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AGO Earnings

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Earning Analysis

Welcome to our in-depth analysis of Assured Guaranty Ltd(AGO) earnings, offering investors a detailed look into the company’s financial performance, revenue trends, earnings per share (EPS), and market reactions. This page provides a comprehensive overview of Assured Guaranty Ltd earnings history, forecasts, and key financial metrics, empowering you with the data needed to make informed investment decisions. Whether you're tracking quarterly results, analyzing earnings surprises, or exploring future projections, our detailed breakdown covers it all.

Earnings Forecast

Revenue
EPS
Currency: USD
Actual
Estimate

Surprise Analysis

Name
EPS
Revenue
Price Reaction
Fiscal QuarterEarning DateTimeEstimateActualSurprise%EstimateActualSurprise%1D5D
Fiscal Quarter
Earning Date
Time
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
Estimate
Actual
Surprise%
1D
5D
FY2025Q32025-11-06After Hours1.462.57+76.03196.76M207.00M+5.21+6.52+7.36
FY2025Q22025-08-07After Hours1.571.01-35.67203.91M281.00M+37.80-3.02-2.29
FY2025Q12025-05-08After Hours3.153.18+0.95231.70M345.00M+48.90-1.19-2.39
FY2024Q42025-02-27After Hours1.481.27-14.19199.56M156.00M-21.83-5.28-8.12
FY2024Q32024-11-11-1.422.42+70.42200.30M269.00M+34.30+2.32+3.99
FY2024Q22024-08-07After Hours1.471.44-2.04197.20M202.00M+2.43-2.37-1.51
FY2024Q12024-05-07-1.411.96+39.01199.31M245.00M+22.93-0.71-0.77
FY2023Q42024-02-27-1.015.75+469.31199.55M327.00M+63.87-0.06+6.31
FY2023Q32023-11-07-1.073.42+219.63191.09M403.00M+110.89-1.61-0.21
FY2023Q22023-08-08-1.140.60-47.37196.22M360.00M+83.47-0.22-5.91
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AGO Earnings Analysis

Our earnings analysis provides a granular look at the company’s performance across recent fiscal quarters, highlighting key metrics such as revenue, EPS, and operating margins. By examining actual results against analyst estimates, we uncover trends and surprises that drive stock price movements, offering valuable insights for both short-term traders and long-term investors.
In the most recent quarter, Assured Guaranty Ltd reported performance for FY2025Q3, announced on 2025-11-06. The company achieved an EPS of 2.57, compared to analyst estimates of 1.46 by 76.03% . Revenue for the quarter reached 207.00M compared to expectations of 196.76M by 5.21% .
The stock price reacted with a 6.52% one-day change and a 7.36% five-day change following the earnings release. These movements reflect market reaction in Assured Guaranty Ltd growth trajectory and strategic initiatives.

AGO Earnings Forecast

Looking ahead, Assured Guaranty Ltd(AGO) remains a focal point for investors seeking growth opportunities. Analyst forecasts for 2025/Q4 project quarter revenue of 205.83M and an EPS of 1.68.
However, recent estimate revisions provide additional context. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 have been No Change by 0%, while EPS estimates have been No Change by 0%. For the upcoming Q4 2025, revenue estimates have been adjusted No Change by 0% . These revisions correlate with a 8.02% change in stock price over the same period, suggesting potential buying opportunities for investors who believe in Assured Guaranty Ltd long-term fundamentals.
The relationship between earnings forecast revisions and stock price movements is critical for investors. Positive revisions in revenue or EPS often signal strengthening fundamentals, making temporary price dips attractive entry points. Conversely, downward revisions may reflect short-term challenges.

Estimate Revision

The chart shows the correlation between AGO's stock price and earnings forecast revisions. Positive revisions in Revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock's fundamentals, making price dips potential buying opportunities.
Revenue Estimates for FY2025
No Change
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EPS Estimates for FY2025
No Change
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0.00%
In Past 3 Month
Revenue Estimates for Q4 2025
No Change
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0.00%
In Past 3 Month
Stock Price
Go Up
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+8.02%
In Past 3 Month
1Y
3Y
5Y
Annual FY 2025
Currency: USD
Currency: USD
1Y
3Y
5Y
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Revenue Estimate-Annual FY 2025:887.59M
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EPS Estimate-Annual FY 2025:7.17
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Stock Price88.77
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AGO Revenue and EPS Performance: A Historical Perspective

Assured Guaranty Ltd revenue and earnings per share (EPS) performance over recent quarters provides a clear picture of its financial health. Below is a detailed breakdown of the company’s earnings history, showcasing actual results, analyst estimates, and surprise percentages for key fiscal quarters:
FY2025Q3 (2025-11-06,After Hours):
EPS: 2.57 (Actual) vs.1.46 (Estimate) (76.03%)
Revenue: 207.00M (Actual) vs. 196.76M (Estimate) (5.21%)
Price Reaction: 6.52%(1-Day), 7.36%(5-Day)
FY2025Q2 (2025-08-07,After Hours):
EPS: 1.01 (Actual) vs.1.57 (Estimate) (-35.67%)
Revenue: 281.00M (Actual) vs. 203.91M (Estimate) (37.80%)
Price Reaction: -3.02%(1-Day), -2.29%(5-Day)
FY2025Q1 (2025-05-08,After Hours):
EPS: 3.18 (Actual) vs.3.15 (Estimate) (0.95%)
Revenue: 345.00M (Actual) vs. 231.70M (Estimate) (48.90%)
Price Reaction: -1.19%(1-Day), -2.39%(5-Day)
Earnings Reaction
The chart below shows how AGO performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, AGO sees a -2.00% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.81% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.21%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
For example, in SEP/2025, the stock changed 6.52% on the day following the earnings release and then changed by 7.96% over the next 10 days. These patterns provide investors with valuable insights into potential price movements and help inform trading strategies around earnings events.
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Transcript Summary

Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-11-07
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, record high metrics, and a robust share repurchase program, suggesting positive sentiment. The Q&A section reveals confidence in managing risks and exploring new opportunities, with analysts generally satisfied despite some unclear responses. Adjustments for potential risks are minor compared to the positive financial indicators. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to experience a positive reaction in the 2% to 8% range.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-08-08
The earnings call summary and Q&A session reveal a strong financial performance with record high book value and shareholder equity per share. Despite a decrease in operating income per share, the company has robust share repurchase plans and dividend returns. The Q&A provides reassurance on potential risks, such as the Thames Water exposure and Puerto Rico restructuring. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a positive stock price movement prediction.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2025-05-09
The earnings call summary shows strong financial performance with a 62% increase in adjusted operating income per share and a significant litigation gain. The company also demonstrated commitment to shareholder returns through share repurchases and dividend increases. Despite some regulatory and investment risks, the positive outlook on revenue and strategic geographic expansion suggests optimism. The Q&A section did not reveal critical negative insights. Given the market cap of approximately $4.2 billion, the stock is likely to experience a positive movement of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Neutral
2025-03-03
The earnings call summary shows mixed signals: record high adjusted book value and equity per share, and strong share repurchase program, yet declining operating income and increased loss expenses. The Q&A reveals confidence in certain areas, but management's unclear responses on some issues raise concerns. Overall, the financial performance and shareholder returns are positive, but uncertainties in guidance and loss expenses balance the sentiment, leading to a neutral outlook.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Negative
2025-02-28
The earnings call reveals a significant decline in adjusted operating income and increased loss expenses, which are negative indicators. While there are positives like record high adjusted book value per share and increased dividends, these are overshadowed by the sharp drop in income and increased losses. The Q&A section highlights potential risks, such as ongoing issues with Thames Water and healthcare facilities, which further contribute to a negative sentiment. With a market cap of $4.2 billion, these factors suggest a likely negative stock price movement of -2% to -8%.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-11-12
The earnings call summary shows strong financial metrics with record high book values and stable net earned premiums. Despite a decline in adjusted operating income and net investment income, the company is executing a significant share repurchase program, which is generally positive for stock prices. The Q&A section reveals confidence in capital management and no expected significant losses. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction. Overall, the positive aspects outweigh the negatives, leading to a predicted stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q2 2024 Earnings Call Summary
Positive
2024-08-08
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with a 140% increase in adjusted operating income per share and record-high adjusted book value. The company has a robust share repurchase program and increased shareholder equity, indicating effective capital management. While there are risks related to Puerto Rico's Electric Power Authority and market competition, the favorable court ruling and strategic focus on share repurchases and potential acquisitions are positive. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a 'Positive' prediction (2% to 8%) for the stock price over the next two weeks.

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FAQ

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What were the key highlights of AGO’s latest earnings report for FY2025Q3?

AGO reported its FY2025Q3 earnings on 2025-11-06, showcasing a revenue of 207.00M against an estimate of 196.76M, resulting in a 5.21% surprise. The EPS was 2.57, surpassing the expected 1.46 by 76.03% . The stock experienced a 6.52% price change on the earnings day and a 7.36% change over the next five days, reflecting market reactions to the results.
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How did AGO’s stock price react after the FY2025Q3 earnings release?

Following AGO’s FY2025Q3 earnings announcement on 2025-11-06, the stock price moved by 6.52% on the day of the release. Over the subsequent five days, it saw a 7.36% change. Historically, AGO’s stock price tends to shift by an average of -2.00% in the 10 days leading up to earnings and -0.81% in the 10 days following, providing insight into potential market.
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What are the revenue and EPS estimates for AGO for 2025/Q4?

For 2025/Q4, analysts estimate AGO’s annual revenue to reach 205.83M, while the EPS is projected at 1.68. These estimates reflect recent revisions, with revenue estimates revised Revenue No Change by 0% and EPS estimates No Change by 0% over the past three months, indicating analyst expectation in the company’s performance.
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How does AGO’s stock price correlate with earnings forecast revisions?

The correlation between AGO’s stock price and earnings forecast revisions shows that positive revisions in revenue or EPS often strengthen the stock’s fundamentals. Over the past three months, revenue estimates for FY2025 were No Change by 0%, while EPS estimates moved No Change by 0% . This trend suggests that price dips could present buying opportunities for investors.
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What should investors expect from AGO’s next earnings report?

Based on historical trends, AGO’s stock price typically moves by -2.00% in the 10 days before its earnings and -0.81% in the 10 days after. For the upcoming 2025/Q4 earnings, analysts expect an EPS of 1.68 and revenue of 205.83M.
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What is the sentiment in Assured Guaranty Ltd (AGO) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Summary?

The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, record high metrics, and a robust share repurchase program, suggesting positive sentiment. The Q&A section reveals confidence in managing risks and exploring new opportunities, with analysts generally satisfied despite some unclear responses. Adjustments for potential risks are minor compared to the positive financial indicators. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to experience a positive reaction in the 2% to 8% range.
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