Weak U.S. gasoline demand could bolster case for OPEC+ to extend supply cuts
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: May 31 2024
0mins
Should l Buy FLNC?
Source: SeekingAlpha
Crude Oil Futures and OPEC+ Meeting:
- Crude oil futures fell for the day and week ahead of the OPEC+ meeting.
- OPEC+ is expected to keep production cuts in place after Q2.
- The market anticipates a three-month extension of the cuts.
- Saudi Arabia called some OPEC+ oil ministers to Riyadh before the meeting.
- OPEC+ members are considering extending production cuts through 2025.
Gasoline Market Weakness:
- U.S. gasoline demand dropped by ~2% last week.
- Refiners increased run rates, leading to a rise in gasoline inventories.
- Gasoline futures hit a three-month low due to weaker refining margins.
- Analysts suggest weak refined product markets could impact the entire energy complex.
- Rising oil inventories strengthened the case for OPEC+ to extend production cuts.
Energy Sector Performance:
- The Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF finished the week with a 2% gain.
- Top gainers in energy and natural resources included Meta Materials and Critical Metals.
- Top decliners in the sector were Foremost Lithium Resource and Atlas Lithium among others.
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Analyst Views on FLNC
Wall Street analysts forecast FLNC stock price to rise
18 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
12 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 13.020
Low
8.00
Averages
16.25
High
26.00
Current: 13.020
Low
8.00
Averages
16.25
High
26.00
About FLNC
Fluence Energy, Inc. is a global provider of energy storage products and services, and optimization software for renewables and storage. With a presence in 47 markets globally, the Company provides an ecosystem of offerings to drive the clean energy transition, including modular, scalable energy storage products, comprehensive service offerings, and artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled optimization software for managing and optimizing renewables and storage from any provider. Its offerings include energy storage products and solutions, delivery services, recurring O&M services, and digital applications and solutions for energy storage and other power assets. Its energy storage solutions include Gridstack Pro, Gridstack, Sunstack, Edgestack, and Ultrastack. In addition, each of its energy storage solutions comes with its proprietary energy management system, Fluence OS. The Company’s cloud-based software products include Fluence Mosaic and Fluence Nispera.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Earnings Season Review for Renewable Energy Stocks
- Fluence Energy Earnings: Fluence Energy reported revenues of $475.2 million, reflecting a 154% year-over-year increase, yet it fell short of analysts' expectations, resulting in a 39.2% decline in stock price since the earnings report, indicating market dissatisfaction with its performance.
- Sunrun's Strong Performance: Sunrun reported revenues of $1.16 billion, up 124% year-over-year, exceeding analysts' expectations by 92.3%, and added 27,773 customers to reach a total of 1.17 million, but its stock also fell 39.2%, highlighting complex market sentiments.
- Generac's Disappointing Results: Generac reported revenues of $1.09 billion, down 11.6% year-over-year, missing analysts' expectations, yet its stock rose 11.3%, suggesting some market confidence in its future potential despite the poor earnings.
- American Superconductor's Strong Growth: American Superconductor reported revenues of $74.53 million, a 21.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' expectations by 8%, with a 10.5% rise in stock price, indicating its competitive strength and growth potential in the market.
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- Transaction Overview: Fluence Energy Director Harald von Heynitz sold 10,000 shares of Class A Common Stock on March 18, 2026, for approximately $165,000, highlighting his significant stake in the company.
- Tax-Related Sale: The sale was executed to cover tax obligations arising from the full vesting of restricted stock units (RSUs), indicating that this transaction is not a negative signal regarding the company's outlook.
- Change in Holdings: Following the sale, von Heynitz's direct holdings decreased from 73,550 to 63,550 shares, with the 10,000 shares sold representing 13.60% of his direct stake, reflecting his continued confidence in the company.
- Strong Company Performance: Fluence Energy reported a 154% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2026, reaching approximately $475 million, supported by a $5.5 billion backlog, demonstrating robust demand and future growth potential in the renewable energy storage market.
See More
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- Rating Impact: Fluence's shares fell 6.6% in the afternoon session after Needham initiated coverage with a 'Hold' rating, reflecting market caution regarding the company's future growth prospects.
- Increased Competition: While demand for battery energy storage systems remains strong, analysts noted that the expected increase in U.S. supply over the next one to two years could diminish Fluence's early-mover advantage, thereby raising execution risks.
- High Stock Volatility: Fluence's stock has experienced 85 moves greater than 5% in the past year, indicating the market's sensitivity to news about the company, although this has not fundamentally altered perceptions of its business.
- Declining Investment Returns: Since its IPO in October 2021, Fluence's stock has dropped 34.8%, meaning that an investment of $1,000 at the IPO is now worth only $428.69, highlighting significant losses for investors.
See More
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- Declining Coal Generation Share: Coal once generated over 50% of U.S. electricity but now accounts for only 17%, with projections suggesting it could drop to 7% by 2035, indicating a significant reduction in coal's role in the U.S. energy economy, which alters investor perspectives on the energy market.
- Replacement of Aging Facilities: Much of the U.S. coal fleet is decades old, and utilities are finding it cheaper to replace these aging plants than to keep them operational, accelerating coal retirements and diminishing its market value.
- Rise of Renewable Energy: Solar and wind have become low-cost sources of new electricity generation in the U.S., and when combined with battery storage systems, they can provide power during peak demand, undermining coal's traditional role as a baseload power source and hastening its retirement.
- Falling Battery Storage Costs: According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the global benchmark cost for a four-hour battery project fell to $78 per megawatt-hour in 2025, a 27% decrease year-on-year, indicating that as battery storage becomes more affordable, coal's competitiveness in the modern energy economy will further decline.
See More
Structural Shift in the Coal Industry
- Declining Coal Market Share: Coal once generated over 50% of U.S. electricity but now accounts for only 17%, with projections suggesting it could drop to 7% by 2035, indicating a rapid erosion of coal's role in the energy economy and altering investor perspectives on the energy market.
- Rise of Battery Storage Technology: The cost of battery storage systems has plummeted, with the global benchmark for a four-hour battery project falling to $78 per megawatt-hour, a 27% year-on-year decrease, enabling solar plus storage to compete directly with existing coal plants in some regions, accelerating retirements.
- Economic Viability of Renewables: The abundance of natural gas and the cost advantages of renewables have significantly diminished coal's competitiveness, particularly as solar and wind have become some of the lowest-cost sources of new electricity generation in the U.S., prompting utilities to replace aging coal facilities.
- Shift in Investment Opportunities: As coal's market value declines, investors should focus on modern energy technologies like solar, wind, and battery storage systems, which are expected to yield significant wealth creation opportunities, especially as the coal industry faces obsolescence.
See More
AI Sparks Potential Blue-Collar Renaissance Amid Job Disruption Fears
- Blue-Collar Employment Revival: Oppenheimer analysts suggest that while AI may rapidly displace white-collar jobs, it could simultaneously drive demand for blue-collar roles, particularly in manufacturing, with employment projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels by 2026.
- Investment Theme Analysis: Oppenheimer outlined five investable themes, including the physical-to-digital connection, emphasizing the value of sensors and data pipelines, with companies in this space expected to benefit from automation trends, including Aeva Technologies and Tesla.
- Automation Tools Opportunity: The analysts identified automation tools that can reskill transitioning workforces, recommending companies like Caterpillar and Rockwell Automation, which enhance worksite experiences through task automation and AI agents.
- Autonomous Systems Development: Oppenheimer also highlighted companies supporting autonomous physical systems, such as Mobileye Global and Aurora Innovation, noting that as fully autonomous solutions are commercialized, human roles will still be essential for remote monitoring and maintenance to ensure safety and problem resolution.
See More
Earnings Season Review for Renewable Energy Stocks
- Fluence Energy Earnings: Fluence Energy reported revenues of $475.2 million, reflecting a 154% year-over-year increase, yet it fell short of analysts' expectations, resulting in a 39.2% decline in stock price since the earnings report, indicating market dissatisfaction with its performance.
- Sunrun's Strong Performance: Sunrun reported revenues of $1.16 billion, up 124% year-over-year, exceeding analysts' expectations by 92.3%, and added 27,773 customers to reach a total of 1.17 million, but its stock also fell 39.2%, highlighting complex market sentiments.
- Generac's Disappointing Results: Generac reported revenues of $1.09 billion, down 11.6% year-over-year, missing analysts' expectations, yet its stock rose 11.3%, suggesting some market confidence in its future potential despite the poor earnings.
- American Superconductor's Strong Growth: American Superconductor reported revenues of $74.53 million, a 21.4% year-over-year increase, surpassing analysts' expectations by 8%, with a 10.5% rise in stock price, indicating its competitive strength and growth potential in the market.
See More
Fluence Energy Director Sells Shares Amid Strong Growth
- Transaction Overview: Fluence Energy Director Harald von Heynitz sold 10,000 shares of Class A Common Stock on March 18, 2026, for approximately $165,000, highlighting his significant stake in the company.
- Tax-Related Sale: The sale was executed to cover tax obligations arising from the full vesting of restricted stock units (RSUs), indicating that this transaction is not a negative signal regarding the company's outlook.
- Change in Holdings: Following the sale, von Heynitz's direct holdings decreased from 73,550 to 63,550 shares, with the 10,000 shares sold representing 13.60% of his direct stake, reflecting his continued confidence in the company.
- Strong Company Performance: Fluence Energy reported a 154% year-over-year revenue increase in Q1 2026, reaching approximately $475 million, supported by a $5.5 billion backlog, demonstrating robust demand and future growth potential in the renewable energy storage market.
See More
Fluence Shares Drop 6.6% After Needham Initiates Hold Rating
- Rating Impact: Fluence's shares fell 6.6% in the afternoon session after Needham initiated coverage with a 'Hold' rating, reflecting market caution regarding the company's future growth prospects.
- Increased Competition: While demand for battery energy storage systems remains strong, analysts noted that the expected increase in U.S. supply over the next one to two years could diminish Fluence's early-mover advantage, thereby raising execution risks.
- High Stock Volatility: Fluence's stock has experienced 85 moves greater than 5% in the past year, indicating the market's sensitivity to news about the company, although this has not fundamentally altered perceptions of its business.
- Declining Investment Returns: Since its IPO in October 2021, Fluence's stock has dropped 34.8%, meaning that an investment of $1,000 at the IPO is now worth only $428.69, highlighting significant losses for investors.
See More
Structural Shift in the Coal Industry
- Declining Coal Generation Share: Coal once generated over 50% of U.S. electricity but now accounts for only 17%, with projections suggesting it could drop to 7% by 2035, indicating a significant reduction in coal's role in the U.S. energy economy, which alters investor perspectives on the energy market.
- Replacement of Aging Facilities: Much of the U.S. coal fleet is decades old, and utilities are finding it cheaper to replace these aging plants than to keep them operational, accelerating coal retirements and diminishing its market value.
- Rise of Renewable Energy: Solar and wind have become low-cost sources of new electricity generation in the U.S., and when combined with battery storage systems, they can provide power during peak demand, undermining coal's traditional role as a baseload power source and hastening its retirement.
- Falling Battery Storage Costs: According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, the global benchmark cost for a four-hour battery project fell to $78 per megawatt-hour in 2025, a 27% decrease year-on-year, indicating that as battery storage becomes more affordable, coal's competitiveness in the modern energy economy will further decline.
See More
Structural Shift in the Coal Industry
- Declining Coal Market Share: Coal once generated over 50% of U.S. electricity but now accounts for only 17%, with projections suggesting it could drop to 7% by 2035, indicating a rapid erosion of coal's role in the energy economy and altering investor perspectives on the energy market.
- Rise of Battery Storage Technology: The cost of battery storage systems has plummeted, with the global benchmark for a four-hour battery project falling to $78 per megawatt-hour, a 27% year-on-year decrease, enabling solar plus storage to compete directly with existing coal plants in some regions, accelerating retirements.
- Economic Viability of Renewables: The abundance of natural gas and the cost advantages of renewables have significantly diminished coal's competitiveness, particularly as solar and wind have become some of the lowest-cost sources of new electricity generation in the U.S., prompting utilities to replace aging coal facilities.
- Shift in Investment Opportunities: As coal's market value declines, investors should focus on modern energy technologies like solar, wind, and battery storage systems, which are expected to yield significant wealth creation opportunities, especially as the coal industry faces obsolescence.
See More
AI Sparks Potential Blue-Collar Renaissance Amid Job Disruption Fears
- Blue-Collar Employment Revival: Oppenheimer analysts suggest that while AI may rapidly displace white-collar jobs, it could simultaneously drive demand for blue-collar roles, particularly in manufacturing, with employment projected to remain below pre-pandemic levels by 2026.
- Investment Theme Analysis: Oppenheimer outlined five investable themes, including the physical-to-digital connection, emphasizing the value of sensors and data pipelines, with companies in this space expected to benefit from automation trends, including Aeva Technologies and Tesla.
- Automation Tools Opportunity: The analysts identified automation tools that can reskill transitioning workforces, recommending companies like Caterpillar and Rockwell Automation, which enhance worksite experiences through task automation and AI agents.
- Autonomous Systems Development: Oppenheimer also highlighted companies supporting autonomous physical systems, such as Mobileye Global and Aurora Innovation, noting that as fully autonomous solutions are commercialized, human roles will still be essential for remote monitoring and maintenance to ensure safety and problem resolution.
See More
