Should You Buy Air Lease Corp (AL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
64.510
1 Day change
0.16%
52 Week Range
64.530
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. AL is trading around $64.5 pre-market, which is already very close to the latest Wall Street price target ($65) and is being influenced by the pending Sumitomo Aviation acquisition expected to close in H1 2026—this caps upside and turns the setup into more of a deal/price-convergence situation than a long-term compounding entry. If you already own it, holding makes sense into the deal/earnings timeline; if you don’t own it, the risk/reward is not attractive enough to initiate now.
Technical Analysis
Trend is mildly bullish but near-term upside looks limited at current levels. MACD histogram is above zero and expanding (positive momentum). Moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), supporting an uptrend structure. RSI(6) at ~68.8 is near the upper end of neutral (approaching overbought), suggesting the stock may be extended short-term. Price is sitting near key pivot/resistance: Pivot 64.36 with nearby resistance levels around 64.45–64.51, so breakout room is small without a fresh catalyst. Pattern-based odds provided are unfavorable near-term (higher probability of declines over next week/month).
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is call-heavy based on open interest (put/call OI ratio 0.2), which is generally bullish sentiment/positioning. However, there is effectively no options volume showing today (volume put-call ratio 0.0; total volume 0), so there is no strong real-time confirmation from active trading. Implied volatility rank/percentile are shown as 0, suggesting IV is not elevated versus history in the dataset provided, which aligns with a more “priced-in/steady” deal-driven situation rather than a high-upside volatility play.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
Deal catalyst: Acquisition by Sumitomo Aviation approved by shareholders and expected to close in the first half of 2026, providing a defined corporate-event framework.
Operational/news flow is positive: delivery of Boeing 737-8 aircraft to Air Canada under a long-term lease agreement supports fleet-placement execution and partnership strength.
Institutional flow: hedge funds are reported as buying aggressively (+662% QoQ buying amount), which can support the stock.
Fundamentals: strong YoY profit/EPS growth in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Limited upside at current price: pre-market ~$64.5 is very near Barclays’ $65 target, reducing attractive upside for a new long-term entry.
Analyst downgrade: Barclays moved to Equal Weight from Overweight and lowered target ($68 to $65), signaling capped return potential into the deal.
Insider behavior: insiders are selling (selling amount +100.59% over the last month), which is a negative sentiment signal.
Near-term pattern probabilities provided skew negative (higher chance of declines over the next week/month).
Event risk: any delay/change in deal timeline could create downside while upside remains capped near the implied takeout convergence levels.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $725.393M (+5.10% YoY), while profitability accelerated: net income $135.374M (+47.71% YoY) and EPS $1.21 (+47.56% YoY). This indicates improving earnings power versus modest top-line growth (margin/efficiency and/or portfolio economics improving). Next key date: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 (after hours), with EPS estimate 1.38.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: ratings/targets are drifting more cautious. On 2026-01-06, Barclays downgraded AL to Equal Weight from Overweight and cut the price target to $65 from $68, explicitly referencing the pending Sumitomo Aviation acquisition and expected close in H1 2026.
Wall Street pros: defined corporate-event path (deal closing), improving earnings profile, and steady leasing execution.
Wall Street cons: upside appears largely priced in near current levels, and the downgrade suggests risk/reward is no longer compelling versus alternatives, especially with insider selling.
Wall Street analysts forecast AL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AL is 65 USD with a low forecast of 65 USD and a high forecast of 65 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast AL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AL is 65 USD with a low forecast of 65 USD and a high forecast of 65 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 64.410
Low
65
Averages
65
High
65
Current: 64.410
Low
65
Averages
65
High
65
Barclays
Overweight -> Equal Weight
downgrade
$68 -> $65
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$68 -> $65
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
downgrade
Overweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays downgraded Air Lease to Equal Weight from Overweight with a price target of $65, down from $68. The company's acquisition by Sumitomo Aviation has been approved via shareholder vote and is expected to close in the first half of 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Deutsche Bank
Buy
to
Hold
downgrade
$66 -> $65
2025-09-03
Reason
Deutsche Bank
Price Target
$66 -> $65
2025-09-03
downgrade
Buy
to
Hold
Reason
Deutsche Bank downgraded Air Lease to Hold from Buy with a price target of $65, down from $66, after the company agreed to be acquired by a new Dublin-based holding company for $65 per share in cash.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for AL
