Should You Buy Allison Transmission Holdings Inc (ALSN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
109.500
1 Day change
-1.85%
52 Week Range
119.640
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. ALSN is in a bullish uptrend, but the stock is trading around $110.95—near resistance and above most recent Wall Street price targets (except the $110 bull case). With the latest quarter showing meaningful YoY declines in revenue/EPS and options volume skewing bearish (put-heavy), the risk/reward for buying today is not attractive. A hold/avoid-new-buy stance is more appropriate until after the upcoming earnings (Feb 10) or a pullback toward support.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bullish but stretched near resistance.
- Moving averages: Bullish alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) signals an established uptrend.
- MACD: Histogram positive (0.0486) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is slowing.
- RSI(6): 69.22, near overbought territory—price is strong but vulnerable to short-term cooling.
- Levels: Pivot 109.31 (near current price 110.95). Resistance R1 112.52 then R2 114.51; supports S1 106.09 then S2 104.10. With price closer to resistance than support, immediate upside looks more limited than downside.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options sentiment is mixed-to-bearish in the very near term:
- Open Interest Put/Call = 0.84 suggests more call OI than put OI (mildly bullish positioning).
- Put/Call Volume = 2.0 shows puts dominated today’s trading (bearish/hedging tone).
- Implied Vol (30D) 32.16 vs Historical Vol 22.58: options are pricing higher-than-normal near-term movement.
- Volume is light (24 contracts) and below recent averages (5D/10D avg ~61), so the bearish volume skew is a signal but not a very high-conviction one.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
8
Positive Catalysts
- Sector/peer news flow has been supportive: Dana’s preliminary FY25 sales beat expectations (could reinforce optimism around Allison’s Dana off-highway acquisition logic and industrial demand).
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-10 (after hours) can be a catalyst if results/forward commentary re-accelerate.
- Technical trend remains bullish (strong moving-average structure), which can keep demand elevated if the broader market stays constructive.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
and RSI is elevated; upside momentum is slowing (MACD contracting).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3. Growth trends were negative YoY:
- Revenue: $693M, down 15.90% YoY
- Net income: $137M, down 31.50% YoY
- EPS: $1.63, down 28.19% YoY
- Gross margin: 47.47%, down 1.23% YoY
Overall, profitability and earnings power weakened meaningfully versus last year, which reduces the attractiveness of paying up near recent highs ahead of the next earnings report (QDEC 2025 on Feb 10).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent Street trend: mostly Neutral/Equal Weight with price targets lifted, plus one notable upgrade.
- Raymond James (2025-12-08): Upgraded to Strong Buy, PT raised to $110 (bullish view tied to the Dana off-highway acquisition creating a more balanced revenue mix).
- Citi (2025-12-11, 2025-12-19): Neutral; PT raised from $90 -> $100 -> $105 (constructive but not calling for strong outperformance).
- Wells Fargo (2025-11-13 to 2026-01-23): Equal Weight; PT raised from $85 -> $98 (improving outlook but still not a buy rating).
- JPMorgan (2025-10-30): Neutral; PT $87.
Wall Street pros: acquisition-driven mix improvement, value-based pricing, improving cash conversion themes in industrials.
Wall Street cons: muted long-term demand backdrop in medium-duty trucks; most firms remain neutral and their targets are generally below the current ~$111 price, implying limited upside from here.
Wall Street analysts forecast ALSN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALSN is 94.4 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ALSN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ALSN is 94.4 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 115 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 111.560
Low
80
Averages
94.4
High
115
Current: 111.560
Low
80
Averages
94.4
High
115
Wells Fargo
Jerry Revich
Equal Weight
maintain
$85 -> $98
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
Reason
Wells Fargo
Jerry Revich
Price Target
$85 -> $98
AI Analysis
2026-01-23
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Jerry Revich raised the firm's price target on Allison Transmission to $98 from $85 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm reiterates its positive outlook for the Machinery, Industrials & Environmental Services space heading into earnings. Wells argues the Machinery supply-driven recovery is broadening to new equipment, non-residential lead indicators are accelerating, and cash conversion is improving.
Citi
Neutral
maintain
$100 -> $105
2025-12-19
Reason
Citi
Price Target
$100 -> $105
2025-12-19
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Citi raised the firm's price target on Allison Transmission to $105 from $100 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
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