Should You Buy Ambarella Inc (AMBA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
AMBA is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to deploy capital immediately. The stock is still in a bearish technical structure (downtrend via moving averages) and there is no Intellectia buy-style timing signal today, while options imply elevated uncertainty (very high IV). I would HOLD and wait for a clearer trend reversal (price reclaiming key resistance/longer MAs) before committing a large long-term position.
Technical Analysis
Pre-market: $67.68 (+2.0%). Trend remains technically weak despite the pre-market bounce. Moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), which typically signals an established downtrend and makes "buy now" lower-probability for long-term entries. MACD histogram is positive (0.102) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) ~40.66 is neutral-to-soft (not oversold), meaning the stock isn’t showing a strong mean-reversion "washout" buy signal. Key levels: Pivot 67.391 (price is hovering around this pivot), Support S1 64.564 then S2 62.818; Resistance R1 70.218 then R2 71.964. A convincing long entry improves if AMBA can hold above ~67.4 and break/close above ~70.2 with follow-through. Probabilistic pattern read: near-term skew is not compelling (model indicates ~70% chance of about -1.25% next day; modestly positive over 1 week/month).
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is mixed but generally constructive following the fiscal Q3 beat/raise (11/26): multiple firms raised price targets (Rosenblatt to $115 Buy; Stifel to $100 Buy; Deutsche Bank to $80 Hold; Roth to $85 Neutral; BofA to $92 Neutral). More recently (12/16), BofA trimmed its target to $85 while maintaining Neutral, signaling tempered near-term enthusiasm.
Wall Street pros: strong edge-AI-driven revenue momentum, expanding customer base, potential longer-run robotics/autonomy opportunity, and recent quarter execution (beat/raise).
Wall Street cons: gross margin pressure, uncertain operating leverage/earnings path, and a choppy semiconductor/AI spending backdrop.
Influential/politician trading check: No recent congress trading data available. Insider trend is neutral (no significant recent insider trading trends reported).
Wall Street analysts forecast AMBA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMBA is 96.7 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast AMBA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AMBA is 96.7 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Current: 66.690
Current: 66.690
