Should I Buy AGO? AGO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

87.760

1 Day change

0.77%

52 Week Range

94.220

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: options positioning is aggressively bearish (puts dominate), insiders are selling heavily, and near-term pattern-based odds skew negative for the next week/month.
Technicals are only mildly constructive (positive MACD, neutral RSI) and do not override the bearish sentiment/flow signals.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- AI Stock Picker: no signal on given stock today.
- SwingMax: No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: MACD histogram at 0.146 (above zero and expanding) suggests mild bullish momentum.
RSI(6) at ~59.7 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought, not a strong breakout signal).
Moving averages: converging MAs indicate a potential inflection/sideways-to-transition phase rather than a clear trend.
Levels: Pivot 84.778 (price 85.8 slightly above pivot); near resistance R1 86.409 then R2 87.417. Support at S1 83.147 then S2 82.139.
Short-term probabilistic pattern read: ~80% chance of a small +1.01% next day, but biased negative over the next week (-4.68%) and month (-2.6%), which is unfavorable for “buy now” urgency.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/Sentiment: Put open interest (2584) vs call open interest (747) = heavily put-skewed (bearish/defensive).
Flow today: Put/call volume ratio 21 on low total volume (22 contracts) still signals lopsided bearish interest.
Volatility: 30D IV ~29.03 vs HV ~25.96 (IV premium). IV percentile ~60 suggests options are not cheap; market is paying up for protection.
Net takeaway: Options market is leaning strongly toward downside hedging/speculation, which is a near-term negative for a buy-now entry.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Hedge funds are buying: reported buying amount up ~252% QoQ (can provide price support).
- Ongoing capital return narrative: KBW highlighted confidence in the company’s ~$500M annual repurchase goal.
- Next major catalyst: Earnings on 2026-03-02 (after hours) could reset sentiment if results/guide surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Insiders are selling: selling amount reportedly up ~9162% over the last month (strong negative signal).
- Options sentiment is extremely bearish (very high put/call ratios), indicating traders are positioned for downside.
- Recent quarter showed material YoY declines (revenue, net income, EPS), weakening the fundamental momentum.
- No supportive news flow in the past week to offset negative positioning.
- Near-term pattern-based forecast skews negative over 1 week/1 month.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $181.0M, down 26.72% YoY (contraction).
Net income: $104.0M, down 38.46% YoY (profitability decline).
EPS: 2.17, down 31.33% YoY (earnings momentum negative).
Overall: Growth trend is weakening into Q3 2025, which aligns poorly with a “buy immediately” posture.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent actions are mixed-to-positive but not unanimous:
- 2025-11-19: Keefe Bruyette (Outperform) raised PT to $108 from $105.
- 2025-11-17: UBS (Neutral) raised PT to $94 from $92.
Wall Street pros: higher price targets above the current ~$85.8 and support for buybacks.
Wall Street cons: one key firm remains Neutral; fundamentals (latest quarter) are declining, and market positioning (options/insiders) is notably bearish.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician activity provided.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast AGO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for AGO is 104 USD with a low forecast of 94 USD and a high forecast of 110 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 87.090

Low

Averages

104

High

110

Current: 87.090

Low

Averages

104

High

110

Keefe Bruyette

Tommy McJoynt

Outperform

maintain

$105 -> $108

AI Analysis

2025-11-19

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Tommy McJoynt

Price Target

$105 -> $108

AI Analysis

2025-11-19

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette analyst Tommy McJoynt raised the firm's price target on Assured Guaranty to $108 from $105 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Keefe remains confident in the company's $500M annual repurchase goal, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

UBS

Brian Meredith

Neutral

maintain

$92 -> $94

2025-11-17

Reason

UBS

Brian Meredith

Price Target

$92 -> $94

2025-11-17

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst Brian Meredith raised the firm's price target on Assured Guaranty to $94 from $92 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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AGO Should I Buy

AGO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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