Should You Buy Antero Resources Corp (AR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
35.300
1 Day change
2.44%
52 Week Range
44.020
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY now for a long-term beginner investor. AR is positioned to benefit from the sharp near-term strength in U.S. natural gas pricing and has supportive sell-side targets well above the current ~$34 level. Technically the stock is consolidating near a breakout zone (R1 ~35.02), and options flow is strongly call-skewed, suggesting bullish near-term sentiment. While earnings on 2026-02-11 can move the stock, the current setup is favorable enough to enter immediately rather than waiting for a “perfect” pullback.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Setup: Mildly bullish but consolidating. MACD histogram is positive (0.329) but contracting, implying upside momentum is present but slowing. RSI(6) ~58.6 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). Moving averages are converging, consistent with a coil/consolidation.
Key levels: Pivot 33.36 is the key near-term line—holding above it keeps the bias positive. First resistance R1 35.02 (near-term breakout trigger); next resistance R2 36.05. Supports: S1 31.69, S2 30.66.
Pattern-probability read: Similar-pattern model suggests modest upside bias (approx. +1.03% next week; +8.98% next month), consistent with a buy-now stance.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
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Options Data
Neutral
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bullish-to-neutral. Open interest put/call ~0.98 is roughly balanced (positioning not extreme), but the option volume put/call ~0.14 is strongly call-skewed (traders are buying calls far more than puts), indicating bullish near-term sentiment.
Volatility: 30D IV ~43.6 vs HV ~45.0 (similar), with IV percentile ~70—options are relatively expensive vs the past year, often seen when catalysts/commodity moves are active.
Activity: Volume is elevated versus typical levels (today vs 30D avg shown as very high), reinforcing that AR is a “focus” name during the current gas-price move.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
Natural gas futures have surged sharply in recent days on extreme weather/heating demand and potential production disruptions—directly supportive for a gas-levered E&P like AR.
Strategic/M&A narrative remains supportive: prior commentary highlights benefits from the HG acquisition and West Virginia datacenter/strategic demand angle.
Upcoming earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-11 (after hours) with Street EPS estimate around 0.43—could re-rate the stock if realized pricing/cash flow is strong.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Commodity sensitivity: AR’s equity can retrace quickly if the weather-driven gas spike fades.
Sell-side concern is emerging around longer-dated natural gas oversupply risk (notably 2027), which is already pressuring some price targets.
Technical overhead: price is approaching a clear resistance band near ~35–36; failure to clear it can prolong consolidation.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to ~$1.175B (+13.22% YoY), showing top-line improvement. However, profitability fell sharply: Net income ~$76.2M (down materially YoY) and EPS $0.24 (down materially YoY). Gross margin improved to ~18.19 (up strongly YoY), indicating better unit economics, but net results were pressured (common in E&Ps due to commodity/hedging and non-cash items). Overall: growth in revenue/margins is a plus, but earnings volatility remains high.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets have been trimmed in January (Morgan Stanley to $46 from $48; Barclays to $41 from $46; BofA to $39 from $47) reflecting tighter commodity assumptions and near-term uncertainty. Despite cuts, several firms still maintain constructive stances (e.g., MS Overweight; BofA Buy; Wells Fargo Outperform/Overweight with $49; UBS Buy $46; Mizuho Outperform $47), while Barclays remains more neutral (Equal Weight).
Wall Street pros: (a) strategic/M&A-driven value creation and operational synergies, (b) leverage to improving gas fundamentals and potential demand themes (e.g., WV/datacenter ecosystem), (c) targets generally imply notable upside from ~$34.
Wall Street cons: (a) commodity deck uncertainty and cash-flow sensitivity to realizations, (b) longer-dated oversupply concerns, (c) neutral-rated coverage suggests not everyone sees a clean, low-risk rerating.
Influential trading: Hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral with no significant recent trend; no recent Congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast AR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AR is 45.4 USD with a low forecast of 36 USD and a high forecast of 55 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AR is 45.4 USD with a low forecast of 36 USD and a high forecast of 55 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
11 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 34.460
Low
36
Averages
45.4
High
55
Current: 34.460
Low
36
Averages
45.4
High
55
Morgan Stanley
Overweight
downgrade
$48 -> $46
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$48 -> $46
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Antero Resources to $46 from $48 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm marked its 2026-27 oil price deck for strip as of January 7 in conjunction with its Q4 preview for the E&Ps, oil majors and Canadian producers. The firm expects "fairly clean" Q4 operational updates but lighter cash flow from price realizations, the analyst tells investors in the preview.
Barclays
Equal Weight
downgrade
$46 -> $41
2026-01-21
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$46 -> $41
2026-01-21
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Antero Resources to $41 from $46 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the exploration and production group as part of a Q4 preview. The upstream sector's cash return model "remains resilient" amid macro volatility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays see attractive opportunities in U.S. onshore. It tells investors to "tread carefully" through the near-term commodity uncertainty.
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