G Sachs Anticipates HWORLD-S 4Q25 Revenue to Exceed Expectations, Remains Cautious on CTG Duty-Free

Goldman Sachs Ratings: Goldman Sachs reiterated a Buy rating for HWORLD-S, forecasting a 4Q25 revenue increase of 8% YoY and full-year revenue growth of 6%, with EBITDA expected to reach RMB8.4 billion.

Atour Lifestyle Holdings Outlook: The broker predicts a significant 57% YoY increase in Atour Lifestyle Holdings' 4Q25 EBITDA to RMB700 million, aligning with full-year estimates of RMB2.5 billion.

TONGCHENGTRAVEL Projections: Goldman Sachs anticipates TONGCHENGTRAVEL's 4Q25 revenue to grow by 13% YoY, driven by an 18% increase in its core OTA business, slightly outperforming TRIP.COM-S.

Cautious View on CTG DUTY-FREE: While maintaining a cautious stance on CTG DUTY-FREE due to uncertain sales momentum, Goldman Sachs projects a 20% YoY revenue increase for 4Q25, following previous declines.

Emergency Support Activation: Due to the tense situation in Iran and the Middle East, Chinese travel agencies like TONGCHENGTRAVEL and Qunar have activated emergency support mechanisms to protect travelers' safety and rights.

Cancellation Policies: TONGCHENGTRAVEL allows free cancellations for hotel bookings made before February 28, 2026, for travel dates from February 28 to March 5, covering multiple Middle Eastern countries, while adhering to airline policies for flight changes and refunds.

Collaboration for User Protection: Qunar is also providing comprehensive protection for hotel bookings in 14 Middle Eastern countries and plans to collaborate with merchants to share losses for users needing to cancel.

Market Response: Despite the challenges, Citi maintains a "Buy" rating on TONGCHENGTRAVEL, anticipating strong domestic demand during the Lunar New Year.

Lunar New Year Travel Statistics: During the nine-day Lunar New Year holiday, domestic travel traffic and industry revenue in mainland China reached 596 million and RMB803 billion, respectively, both up approximately 19% from the previous year.

Daily Growth Rates: The daily average travel traffic and industry revenue grew by 5.7% and 5.5% year-over-year, indicating strong performance in the tourism sector.

Citi Research Insights: Citi Research noted that the robust tourism performance reflects healthy momentum in both domestic and outbound tourism markets, which benefits online travel platforms.

Market Impact on Trip.com: Despite positive tourism trends, the share price of Trip.com may be influenced by an ongoing investigation by the State Administration for Market Regulation, leading Citi to maintain a Buy rating on Trip.com and Tongcheng Travel.

Passenger Flow Increase: During the first seven days of the Lunar New Year holiday, China's cross-regional passenger flow reached 2.08 billion, a 9.3% year-on-year increase, indicating a rebound in domestic travel demand.

Travel Demand Trends: The surge in passenger volume was attributed to family reunions before the holiday, with a balanced demand for both long and short-haul travel benefiting online travel agencies.

Citi's Ratings: Citi maintained a Buy rating for Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel, with target prices set at USD82 and HKD28 respectively, reflecting confidence in their market performance.

Upcoming Earnings Report: Trip.com is expected to announce its fourth-quarter results soon, with analysts predicting that the stock price may remain stable until the announcement.

Travel Trends During Lunar New Year: Airline travel in mainland China is expected to increase by 38% during the peak travel period of February 18-19, 2026, compared to the previous year, with a projected 50% year-over-year rise in passengers flying at least twice during the Spring Festival holiday.

Hotel Occupancy and Pricing: Domestic hotel occupancy rates are significantly higher during the Lunar New Year, with average prices exceeding 30% above those on the eve of the Spring Festival, and some tourist cities seeing rates more than double the usual prices.

Short Selling Data: TONGCHENGTRAVEL (00780.HK) reported a short selling amount of $24.46 million, with a short selling ratio of 24.126%.

Market Outlook: Citi maintains a 'Buy' rating for Trip.com Group, noting a 4% year-over-year increase in passenger throughput during the first 17 days of the Spring Festival travel rush.

Passenger Throughput Growth: The Ministry of Transport reported a 4% year-on-year increase in nationwide passenger throughput during the first 17 days of the Spring Festival travel rush, with notable growth in all transport sectors: railway (2.8%), airline (5.2%), roadway (4%), and waterway (18.4%).

Strong Holiday Performance: In the first four days of the nine-day Spring Festival holiday, total passenger volume surged by 6.8% year-on-year, with significant increases in railway (3.5%), airline (7.7%), roadway (6.8%), and waterway (26.9%) transport.

Market Outlook: Citi Research highlighted an optimistic outlook for the Chinese market, maintaining a "Buy" rating for Trip.com Group and Tongcheng Travel, with target prices set at US$82 and $28, respectively.

Short Selling Data: As of February 16, 2026, Trip.com Group experienced short selling of $17.31 million, with a short selling ratio of 31.367%.