Should I Buy ARVN? ARVN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Arvinas Inc (ARVN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

13.340

1 Day change

-0.30%

52 Week Range

20.380

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. ARVN is in a strong short-term uptrend, but it’s currently overbought (RSI ~85) and trading near resistance (~$13.37–$13.80). With no proprietary “buy today” signals, no fresh news catalyst, and weakening Y/Y fundamentals, the risk/reward for buying at this exact level is unfavorable. Best decision today: HOLD (wait rather than buy at this price).

Technical Analysis

Trend is bullish but extended. MACD histogram is positive and expanding (momentum up). Moving averages are stacked bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), confirming an uptrend. However, RSI_6 at ~84.9 signals the move is overbought/overextended and more prone to a pullback or sideways digestion. Key levels: Pivot support ~$12.68 (first area where a pullback could become a better entry), S1 ~$11.99. Resistance: R1 ~$13.37 (near current pre-market ~$13.67, already pushing above), next R2 ~$13.80. Pattern-based forward read: modest upside bias over week/month, but next-day odds skew slightly negative (60% chance of ~-0.63%).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options sentiment is strongly call-skewed (both OI and volume put/call ratios are very low), suggesting bullish/speculative positioning. Call open interest (26,099) dwarfs put OI (5,502). Volume is elevated vs the 30-day average (today vs avg ~822.8%), indicating unusually heavy activity. Implied volatility is high (30D IV ~73% vs HV ~69.7%), but IV percentile ~39.6 and IV rank ~22 suggest it’s not at an extreme vs its own history. Net: sentiment is bullish, but heavy call activity after a run-up can also coincide with crowded positioning near resistance.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Wall Street tone improved: multiple Overweight/Buy ratings and higher price targets (roughly $14–$18; Citi upgrade to Buy with $15).
Bullish options positioning (very low put/call ratios + surge in volume) suggests traders are leaning upside.
Upcoming earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-23 pre-market could be an event-driven catalyst if pipeline updates or guidance are favorable.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Technicals are stretched: RSI ~85 (overbought) and price is pressing into the $13.37–$13.80 resistance zone—poor timing risk for an immediate long-term entry.
No Intellectia proprietary “strong buy” triggers today (no AI Stock Picker; no SwingMax), reducing conviction for buying right now.
Fundamentals show Y/Y contraction in the latest quarter (revenue and EPS down significantly), which can cap long-term confidence until growth re-accelerates.
No recent supportive news flow this week; no notable hedge fund/insider accumulation signals provided; no recent congress trading data.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to $41.9M (down ~59.1% YoY). Net income was -$35.1M (worse YoY per the provided change), and EPS was -$0.48 (down ~29.4% YoY). Gross margin listed at 100% (flat). Overall: growth trends are negative YoY in the latest quarter, so the current bullishness is more sentiment/positioning-driven than fundamentals-driven.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend is improving: Citi upgraded ARVN to Buy (PT raised to $15 from $10), Barclays raised PT to $18 and maintained Overweight, Stephens raised PT to $15 (Overweight), BTIG raised PT to $14 (Buy). Wall Street pros: improving outlook and pipeline value arguments (e.g., ARV-393/102/806 and target indications). Cons: the stock has seen volatility around program resets and the financial trajectory (revenue/EPS declines) doesn’t yet show durable growth, so upside is tied to clinical/biotech catalyst execution.

10 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ARVN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARVN is 14.25 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 18 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

6 Buy

3 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 13.380

Low

Averages

14.25

High

Current: 13.380

Low

Averages

14.25

High

Citi

Yigal Nochomovitz

Neutral -> Buy

upgrade

$10 -> $15

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

Reason

Citi

Yigal Nochomovitz

Price Target

$10 -> $15

AI Analysis

2026-01-06

upgrade

Neutral -> Buy

Reason

Citi analyst Yigal Nochomovitz upgraded Arvinas to Buy from Neutral with a price target of $15, up from $10. The firm sees opportunities in SMID-cap biotech heading into 2026 for commercial or near-commercial stage companies. As part of its 2026 outlook, Citi upgraded both Arvinas and Krystal Biotech while adding an "upside 90-day catalyst watch" on Olema Oncology.

Cantor Fitzgerald

Overweight

initiated

$38

2025-12-22

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald

Price Target

$38

2025-12-22

initiated

Overweight

Reason

Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of ArriVent Biopharma with an Overweight rating. Firmonertinib is approved in China for first-line non-small cell lung cancer with classical EGFR mutations, notes the analyst, who views the tyrosine kinase inhibitor as positioned to be a first-in-class TKI for first-line uncommon/non-classical EGFR mutations where unmet need is high in the U.S. The firm is assigning 60%-plus probability of success for two Phase 3 readouts and models unadjusted peak sales of $2B in the bull case. The firm estimates the shares are worth $38, implying 71% upside, the analyst added.

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ARVN Should I Buy

ARVN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Arvinas Inc (ARVN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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