ARES Should I Buy
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ARES is not a strong buy right now for a beginner long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 to deploy. The stock has positive medium-term business fundamentals and supportive institutional/congress signals, but the current technical setup is mixed and the options market is leaning cautious. Since you are impatient and do not want to wait for a perfect entry, I would still not call this an outright buy here; I would hold and wait for either a cleaner technical breakout or a better pullback entry.
Price closed at 121.66, up 3.10% on the regular session, outperforming the broader market's 0.85% gain. Momentum is improving: MACD histogram is positive and expanding, which supports near-term upside. RSI_6 at 59.34 is neutral-to-bullish and not stretched. However, the moving averages remain bearish with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, which means the broader trend is still not fully reversed. Price is near resistance at R1 120.663 and below R2 124.522, while pivot support sits at 114.418. Overall: short-term momentum is improving, but the longer-term trend is not yet decisively bullish.
Recent news is constructive: Whitestone REIT shareholders approved an all-cash acquisition by Ares Real Estate funds for about $1.7 billion, which should support Ares' growth and fee-generating activity. Also, North American direct lending funds raised at least $16 billion in Q2 2026, showing strong demand for Ares' core private credit franchises. Congress trading is also mildly positive, with 2 purchase transactions versus 1 sale over the last 90 days, indicating a favorable attitude from lawmakers. Analyst coverage remains broadly positive overall, with multiple Buy/Outperform/Overweight ratings still in place.
Analysts have been trimming price targets recently, showing some caution around near-term upside. Goldman Sachs removed Ares from its US Conviction List. Technically, the stock still sits under a bearish moving-average structure, which suggests the longer-term trend has not fully confirmed a durable breakout. The stock trend model also points to weaker performance over the next week and month despite a positive next-day estimate.
No usable latest-quarter financial snapshot was provided, so I cannot assess revenue, earnings, or AUM growth directly from the financial data here. From the news and analyst commentary, the latest quarter appears to have had mixed results: fundraising and deployments were strong, while fee-related performance revenues and some earnings metrics were softer. Analysts repeatedly noted that Ares' long-term earnings power continues to rise, which supports the business model even though quarterly earnings quality can be lumpy.
Wall Street remains constructive overall, but the tone has become more selective. Barclays kept Overweight and only slightly lowered its target to $139 from $140. Citizens kept Outperform but cut its target sharply to $160 from $190, signaling confidence in fundamentals but lower near-term valuation expectations. TD Cowen raised its target to $153 and kept Buy. BofA, Oppenheimer, and Barclays all remained positive despite trimming targets after the Q1 report. The pros view: strong fundraising, deployment, and long-term earnings growth. The cons view: some short-term earnings softness, lower fee-related performance revenues, and reduced near-term upside expectations.
