Should You Buy Amentum Holdings Inc (AMTM) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
37.120
1 Day change
3.95%
52 Week Range
37.940
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY for a beginner long-term investor right now. AMTM is in a confirmed uptrend (bullish moving averages), and recent nuclear-related contract wins (EDF UK up to $730M; Netherlands $207M) reinforce a multi-year growth narrative that Wall Street is increasingly underwriting via higher targets and upgrades. Near-term, the stock is pressing into resistance (~35.7–36.2) with RSI near overbought, so it may chop around this area, but for an impatient long-term buyer the setup and catalysts justify entering now.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish: SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200 confirms a sustained uptrend. MACD histogram is positive (0.00913) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is still present but slowing near resistance. RSI_6 ~69.97 is near the upper end (close to overbought), implying limited immediate upside without consolidation. Key levels: Pivot 34.948. Support: S1 34.181 (then S2 33.706). Resistance: R1 35.716 (then R2 36.19). Pre-market ~35.65 is just under R1, so a push through 35.72–36.19 would be the next technical breakout area; failure there could mean a pullback toward ~34.95/34.18 while keeping the broader uptrend intact.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from options is strongly bullish: Put/Call OI ratio of 0.4 and put/call volume ratio of 0.04 indicate calls dominating positioning and daily trading. Options activity is unusually elevated (today volume vs 30-day avg ~452%), pointing to heightened interest and expectations of a move. Implied volatility (30D IV ~66.65) is far above historical volatility (~33.33), suggesting the market is pricing a large near-term move (often around catalysts like earnings on 2026-02-10), and that options are expensive—directionally bullish sentiment, but with “priced-in move” risk.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
9
Positive Catalysts
1) Contract momentum in nuclear: EDF UK contract up to ~$730M and Netherlands nuclear planning contract ~$207M, plus additional contract-win headlines (2026-01-22). 2) Structural tailwinds: nuclear buildout, data centers/critical infrastructure, and government space/missile defense priorities (echoed in analyst commentary). 3) Upcoming earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 (pre-market) can extend the rerating if execution/guidance holds. 4) Technical uptrend remains intact (bullish moving average stack).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Hedge fund flow is a clear near-term negative: hedge funds are reported as selling, with selling amount up ~3056% QoQ—can cap upside and increase volatility. 2) Mixed Wall Street ceiling: several major firms still sit Neutral with targets below the current price area (e.g., BofA $30 Neutral; UBS $25 Neutral), implying valuation/re-rate skepticism and potential downdraft risk if growth disappoints. 3) Near-term technical positioning is stretched: RSI near 70 and price sitting right below resistance (35.7–36.2) increases odds of consolidation/pullback before the next leg higher. 4) Options market is pricing a big move (IV >> HV), raising the bar for earnings/news to surprise positively.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4. Growth was strong: Revenue $3.925B (+77.43% YoY), Net Income $40M (+52.67% YoY), EPS $0.16 (+220% YoY). Gross margin improved to 7.54 (+17.63% YoY). Overall, the quarter shows accelerating top-line scale and improving profitability metrics, consistent with a business benefiting from large program/contract activity (though some analyst notes suggest certain growth drivers may be timing-related, which makes upcoming guidance/earnings follow-through important).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend is upward: multiple firms raised price targets and some improved stance/visibility after results and the nuclear/accelerating-markets narrative. Notable moves: Cantor raised PT to $40 (Overweight), BTIG to $35 (Buy), Truist to $34 (Buy), JPMorgan to $34 (Neutral), Morgan Stanley upgraded to Equal Weight with PT $35 (from $20), RBC to $30 (Sector Perform), BofA to $30 (Neutral). A high-profile bullish take (Citron) framed AMTM as uniquely positioned in U.S. nuclear infrastructure with significant upside, while UBS initiated Neutral with a $25 PT citing below-consensus revenue expectations and limited near-term re-rate.
Wall Street pros: expanding nuclear and space/digital infrastructure exposure, improving outlook visibility, potential margin expansion, and perceived attractive positioning versus peers. Cons: some skepticism on near-term re-rating/valuation, and parts of the Street remain below consensus on forward revenue, keeping a split between “buy” and “neutral” camps.
Wall Street analysts forecast AMTM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMTM is 34.56 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AMTM stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMTM is 34.56 USD with a low forecast of 30 USD and a high forecast of 40 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
5 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 35.710
Low
30
Averages
34.56
High
40
Current: 35.710
Low
30
Averages
34.56
High
40
BofA
Neutral
maintain
$27 -> $30
AI Analysis
2025-12-31
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$27 -> $30
AI Analysis
2025-12-31
maintain
Neutral
Reason
BofA raised the firm's price target on Amentum to $30 from $27 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm cites improved investor sentiment and the company's market premium for its nuclear exposure for the target increase. Amentum benefits from a nuclear premium, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Heading into 2026, BofA expects defense and intelligence funding to remain strong, while civilian agency funding "remains a question mark."
BTIG
Buy
maintain
$30 -> $35
2025-12-03
Reason
BTIG
Price Target
$30 -> $35
2025-12-03
maintain
Buy
Reason
BTIG raised the firm's price target on Amentum to $35 from $30 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company's legacy verticals - RDT&E, Intelligence Operations & Analysis, Homeland Security/Border Protection, Environmental Remediation, and Defense Engineering, Logistics & Modernization - generate $10B in sales with mid-to-high single digit margins and low-to-mid single digit growth, and this core foundation enables expansion into high-growth areas like Space Systems & Technologies, Critical Digital Infrastructure, and Global Nuclear Energy, which are expected to grow faster and drive overall margin expansion due to their accretive nature, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AMTM
