Wells Fargo Sees Rebound Potential in Heavily Shorted Stocks, Herc Target Price Implies 27% Upside
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 06 2026
0mins
Should l Buy HRI?
Source: CNBC
- Market Rebound Expectations: Wells Fargo anticipates a market 'reflation' and short squeeze driven by tax refunds averaging $800 per person, which will propel stock prices higher, particularly for lagging stocks with significant short positions.
- Herc Holdings Outlook: Herc Holdings has declined 15% over the past year, yet KeyBanc upgraded its rating to overweight with a $200 price target, implying a 27% upside, reflecting confidence that initial integration challenges post-HEES deal are largely resolved.
- Cost Synergy Goals: Herc aims to achieve approximately $125 million in targeted cost synergies by the end of FY26, with analysts believing that a stabilized salesforce will allow the company to focus on this goal, thereby enhancing profitability.
- Vera Therapeutics Potential: Wells Fargo highlights Vera Therapeutics, projecting that its lead drug atacicept will excel in a multibillion-dollar market, expected to outperform consensus and alleviate concerns regarding competitive risks.
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Analyst Views on HRI
Wall Street analysts forecast HRI stock price to rise
7 Analyst Rating
5 Buy
1 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 150.120
Low
150.00
Averages
175.00
High
200.00
Current: 150.120
Low
150.00
Averages
175.00
High
200.00
About HRI
Herc Holdings Inc. is an equipment rental supplier. It operates through subsidiaries, including Herc Rentals Inc. In addition to its principal business of equipment rental, it sells used equipment and contractor supplies, such as construction consumables, tools, small equipment and safety supplies; provides repair, maintenance, equipment management services and safety training to certain of its customers; offer equipment re-rental services and provides on-site support to its customers; and provide ancillary services, such as equipment transport, rental protection, cleaning, refueling and labor. Its classic fleet includes aerial, earthmoving, material handling, trucks and trailers, air compressors, compaction, and lighting equipment. Its ProSolutions offering includes industry-specific, solutions-based services in tandem with power generation, climate control, remediation and restoration, pumps, and trench shorting equipment as well as its ProContractor professional grade tools.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Herc Holdings Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
- Acquisition Integration Progress: Herc Holdings completed the largest acquisition in industry history in 2025, with CEO Lawrence Silber noting that 80% of branch optimization is finished, expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the market.
- Strong Financial Performance: Equipment rental revenue increased approximately 24% year-over-year in Q4, with adjusted EBITDA rising 19%, driven by the H&E acquisition and strong specialty solutions sales, indicating sustained profitability improvements.
- Future Growth Outlook: CFO Humphrey projected rental revenue growth of 13% to 17% for 2026, alongside expected cost synergies of $125 million, reflecting the company's confidence in future performance and effective strategic planning.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans to invest approximately $950 million in gross CapEx at the midpoint for 2026, with lower disposal levels leading to an estimated net CapEx of $650 million, further supporting business expansion and market share growth.
See More
Herc Holdings Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Performance: Herc Holdings reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $2.07, exceeding expectations by $0.20, indicating strong profitability despite overall revenue falling short of projections.
- Revenue Growth Drivers: The company achieved $1.21 billion in revenue for Q4, a 27.2% year-over-year increase primarily driven by a 24% rise in equipment rental revenue, although sales missed expectations, highlighting market demand volatility.
- Declining Utilization Rates: Dollar utilization in Q4 was 37.5%, down from 40.6% in the prior year, primarily due to lower utilization of the acquired fleet, reflecting challenges in optimizing the asset mix.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Herc anticipates 2026 equipment rental revenue between $4.275 billion and $4.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion, demonstrating confidence in future growth despite ongoing capital expenditure considerations.
See More
Herc Holdings Reports 2025 Financial Results and Strategic Outlook
- Successful Acquisition Integration: Herc Holdings completed the largest acquisition in the industry in 2025, successfully integrating two high-quality equipment rental operators, which is expected to create significant long-term strategic and financial value, enhancing market competitiveness.
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, the company's equipment rental revenue reached approximately $4.376 billion, a significant increase from $3.568 billion in 2024, demonstrating robust performance and growth potential in the market.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: The company anticipates 2026 equipment rental revenue to range between $4.275 billion and $4.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $2 billion to $2.1 billion, indicating continued leverage of scale-driven benefits and industry-leading technology for above-market growth.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Herc Holdings plans to allocate $500 million to $800 million for net rental equipment capital expenditures in 2026, further solidifying its market leadership through investments in new equipment and optimization of existing assets.
See More
Herc Holdings Reports Strong 2025 Financial Results Amid Major Acquisition
- Significant Revenue Growth: In 2025, equipment rental revenue reached $3.77 billion, an 18% increase, while total revenues hit $4.376 billion, up 23%, demonstrating the company's strong performance amid industry consolidation and enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Net Income Fluctuations: Despite a net income of $24 million and earnings per share of $0.72 in Q4, the full-year net income was only $1 million, primarily impacted by H&E acquisition transaction costs, reflecting financial pressures during the integration process.
- Strong EBITDA Performance: The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $1.818 billion, a 15% increase, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 41.5%, although the margin decreased due to acquisition-related costs, it still indicates improved operational efficiency.
- Robust Cash Flow: Free cash flow stood at $299 million, with adjusted free cash flow at $521 million, indicating effective capital management and providing ample funding for future investments and acquisitions.
See More
Herc Holdings to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 17
- Earnings Announcement Date: Herc Holdings is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 17 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.87, reflecting a significant 47.8% year-over-year decline, which may dampen investor sentiment.
- Revenue Expectations: The projected revenue for Q4 stands at $1.25 billion, representing a 31.4% year-over-year increase; however, this strong growth contrasts sharply with the steep decline in EPS, potentially affecting overall market performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Herc has only beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time while exceeding revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a relatively stable revenue performance but challenges in profitability.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and three downward revisions, while revenue estimates saw two upward revisions, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future profitability.
See More
GAMCO Investors Sells Shares of Herc Holdings Amid Strong Revenue Growth
- Share Sale Details: GAMCO Investors reported selling 34,492 shares of Herc Holdings in a fourth-quarter SEC filing, with an estimated trade value of $4.73 million, reflecting a more than 25% increase in the company's stock price during the period.
- Value Change: Despite the sale, the value of Herc Holdings' stake increased by $29.81 million, indicating strong performance in infrastructure spending and the equipment rental market.
- Financial Performance Highlights: Herc Holdings saw a 30% year-over-year increase in equipment rental revenue to $1.12 billion, pushing total revenue up 35% to $1.30 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 24%, despite margin compression due to acquisition integration costs.
- Investor Confidence: The share sale appears to be more of a portfolio housekeeping move rather than a reduction in confidence in Herc Holdings, as the company continues to benefit from infrastructure demand and operational scale, despite a notable 15% decline in stock price over the past year.
See More
Herc Holdings Q4 2025 Earnings Call Highlights
- Acquisition Integration Progress: Herc Holdings completed the largest acquisition in industry history in 2025, with CEO Lawrence Silber noting that 80% of branch optimization is finished, expected to enhance the company's competitive position in the market.
- Strong Financial Performance: Equipment rental revenue increased approximately 24% year-over-year in Q4, with adjusted EBITDA rising 19%, driven by the H&E acquisition and strong specialty solutions sales, indicating sustained profitability improvements.
- Future Growth Outlook: CFO Humphrey projected rental revenue growth of 13% to 17% for 2026, alongside expected cost synergies of $125 million, reflecting the company's confidence in future performance and effective strategic planning.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: The company plans to invest approximately $950 million in gross CapEx at the midpoint for 2026, with lower disposal levels leading to an estimated net CapEx of $650 million, further supporting business expansion and market share growth.
See More
Herc Holdings Q4 Earnings Beat Expectations
- Earnings Performance: Herc Holdings reported a Q4 non-GAAP EPS of $2.07, exceeding expectations by $0.20, indicating strong profitability despite overall revenue falling short of projections.
- Revenue Growth Drivers: The company achieved $1.21 billion in revenue for Q4, a 27.2% year-over-year increase primarily driven by a 24% rise in equipment rental revenue, although sales missed expectations, highlighting market demand volatility.
- Declining Utilization Rates: Dollar utilization in Q4 was 37.5%, down from 40.6% in the prior year, primarily due to lower utilization of the acquired fleet, reflecting challenges in optimizing the asset mix.
- Optimistic Future Outlook: Herc anticipates 2026 equipment rental revenue between $4.275 billion and $4.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $2.0 billion to $2.1 billion, demonstrating confidence in future growth despite ongoing capital expenditure considerations.
See More
Herc Holdings Reports 2025 Financial Results and Strategic Outlook
- Successful Acquisition Integration: Herc Holdings completed the largest acquisition in the industry in 2025, successfully integrating two high-quality equipment rental operators, which is expected to create significant long-term strategic and financial value, enhancing market competitiveness.
- Strong Financial Performance: In 2025, the company's equipment rental revenue reached approximately $4.376 billion, a significant increase from $3.568 billion in 2024, demonstrating robust performance and growth potential in the market.
- Optimistic 2026 Outlook: The company anticipates 2026 equipment rental revenue to range between $4.275 billion and $4.4 billion, with adjusted EBITDA projected at $2 billion to $2.1 billion, indicating continued leverage of scale-driven benefits and industry-leading technology for above-market growth.
- Capital Expenditure Plans: Herc Holdings plans to allocate $500 million to $800 million for net rental equipment capital expenditures in 2026, further solidifying its market leadership through investments in new equipment and optimization of existing assets.
See More
Herc Holdings Reports Strong 2025 Financial Results Amid Major Acquisition
- Significant Revenue Growth: In 2025, equipment rental revenue reached $3.77 billion, an 18% increase, while total revenues hit $4.376 billion, up 23%, demonstrating the company's strong performance amid industry consolidation and enhancing its market competitiveness.
- Net Income Fluctuations: Despite a net income of $24 million and earnings per share of $0.72 in Q4, the full-year net income was only $1 million, primarily impacted by H&E acquisition transaction costs, reflecting financial pressures during the integration process.
- Strong EBITDA Performance: The adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $1.818 billion, a 15% increase, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 41.5%, although the margin decreased due to acquisition-related costs, it still indicates improved operational efficiency.
- Robust Cash Flow: Free cash flow stood at $299 million, with adjusted free cash flow at $521 million, indicating effective capital management and providing ample funding for future investments and acquisitions.
See More
Herc Holdings to Announce Q4 Earnings on February 17
- Earnings Announcement Date: Herc Holdings is set to announce its Q4 earnings on February 17 before market open, with a consensus EPS estimate of $1.87, reflecting a significant 47.8% year-over-year decline, which may dampen investor sentiment.
- Revenue Expectations: The projected revenue for Q4 stands at $1.25 billion, representing a 31.4% year-over-year increase; however, this strong growth contrasts sharply with the steep decline in EPS, potentially affecting overall market performance.
- Historical Performance Review: Over the past two years, Herc has only beaten EPS estimates 25% of the time while exceeding revenue estimates 75% of the time, indicating a relatively stable revenue performance but challenges in profitability.
- Estimate Revision Dynamics: In the last three months, there have been no upward revisions to EPS estimates and three downward revisions, while revenue estimates saw two upward revisions, reflecting a cautious market outlook on the company's future profitability.
See More
GAMCO Investors Sells Shares of Herc Holdings Amid Strong Revenue Growth
- Share Sale Details: GAMCO Investors reported selling 34,492 shares of Herc Holdings in a fourth-quarter SEC filing, with an estimated trade value of $4.73 million, reflecting a more than 25% increase in the company's stock price during the period.
- Value Change: Despite the sale, the value of Herc Holdings' stake increased by $29.81 million, indicating strong performance in infrastructure spending and the equipment rental market.
- Financial Performance Highlights: Herc Holdings saw a 30% year-over-year increase in equipment rental revenue to $1.12 billion, pushing total revenue up 35% to $1.30 billion, while adjusted EBITDA rose 24%, despite margin compression due to acquisition integration costs.
- Investor Confidence: The share sale appears to be more of a portfolio housekeeping move rather than a reduction in confidence in Herc Holdings, as the company continues to benefit from infrastructure demand and operational scale, despite a notable 15% decline in stock price over the past year.
See More
