
AGO Earnings
Assured Guaranty Ltd
- Overview
- Forecast
- Valuation
- Earnings
Earning Analysis
Welcome to our in-depth analysis of Assured Guaranty Ltd(AGO) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of Assured Guaranty Ltd earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.
Earnings Forecast
Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate
Surprise Analysis
FY2025Q2 | 2025-08-07 | After Hours | 1.57 | 1.01 | -35.67 | 203.91M | 281.00M | +37.80 | -3.02 | - |
FY2025Q1 | 2025-05-08 | After Hours | 3.15 | 3.18 | +0.95 | 231.70M | 345.00M | +48.90 | -1.19 | -2.39 |
FY2024Q4 | 2025-02-27 | After Hours | 1.48 | 1.27 | -14.19 | 199.56M | 156.00M | -21.83 | -5.28 | -8.12 |
FY2024Q3 | 2024-11-11 | - | 1.42 | 2.42 | +70.42 | 200.30M | 269.00M | +34.30 | +2.32 | +3.99 |
FY2024Q2 | 2024-08-07 | After Hours | 1.47 | 1.44 | -2.04 | 197.20M | 202.00M | +2.43 | -2.37 | -1.51 |
FY2024Q1 | 2024-05-07 | - | 1.41 | 1.96 | +39.01 | 199.31M | 245.00M | +22.93 | -0.71 | -0.77 |
FY2023Q4 | 2024-02-27 | - | 1.01 | 5.75 | +469.31 | 199.55M | 327.00M | +63.87 | -0.06 | +6.31 |
FY2023Q3 | 2023-11-07 | - | 1.07 | 3.42 | +219.63 | 191.09M | 403.00M | +110.89 | -1.61 | -0.21 |
FY2023Q2 | 2023-08-08 | - | 1.14 | 0.60 | -47.37 | 196.22M | 360.00M | +83.47 | -0.22 | -5.91 |
- | 2023-05-09 | - | 1.08 | 1.12 | +3.70 | - | - | - | -0.49 | -0.02 |
AGO Earnings Analysis
Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, Assured Guaranty Ltd reported performance for FY2025Q2, announced on 2025-08-07. The company achieved an EPS of 1.01, compared to analyst estimates of 1.57 by -35.67% . Revenue for the quarter reached 281.00M compared to expectations of 203.91M by 37.80% .
The stock price reacted with a -3.02% one-day change and a % five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in Assured Guaranty Ltd growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.
AGO Earnings Forecast
Looking ahead, Assured Guaranty Ltd(AGO) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q3 project quarter revenue of 178.90M and an EPS of 1.46.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been No Change by 0%, while EPS estimates have been No Change by 0%. For the upcoming Q3 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted Revise Downward by -12.01% . These revisions correlate with a -6.61% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in Assured Guaranty Ltd long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.
Estimate Revision
The chart shows the correlation between AGO's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
No Change

0.00%
In Past 3 Month
EPS Estimates for FY2025
No Change

0.00%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q3 2025
Revise Downward

-12.01%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Down

-6.61%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
--
Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:881.70M
--
EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:8.17
—
Stock Price81.89
AGO Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective
Assured Guaranty Ltd revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q2 (2025-08-07,After Hours):
EPS: 1.01 (Actual) vs.1.57 (Estimate) (-35.67%)
Revenue: 281.00M (Actual) vs. 203.91M (Estimate) (37.80%)
Price Reaction: -3.02%(1-Day), %(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-05-08,After Hours):
EPS: 3.18 (Actual) vs.3.15 (Estimate) (0.95%)
Revenue: 345.00M (Actual) vs. 231.70M (Estimate) (48.90%)
Price Reaction: -1.19%(1-Day), -2.39%(5-Day)
FY2024Q4 (2025-02-27,After Hours):
EPS: 1.27 (Actual) vs.1.48 (Estimate) (-14.19%)
Revenue: 156.00M (Actual) vs. 199.56M (Estimate) (-21.83%)
Price Reaction: -5.28%(1-Day), -8.12%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how AGO performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AGO sees a -2.11% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.61% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.22%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in JUN/2025, the stock changed -3.02% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by -3.02% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
Transcript Summary
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-08-08
The earnings call summary and Q&A session reveal a strong financial performance with record high book value and shareholder equity per share. Despite a decrease in operating income per share, the company has robust share repurchase plans and dividend returns. The Q&A provides reassurance on potential risks, such as the Thames Water exposure and Puerto Rico restructuring. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a positive stock price movement prediction.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-05-09
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance with a 62% increase in adjusted operating income per share and a significant litigation gain. The company also demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividend increases. Despite some regulatory and investment risks, the positive outlook on revenue and strategic geographic expansion suggests optimism. The Q&A section did not reveal critical negative insights. Given the market cap of approximately $4.2 billion, the stock is likely to experience a positive movement of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-03-03
The earnings call summary shows mixed signals: record high adjusted book value and equity per share, and strong share repurchase program, yet declining operating income and increased loss expenses. The Q&A reveals confidence in certain areas, but management's unclear responses on some issues raise concerns. Overall, the financial performance and shareholder returns are positive, but uncertainties in guidance and loss expenses balance the sentiment, leading to a neutral outlook.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-02-28
The earnings call reveals a significant decline in adjusted operating income and increased loss expenses, which are negative indicators. While there are positives like record high adjusted book value per share and increased dividends, these are overshadowed by the sharp drop in income and increased losses. The Q&A section highlights potential risks, such as ongoing issues with Thames Water and healthcare facilities, which further contribute to a negative sentiment. With a market cap of $4.2 billion, these factors suggest a likely negative stock price movement of -2% to -8%.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-11-12
The earnings call summary shows strong financial metrics with record high book values and stable net earned premiums. Despite a decline in adjusted operating income and net investment income, the company is executing a significant share repurchase program, which is generally positive for stock prices. The Q&A section reveals confidence in capital management and no expected significant losses. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction. Overall, the positive aspects outweigh the negatives, leading to a predicted stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-08-08
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with a 140% increase in adjusted operating income per share and record-high adjusted book value. The company has a robust share repurchase program and increased shareholder equity, indicating effective capital management. While there are risks related to Puerto Rico's Electric Power Authority and market competition, the favorable court ruling and strategic focus on share repurchases and potential acquisitions are positive. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a 'Positive' prediction (2% to 8%) for the stock price over the next two weeks.
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FAQ

What were the key highlights of AGO’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q2?
AGO reported its FY2025Q2 earnings on 2025-08-07, showcasing a revenue of 281.00M against an estimate of 203.91M, resulting in a 37.8% surprise. The EPS was 1.01, surpassing the expected 1.57 by -35.67% . The stock experienced a -3.02% price change on the earnings day and a 0% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.

How did AGO’s stock price react after the FY2025Q2 earnings release?

What are the revenue and EPS estimates for AGO for 2025/Q3?

How does AGO’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?

What should investors expect from AGO’s next earnings report?
