Should You Buy Ares Management Corp (ARES) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
149.800
1 Day change
0.28%
52 Week Range
200.490
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY for a long-term beginner right now. ARES is technically washed-out (extreme oversold RSI) near key support while fundamentals (Q3’25 growth) and Wall Street price targets are trending higher into the Feb 5 earnings catalyst. Options flow is very put-heavy (near-term fear/hedging), which often accompanies bottoming attempts; with your long-term preference and impatience to wait, the current pullback is a reasonable entry.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Setup: Short-term trend is bearish/weak (MACD histogram -2.784 and negatively expanding), but the stock is extremely oversold (RSI_6 ≈ 11), which increases odds of a bounce or at least stabilization.
Key Levels: Pre-market ~153. Support S1 ~149.6 (very close) then S2 ~142.7. Pivot ~160.7 is the near-term level to reclaim to turn momentum more constructive; resistances R1 ~171.8 and R2 ~178.6.
Read-through: Price is sitting just above major support with oversold conditions—good risk/reward for a long-term entry, even if near-term volatility persists.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Options are skewed bearish/defensive near-term—Open Interest Put/Call = 1.22 (more puts than calls outstanding) and an extremely high Put/Call Volume ratio = 15.87 with today’s volume elevated vs 30-day average (~133%).
Volatility: Implied vol (30d) ~43.5 vs historical vol ~37.9, and IV percentile ~82—options are pricing elevated uncertainty (likely around upcoming earnings on 2026-02-05).
Interpretation: Traders are paying up for protection/puts into an event window. For a long-term investor, this reads as near-term fear rather than a long-term thesis break, but it does imply choppiness around earnings.
Technical Summary
Sell
11
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
3) Secular tailwinds: Continued institutional/retail channel expansion in private markets (e.g., broader adoption of private investments in retirement solutions) supports alt managers’ long runway.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Momentum still negative: MACD is deteriorating; the stock can remain weak even when oversold.
2) Options market is positioned defensively: Very put-heavy volume suggests traders are braced for downside or volatility.
3) Sector narrative risk: Ongoing market sensitivity to private credit/exit/realization concerns can pressure the group.
4) Event risk into earnings (Feb 5): Elevated IV implies the market expects a sizable move either direction.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue $2.026B (+70.35% YoY), Net Income $252.9M (+128.64% YoY), EPS $1.15 (+109.09% YoY).
Takeaway: Strong YoY acceleration across revenue, profitability, and EPS supports a long-term bull case and helps justify buying on weakness versus chasing strength.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Clear upward drift in price targets through Dec 2025–Jan 2026. Oppenheimer raised PT to $224 (Outperform), Barclays to $222 (Overweight), Wolfe to $210 (Outperform), BofA to $214 (Buy), UBS initiated Neutral with $201, and Morgan Stanley lifted PT to $178 (Equal Weight).
Wall Street pros: Expect improved deal activity/realizations into 2026, view credit fears as overblown, and generally favor alternative managers.
Wall Street cons: Valuation/expectations are a debate point (e.g., Neutral/Equal Weight stances), and the group remains headline-sensitive to private credit and exits.
Influential trading check: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds/insiders show neutral recent trend (no strong directional signal).
Wall Street analysts forecast ARES stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARES is 196.55 USD with a low forecast of 175 USD and a high forecast of 222 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ARES stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ARES is 196.55 USD with a low forecast of 175 USD and a high forecast of 222 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 149.380
Low
175
Averages
196.55
High
222
Current: 149.380
Low
175
Averages
196.55
High
222
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
maintain
$175 -> $178
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$175 -> $178
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Ares Management to $178 from $175 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Ramping deal activity should be supportive for the alternative asset managers into Q4 and 2026, says the analyst, who raised EPS estimates by 4% and 1% ahead of consensus on average among the group as part of the firm's Q4 earnings preview.
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Outperform
maintain
$190 -> $224
2026-01-20
Reason
Oppenheimer
Oppenheimer
Price Target
$190 -> $224
2026-01-20
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on Ares Management to $224 from $190 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm adjusted targets in the alternative asset manager group as part of a Q4 preview.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for ARES
