09961 Overview

Goldman Sachs Ratings: Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating for HWORLD-S, forecasting a 4Q25 revenue increase of 8% YoY and full-year revenue growth of 6%, with EBITDA expected to reach RMB8.4 billion.

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Outlook: The broker predicts a significant 57% YoY increase in Atour Lifestyle Holdings' 4Q25 EBITDA to RMB700 million, aligning with full-year estimates of RMB2.5 billion.

TONGCHENGTRAVEL Projections: Goldman Sachs anticipates TONGCHENGTRAVEL's 4Q25 revenue to grow by 13% YoY, driven by an 18% increase in its core OTA business, slightly outperforming TRIP.COM-S.

Cautious View on CTG DUTY-FREE: While maintaining a cautious stance on CTG DUTY-FREE due to uncertain sales momentum, Goldman Sachs projects a 20% YoY revenue increase for 4Q25, following previous declines.

Market Performance: TRIP.COM-S (09961.HK) experienced a decline of 1.945%, with short selling amounting to $100.13 million and a ratio of 15.321%.

Task Force Formation: The company has established a task force to address potential changes in travel itineraries due to recent developments in Iran and the Middle East, ensuring they stay updated on the situation.

Booking Protection Initiative: TRIP.COM-S has launched a comprehensive protection plan for hotel bookings made before February 28, covering multiple Middle Eastern countries for travel dates from February 28 to March 5.

Collaboration with Merchants: The platform is working with merchants to mitigate cancellation losses for users who need to cancel their bookings due to the evolving situation in the region.

Market Performance: The HSI rose by 197 points (0.7%) to 26,578, while the HSTI and HSCEI also saw gains, closing at 5,162 and 8,849 respectively.

Active Heavyweights: Notable stocks included Tencent (+2.8%), Meituan (+2.1%), and Alibaba (+1.0%), with significant short selling activity reported for each.

Constituents on the Move: SHK PPT surged by 6.8% to a new high, along with Wuxi Bio (+4.2%) and Trip.com (+3.2%), indicating strong performance among certain constituents.

Short Selling Data: Various stocks experienced high short selling ratios, with CCB and Xiaomi showing declines, while Cathay Pacific also hit a new high with a 2.1% increase.

Lunar New Year Travel Statistics: During the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday, domestic travel traffic and industry revenue in mainland China reached 596 million and RMB803 billion, respectively, both up approximately 19% from the previous year.

Daily Growth Rates: The daily average travel traffic and industry revenue grew by 5.7% and 5.5% year-over-year, indicating strong performance in the tourism sector.

Citi Research Insights: Citi Research noted that the robust tourism performance reflects healthy momentum in both domestic and outbound tourism markets, which benefits online travel platforms.

Market Impact on Trip.com: Despite positive tourism trends, the share price of Trip.com may be influenced by an ongoing investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation, leading Citi to maintain a Buy rating on Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel.

Passenger Flow Increase: During the first seven days of the Lunar New Year holiday, China's cross-regional passenger flow reached 2.08 billion, a 9.3% year-on-year increase, indicating a rebound in domestic travel demand.

Travel Demand Trends: The surge in passenger volume was attributed to family reunions before the holiday, with a balanced demand for both long and short-haul travel benefiting online travel agencies.

Citi's Ratings: Citi maintained a Buy rating for Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel, with target prices set at USD82 and HKD28 respectively, reflecting confidence in their market performance.

Upcoming Earnings Report: Trip.com is expected to announce its fourth-quarter results soon, with analysts predicting that the stock price may remain stable until the announcement.