01972 Overview

SWIRE PACIFIC A Annual Results: The company reported a 19% increase in its final dividend to $2.5, resulting in a total dividend of $3.8 for FY2025, which is a 13% YoY increase.

Market Speculation: Goldman Sachs noted that the dividend increase may be influenced by the completion of a $6 billion share buyback plan in May 2025, with no further buybacks anticipated.

Management Outlook: During the earnings briefing, management expressed cautious optimism about the performance of its three core divisions despite macroeconomic uncertainties.

SWIREPROPERTIES Growth: The company is developing five new rental projects in mainland China, expecting an 11% CAGR in earnings contribution, leading Goldman Sachs to raise its target price for SWIRE PACIFIC A and maintain a Buy rating for both companies.

FY2025 Financial Performance: SWIREPROPERTIES reported a net loss of $1.5 billion for FY2025, primarily due to a $7.8 billion revaluation loss in its Hong Kong office portfolio, despite a healthy recovery in rental income and solid residential sales.

Broker Ratings and Target Price: Goldman Sachs rated SWIREPROPERTIES as a Buy, increasing its target price from $29 to $30, while Citi also raised its target price to $28.8, maintaining a Buy rating.

Recurring Profit Analysis: Excluding the significant revaluation loss and gains from property sales, the company's recurring underlying profit fell 3% year-over-year to $6.26 billion, aligning with broker expectations.

Market Activity: The company experienced short selling of $6.97 million, with a short selling ratio of 16.650%, indicating some market skepticism despite the positive broker ratings.

Company Performance: SWIREPROPERTIES reported a 27% year-on-year growth in underlying profit, with a full-year dividend per share increase of 5% to HKD1.15, aligning with broker estimates.

Investment Outlook: The company's HKD100 billion investment plan is entering a productive phase, which is expected to drive recurring profit growth and support sustainable dividend increases in the future.

Earnings Forecast Adjustment: CLSA raised its earnings forecasts for SWIREPROPERTIES for FY26 and FY27 by 11.2% and 0.4%, respectively, and increased the target price from HKD22.2 to HKD26 while maintaining an Outperform rating.

Market Activity: The short selling activity for SWIREPROPERTIES was reported at $6.26 million, with a short selling ratio of 10.098%.

Citi Research's Outlook on SWIREPROPERTIES: Citi Research maintains a Buy rating for SWIREPROPERTIES, citing strong same-store sales growth in mainland China's retail sector and positive rental reversion as key factors for mid-single-digit DPS growth.

Investment and Growth Projections: The report highlights a projected 27% and 40% year-on-year increase in gross floor area (GFA) for new investment properties in 2026-2027, alongside a strong balance sheet with a 15% gearing ratio, supporting a $100 billion strategic investment plan.

Target Price Adjustment: Citi raised its target price for SWIREPROPERTIES from $23.8 to $28.8, indicating a 45% discount to net asset value (NAV), reflecting confidence in the company's future earnings growth driven by moderate rental increases.

Market Context: The report also notes that the ongoing Middle East conflict may drive capital and talent into Hong Kong, potentially boosting demand for residential and office properties, further benefiting SWIREPROPERTIES.

SWIRE PACIFIC Performance: SWIRE PACIFIC reported a 11% year-on-year increase in recurring profit to $5 billion for 2H25, exceeding expectations, with a final dividend per share of $2.5, up 19% YoY.

Broker Forecasts: CLSA raised its recurring profit forecasts for SWIRE PACIFIC for 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 7% respectively, and increased its target price from $74 to $91, maintaining an Outperform rating.

SWIREPROPERTIES and CATHAY PAC AIR: CLSA noted favorable conditions for profit growth in SWIREPROPERTIES and highlighted risks related to fuel costs for CATHAY PAC AIR, which is currently rated as Underperform.

Short Selling Data: As of March 12, 2026, SWIRE PACIFIC had a short selling ratio of 26.489%, while CATHAY PAC AIR had a higher ratio of 30.801%.

BofA Securities Rating: BofA Securities has maintained a Buy rating for SWIREPROPERTIES (01972.HK) with a target price of HKD29, citing stable earnings growth and attractive valuation levels.

Earnings and Valuation: The company's recurring earnings for 2025 are in line with expectations, supported by strong new shopping mall project reserves and a 41% discount to net asset value, along with an expected dividend yield of 4.9% for the current year.

Market Conditions: Ongoing conflicts in the Middle East may impact Hong Kong's office leasing market, but reduced outflow of high-end retail consumption from China could mitigate some negative effects.

Short Selling Data: As of March 12, 2026, short selling for SWIREPROPERTIES was reported at $6.26M with a ratio of 5.173%.