ALRM Should I Buy

ALRM is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to deploy capital immediately. The setup is technically bearish (downtrend intact with weakening momentum), options positioning is defensively skewed (heavy put open interest), and insiders have been selling aggressively. While fundamentals are stable (mid-single-digit revenue growth and improving gross margin) and Wall Street targets still imply upside to ~$56, the current risk/reward does not favor an immediate long-term entry at $49.45 pre-market. If you must act today, this is better as a HOLD than a BUY.

Price/Trend: ALRM remains in a clear downtrend with bearish moving-average stacking (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained longer-term weakness. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.235 and negatively expanding, suggesting downside momentum is increasing rather than stabilizing. RSI: RSI_6 at ~36 is near the oversold zone but still labeled neutral here—this can precede a short bounce, but it is not a confirmed reversal signal. Key levels: Pivot 50.184 (overhead). Nearest support S1 48.648 then S2 47.7. Pre-market ~49.45 is below the pivot and hovering just above first support—technically a fragile area where a breakdown could accelerate selling. Pattern-based forward bias (provided): ~60% chance of ~flat next day (-0.02%), +2.69% next week, but -2.2% next month—consistent with a weak-to-choppy tape. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.