AR Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how AR performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AR sees a -0.35% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.91% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.07%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
AR Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
1.04B
-7.59%
5.42%
Gross Margin
10.13%
-45.54%
26.94%
Operating Margin
-1.22%
-117.09%
-77.07%
Net Margin
-0.99%
-134.02%
-83.88%
EPS
-0.07
-216.67%
-66.67%
No Data Available
AR Earnings Analysis
ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION Corporation (AR.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Drilling Time Reduction: 1. Record Drilling Efficiency: Antero Resources achieved a 22% reduction in drilling time, now averaging below 11 days per well, compared to 14 days in 2022.
Completion Stages Surge: 2. Increased Completion Stages: The company set a new quarterly record with an average of 12.1 completion stages per day, a 51% increase from the previous year.
Capital Budget Reduction: 3. Reduced Capital Expenditure: Antero reduced its drilling and completion capital budget to $650 million for 2024, a 28% decrease from 2023, while maintaining production levels.
Liquids Export Premium Increase: 4. Strong Liquids Export Premiums: The company realized an average premium of $0.22 per gallon for propane exports in Q3 2024, significantly up from $0.08 to $0.09 per gallon earlier in the year.
Cash Flow Surge Expected: 5. Significant Cash Flow Increase: Antero expects nearly $500 million of incremental cash flow in 2024 compared to 2023, driven by higher C3+ NGL prices averaging over $4 per barrel higher than in 2023.
Negative
Natural Gas Price Decline: 1. Declining Natural Gas Prices: Natural gas prices averaged just $2.10 through the first nine months of 2024, significantly impacting revenue despite strong C3+ NGL prices.
Deferred Well Completion: 2. Deferred Completion of Wells: Antero has deferred the completion of two DUC pads, originally scheduled for completion in 2024 and early 2025, due to unfavorable natural gas prices, indicating a cautious approach to capital deployment.
Peer Outspend Comparison: 3. Outspend Compared to Peers: Antero reported a small outspend year-to-date, contrasting with peers who have higher breakeven levels and unsustainable outspends, highlighting potential financial strain.
Capital Budget Reduction: 4. Reduced Capital Expenditure: The company's capital budget for 2024 was reduced to $650 million, a 28% decrease from 2023, reflecting a conservative approach amid market uncertainties.
Production Guidance Outlook: 5. Lower Production Guidance: The guidance for production in 2025 suggests a flat trajectory around 3.3 to 3.4 Bcfe per day, indicating limited growth potential in the near term.
AR FAQs
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AR Earning Call Sentiment
Antero Resources Corporation (AR) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
AR.N
3.26%Positive
The earnings call presents a mixed sentiment. Positives include strong operational efficiencies, record low well costs, and a significant increase in free cash flow due to higher NGL prices. However, concerns include competitive pressures, regulatory and supply chain challenges, and low natural gas prices impacting revenue. The lack of a clear shareholder return plan and unclear responses in the Q&A add uncertainty. Despite optimistic guidance, the absence of immediate catalysts and deferred production completions suggest a neutral stock price reaction over the next two weeks.
