HSBC Research Raises Target Price for SWIRE PACIFIC A (00019.HK) to $98.2, Maintains Buy Rating
Business Outlook for SWIRE PACIFIC: The business outlook for SWIRE PACIFIC A is improving, driven by better earnings prospects for its subsidiaries, SWIREPROPERTIES and CATHAY PAC AIR, as noted in a report by HSBC Global Research.
Earnings Forecasts: HSBC Global Research has raised its earnings forecasts for SWIRE PACIFIC for 2025-2027 by 2.9% to 8.5%, while maintaining its dividend per share forecasts at $3.55, $3.7, and $3.8 for the respective years.
NAV and Target Price Adjustments: The broker increased its net asset value (NAV) forecast by 29.2% and raised the target price for SWIRE PACIFIC from $76 to $98.2, while keeping the target holding company discount at 36%.
Investment Rating: HSBC maintained a "Buy" rating for SWIRE PACIFIC, reflecting confidence in the company's growth and dividend payment policy amidst the anticipated expansion of its commercial portfolio.
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Market Performance: The HSI closed down 251 points (1%) at 25,465, with significant declines in major stocks like HSBC and Standard Chartered, both dropping over 5%.
Inflation and Economic Indicators: China's inflation rate for February rose to 1.0%, while the M2 money supply remained unchanged at 9% year-on-year.
Commodity and Airline Stocks: CNOOC saw a 2.3% increase amid rising oil prices, while airline stocks like China Southern Airlines and Air China fell over 4%.
Tech Stock Movements: Major tech companies like Tencent and Alibaba experienced slight gains, while others like Meituan and Kuaishou saw declines of around 1-1.7%.

Market Performance: The HSI closed down 123 points (0.5%) at 25,593, with significant declines in major financial stocks like HSBC and Standard Chartered, while the total market turnover reached HKD126.059 billion.
Sector Movements: Oil stocks like PetroChina and CNOOC saw gains due to rising oil prices, while gold stocks and airlines experienced declines amid fluctuating market conditions.
Corporate Developments: Swire Group plans to raise HKD1.79 billion by selling a stake in Cathay Pacific, which saw a drop in its stock price, while Swire Pacific A's stock rose after announcing an increased dividend.
Tech Stock Trends: Major tech companies like Tencent and Alibaba saw slight increases, while others like Meituan and Kuaishou experienced minor declines, reflecting mixed performance in the tech sector.

SWIRE PACIFIC A Annual Results: The company reported a 19% increase in its final dividend to $2.5, resulting in a total dividend of $3.8 for FY2025, which is a 13% YoY increase.
Market Speculation: Goldman Sachs noted that the dividend increase may be influenced by the completion of a $6 billion share buyback plan in May 2025, with no further buybacks anticipated.
Management Outlook: During the earnings briefing, management expressed cautious optimism about the performance of its three core divisions despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
SWIREPROPERTIES Growth: The company is developing five new rental projects in mainland China, expecting an 11% CAGR in earnings contribution, leading Goldman Sachs to raise its target price for SWIRE PACIFIC A and maintain a Buy rating for both companies.

Market Performance: The Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 123 points (0.5%) to 25,593, while the Hang Seng Tech Index (HSTI) and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) also experienced declines.
Active Heavyweights: Notable stocks like Alibaba and Tencent saw slight increases, with Alibaba closing at $133.6 (up 1.5%) and Tencent at $552.5 (up 1.1%), while other heavyweights like HSBC and MTR Corporation faced significant declines.
Top Gainers and Losers: Bright Smart surged by 37.6% to $9.52, while DeepExi Tech dropped by 24.4% to $52.8, highlighting the volatility in smaller stocks.
Short Selling Trends: High short selling ratios were observed across various stocks, with MTR Corporation and Xinyi Glass showing particularly high ratios, indicating bearish sentiment among investors.

SWIRE PACIFIC Performance: SWIRE PACIFIC reported a 11% year-on-year increase in recurring profit to $5 billion for 2H25, exceeding expectations, with a final dividend per share of $2.5, up 19% YoY.
Broker Forecasts: CLSA raised its recurring profit forecasts for SWIRE PACIFIC for 2026 and 2027 by 8% and 7% respectively, and increased its target price from $74 to $91, maintaining an Outperform rating.
SWIREPROPERTIES and CATHAY PAC AIR: CLSA noted favorable conditions for profit growth in SWIREPROPERTIES and highlighted risks related to fuel costs for CATHAY PAC AIR, which is currently rated as Underperform.
Short Selling Data: As of March 12, 2026, SWIRE PACIFIC had a short selling ratio of 26.489%, while CATHAY PAC AIR had a higher ratio of 30.801%.

SWIRE PACIFIC A Share Placement: SWIRE PACIFIC A announced a placement of 153 million shares of CATHAY PAC AIR at $11.74 per share, a 9.6% discount to the previous closing price, aiming to adjust its stake in the airline.
Financial Impact: The placement will result in net proceeds of $1.789 billion for SWIRE PACIFIC A and a disposal gain of $365 million, with the completion expected by March 17.
Market Reactions: CLSA's report indicates that the placement price reflects a projected PB ratio of 1.2x for 2027, which may be viewed negatively by the market.
Short Selling Data: As of March 12, short selling for SWIRE PACIFIC A was $45.19 million with a ratio of 26.489%, while CATHAY PAC AIR had short selling of $77.13 million and a ratio of 30.801%.





