relative to where you thought it would be at this stage of the launch? And what is it going to take to expand that to a higher number?
A:Jan Mikkelsen and Jay Wu stated that they are satisfied with the 70% approval rate, noting that it is a strong start. They mentioned that reaching 100% is unlikely, as the highest approval rates typically reach 85-90%. They also highlighted differences in approval processes between the U.S. and other countries, with ex-U.S. systems often achieving 100% approval upon prescription.
Q:Just on YORVIPATH pricing, so there's an 8% WACC increase in January. Maybe you could just discuss how net pricing will trend this year, including how to kind of quantify the magnitude of the 1Q seasonality here?
A:Jan Mikkelsen declined to discuss net pricing, stating that the company has never disclosed such details and does not plan to do so.
Q:Are you planning to still report those forms going forward for YORVIPATH or maybe just focus more on revenue?
A:Jan Mikkelsen stated that the company will focus on revenue moving forward, as they have established a steady-state development in the market.
Q:Can you give us a little bit of a sense for YORVI, how it's being used out there? Are physicians prescribing it broadly or focusing on specific patient groups?
A:Jay Wu explained that there is broad uptake across prescribers, with some seeing only a few patients and others seeing more. He noted that the depth of prescribing per physician is increasing, and the majority of patients are post-surgical (70%), with the remaining 30% due to other factors like genetics or autoimmune conditions.
Q:Can you give us an update on the end of Phase II meeting with FDA relating to CNP and growth hormone for achondroplasia? What was the outcome, and when will you start the Phase III?
A:Jan Mikkelsen reported positive feedback from both U.S. and EU regulators, highlighting impressive data on linear growth, body proportionality, and arm span improvements. The company is ready to start the Phase III trial, with recruitment expected to proceed quickly.
Q:Can you help us understand how the TransCon CNP launch could factor into your EUR 500 million operating cash flow target for 2026, particularly with respect to launch investment and early revenue contribution?
A:Jan Mikkelsen stated that the TransCon CNP launch is not incorporated into the EUR 500 million target. He expects high initial uptake and plans to provide updated guidance after observing the launch.
Q:What is your confidence level around YORVIPATH growth ex-U.S.? How will the launch in Germany and Austria compare to other countries?
A:Jan Mikkelsen explained that growth ex-U.S. is heterogeneous, with different speeds of penetration depending on the country. He noted that countries like Spain and France have faster uptake due to more endocrinologists, while Germany has slower uptake. He expects acceleration in patient uptake as more countries achieve full reimbursement.
Q:Can you give us a little bit of color on how you expect your TransCon CNP launch to go? Where do you think you will capture the majority of patients initially?
A:Jan Mikkelsen highlighted the benefits of TransCon CNP, including improved tolerability, reduced injection site reactions, and benefits beyond linear growth, such as improved muscle strength and quality of life. He expects strong initial uptake due to these advantages.
Q:Can you elaborate on your strategy for commercializing TransCon CNP ex-U.S.? How are you thinking about the cadence of uptake and which segments do you expect the most uptake from between treatment-naive versus switches?
A:Jan Mikkelsen emphasized the company's established global infrastructure, which will support rapid commercialization. He expects broad uptake across treatment-naive and switch patients, leveraging the success of YORVIPATH's global strategy.
Q:As we look at the EUR 5 billion number you've put out there for product sales by 2030, how do you think about the relative contributions of your presumably 3 products by that point in time?
A:Jan Mikkelsen stated that the company aims to build a sustainable revenue flow across multiple products and regions, with 3 approved products in 20 indications across 30-40 countries. He emphasized the durability and value of their product pipeline.
Q:Will you be in a position to file an sNDA for the newborn incident population this year? Does your study design allow for those newborn patients to be included in the study population?
A:Jan Mikkelsen explained that regulatory pathways differ by region, with Europe being more flexible than the U.S. He noted that the company is generating data through a placebo-controlled trial and has seen positive early signals in sentinel patients.
Q:Is it reasonable to expect that the weekly TransCon PTH program could potentially enter the clinic in 2026? What is the most efficient clinical pathway to take the weekly PTH to approval?
A:Jan Mikkelsen stated that the weekly TransCon PTH program is designed to match the PK profile of the daily product, which could simplify the clinical pathway. He emphasized the importance of demonstrating bioequivalence to YORVIPATH.
Q:How are you thinking about the competitive landscape for YORVIPATH, particularly with emerging agents like encaleret?
A:Jan Mikkelsen dismissed encaleret as a viable competitor, arguing that it does not address the underlying hormone deficiency in hypoparathyroidism. He emphasized the comprehensive benefits of YORVIPATH as a hormone replacement therapy.
Q:Can you discuss your latest thoughts on the CNP competitive landscape, including upcoming FGFR data from BridgeBio and the earlier-stage long-acting CNP from BioMarin?
A:Jan Mikkelsen expressed confidence in TransCon CNP's differentiation, citing its safety, tolerability, and benefits beyond linear growth. He raised concerns about the nonspecific action of FGFR inhibitors and their potential long-term risks.
Q:Could you give any color on the once-monthly TransCon semaglutide program?
A:Jan Mikkelsen explained that the program aims to achieve fast weight loss with high tolerability by using a packed semaglutide design that avoids the steep Tmax associated with naked molecules. This design minimizes tolerability issues while maintaining efficacy.
Q:Could you talk a little bit about OpEx trajectory in 2026 in the context of the CNP launch and SKYTROFA label expansion?
A:Scott Smith stated that Q4 OpEx is a reasonable run rate for 2026, with no major changes expected. Jan Mikkelsen added that the company's mature infrastructure supports new launches without significant cost increases.
Q:How are you thinking about the competitive landscape for TransCon CNP, particularly with BioMarin's long-acting CNP and BridgeBio's FGFR inhibitors?
A:Jan Mikkelsen expressed skepticism about the viability of BioMarin's long-acting CNP without seeing detailed data. He also raised concerns about the nonspecific action of FGFR inhibitors, particularly their potential long-term risks to brain development.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided directly answering questions about net pricing trends for YORVIPATH and the specific contributions of individual products to the EUR 5 billion sales target by 2030. They also provided limited details on the clinical pathway for the weekly TransCon PTH program and the competitive implications of BioMarin's long-acting CNP.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Advice meeting
CNP SKYTROFA
CNP TransCon
EUR product
Healthcare
Investor Relations
Japan
Phase II
Phase III
President Investor
Teijin
TransCon product
YORVIPATH EUR
YORVIPATH treatment
age
clinic
combination trial
disorder term
effect
endocrine disease
enrollment
exposure
flow EUR
focus
height
monotherapies
monotherapy
outcome
patient YORVIPATH
power
product opportunity
reminder
role
safety tolerability
today program
track
treatment child
treatment hormone
trial TransCon
ASND Transcript
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive2-11
The earnings call reveals strong growth prospects driven by product launches and market expansion, particularly for YORVIPATH and TransCon CNP. Despite some competitive and pricing uncertainties, management's confidence in their differentiated products and global infrastructure suggests positive sentiment. The strategic plan outlines ambitious revenue targets, supporting a positive outlook. However, lack of clear guidance on pricing and competition could temper enthusiasm slightly. Overall, the sentiment leans towards positive, anticipating a stock price increase within the 2% to 8% range.
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Presents at 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference Transcript
Neutral1-12
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive11-12
The earnings call presents a strong financial performance with expected revenue growth from YORVIPATH and SKYTROFA, supported by label expansions and global launches. The company anticipates becoming cash flow positive, which is a positive indicator. The Q&A section highlights confidence in overcoming challenges, with high patient retention rates and strategic market penetration. The overall sentiment is positive, supported by optimistic guidance and strategic growth plans, likely leading to a stock price increase in the short term.
Ascendis Pharma A/S (ASND) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive8-9
The earnings call reveals a strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and a successful launch of YORVIPATH. Despite increased SG&A expenses due to global expansion, the company shows a positive outlook with steady patient enrollment and high compliance rates. The Q&A section highlighted management's efforts to improve processes and their optimistic view of market potential. Although some guidance was not provided, the overall sentiment is positive, suggesting a potential stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
ASND Report
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