Should I Buy ARR? ARR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

18.290

1 Day change

-0.97%

52 Week Range

19.310

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

Buy (long-term, beginner-friendly). ARR is in a broader uptrend (bullish moving-average stack) and Wall Street sentiment just turned more positive with recent upgrades and a $20.50 target (implying meaningful upside from ~18.57). While short-term momentum is mixed (MACD slightly negative) and insider selling is a clear negative, the current price is sitting near the first support zone (S1 ~18.21), which makes it an acceptable “buy now” level for an impatient long-term investor using a gradual entry (e.g., start now and add on dips closer to 18.20).

Technical Analysis

Trend is still constructive: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 signals a bullish structure. Momentum is not fully aligned: MACD histogram is -0.0568 (below zero) but contracting, suggesting downside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI_6 ~56.9 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). Price (~18.57 pre-market) is below the pivot (18.672), so near-term it’s mildly weak, but it’s also close to support (S1 18.206; S2 17.918). Upside levels to watch are R1 19.138 and R2 19.426—clearing 19.14 would improve the near-term setup.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning is mixed: open-interest put/call at 1.41 suggests heavier outstanding put positioning (more hedging/caution). However, today’s option volume put/call at 0.14 shows calls dominating current trading flow (more bullish near-term speculation). Implied volatility is very low (IV percentile ~0.8), indicating complacency/low priced optionality; this tends to align with a calmer outlook but can also mean less “fear premium” in the market right now.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

1) Analyst sentiment improving: multiple recent Buy ratings and a raised/initiated target up to $20.50, with commentary that book value tailwinds may make shares undervalued vs agency peers. 2) Technical backdrop: bullish long-term moving-average stack supports a longer-horizon buy case. 3) Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-18 after hours could be a catalyst if book value/spreads or guidance are favorable.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

1) Insider activity: insiders are net sellers, with selling up ~173% over the last month—this is a notable sentiment negative. 2) Near-term tape is not strongly bullish: price is below the pivot and the MACD is still slightly negative. 3) The provided news summary appears unrelated to ARR (it references American Rare Earths), so there’s no clear ARR-specific event-driven tailwind indicated by the news feed here.

Financial Performance

Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth trends were strong YoY: revenue $344.2M (+70.78%), net income $156.256M (+148.48%), EPS 1.49 (+23.14%), and gross margin 50.13 (+32.37%). On the data given, fundamentals improved materially versus the prior year, supporting a longer-term buy thesis (with the next key checkpoint being QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend is clearly improving: Compass Point initiated with Buy and an $18.50 target (2025-12-15), followed by Jones Research upgrading to Buy from Hold with a higher $20.50 target (2026-01-15/16). Wall Street pro view (pros): potential undervaluation vs peers and expected book value uplift from spread changes. Cons: insider selling is heavy recently, and near-term price action is not breaking out yet (still under pivot/resistance). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently. Politicians/influential figures: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity indicated in the dataset.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast ARR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARR is 18.5 USD with a low forecast of 18.5 USD and a high forecast of 18.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 18.470

Low

18.5

Averages

18.5

High

18.5

Current: 18.470

Low

18.5

Averages

18.5

High

18.5

JonesResearch

Hold

Buy

upgrade

$20.50

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

Reason

JonesResearch

Price Target

$20.50

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

upgrade

Hold

Buy

Reason

JonesResearch upgraded Armour Residential REIT to Buy from Hold with a $20.50 price target. The firm says that given the changes seen in spreads, which boost the company's estimated book value, it sees on track for share outperformance in the near term. The expected increase in book value indicates Armour shares are undervalued versus its agency peers, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

JonesResearch

Hold

Buy

upgrade

$20.50

2026-01-15

Reason

JonesResearch

Price Target

$20.50

2026-01-15

upgrade

Hold

Buy

Reason

JonesResearch upgraded Armour Residential REIT to Buy from Hold with a $20.50 price target.

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ARR Should I Buy

ARR Should I Buy

Should You Buy ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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