Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor: fundamentals are deteriorating, Wall Street just cut targets, and there are no proprietary buy signals to override the setup.
Price is sitting right on a key pivot/support (~0.96) after a sharp -14.25% regular-session drop; downside opens quickly toward ~0.81 if 0.96 fails.
Options market is extremely high-IV but illiquid, which reads more like distress/uncertainty than confident bullish positioning.
Trend/price action: Major single-day selloff (-14.25%) with price now ~0.968, essentially on the pivot support (0.96). This is a fragile level—breakdown risk is elevated.
MACD: Histogram is positive (0.0274) but “positively contracting,” which typically signals fading bullish momentum rather than a fresh uptrend.
RSI(6): 49.38 (neutral). Not oversold, so there’s no strong mean-reversion “must-buy” technical edge.
Moving averages: Converging MAs suggest consolidation/indecision, not a clear trend.
Pattern-based forward drift: Similar candlestick analogs imply ~60% chance of -1.63% next day, with modestly positive bias over 1 week (+2.16%) and 1 month (+1.58%)—not strong enough to justify chasing now.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest: Calls 1,758 vs puts 2 → put OI is effectively nonexistent (put/call OI ratio 0), but this is skewed by very low put activity and doesn’t reliably signal bullish conviction.
Volume: Today’s total option volume is 1 contract (calls 1, puts 0) → extremely illiquid; sentiment inference is weak.
Volatility: 30D IV ~322% (IV percentile 95.2) vs historical vol ~65.9 → options pricing implies extreme uncertainty/distress conditions.
Takeaway: Options reflect uncertainty and poor liquidity more than a clean bullish bet; not a supportive “buy-now” sentiment read.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
could trigger a sharp rebound given the low share price.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
No recent news flow to explain/resolve the selloff; absence of positive catalysts increases risk of drift lower.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: 915.0M, down -2.58% YoY → top-line contraction.
Profitability: Net income 20.6M, down -148.08% YoY; EPS 0.06, down -146.15% YoY → sharp earnings deterioration.
Margins: Gross margin 9.6, down -2.44% YoY → margin compression.
Growth read: Overall trend is negative (lower revenue, materially weaker earnings, weaker margins), which does not support a “buy now” decision.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Morgan Stanley (2025-12-17): Kept Equal Weight, cut price target to $1.50 from $2.00.
Trend: Price target reduction indicates waning confidence/expectations for near-term upside.
Wall Street pros: PT above current price suggests some rebound potential.
Wall Street cons: Rating remains neutral (not a conviction Buy) and the PT cut reinforces that the Street sees meaningful business/execution risk.
Wall Street analysts forecast ADV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADV is 2 USD with a low forecast of 1.5 USD and a high forecast of 2.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast ADV stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for ADV is 2 USD with a low forecast of 1.5 USD and a high forecast of 2.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 0.733
Low
1.5
Averages
2
High
2.5
Current: 0.733
Low
1.5
Averages
2
High
2.5
Morgan Stanley
Equal Weight
downgrade
$2
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Price Target
$2
AI Analysis
2025-12-17
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley lowered the firm's price target on Advantage Solutions to $1.50 from $2 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. 2025 marked a shift in Info Services, bifurcating leaders and laggards in the group based on AI, notes the analyst, who assumes AI will continue to be an important theme in 2026 among the group.
Morgan Stanley
Greg Parrish
Equal Weight
downgrade
$2
2025-05-14
Reason
Morgan Stanley
Greg Parrish
Price Target
$2
2025-05-14
downgrade
Equal Weight
Reason
Morgan Stanley analyst Greg Parrish lowered the firm's price target on Advantage Solutions to $2 from $4.50 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Advantage missed Q1 expectations and with continued headwinds near-term, the firm sees a lack of upside catalysts in 2025 for the stock, the analyst tells investors. The firm is lowering its 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimate by 4%, the analyst noted.
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