Walmart Approaches $900 Billion Market Cap, Eyes $1 Trillion Valuation
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Jan 06 2026
0mins
Should l Buy WMT?
Source: Fool
- Market Cap Growth Potential: Walmart's market cap recently reached approximately $900 billion, and a modest 11% stock price increase could push it past the $1 trillion milestone, reflecting strong performance and market confidence in the retail sector.
- Outstanding Stock Performance: Over the past three years, Walmart's stock has surged more than 130%, and despite economic uncertainties, its consistent single-digit growth trend may continue into 2026, bolstering investor confidence.
- Valuation Risk: With a price-to-earnings ratio nearing 40, significantly above the historical average of 30, Walmart's strong business performance may not justify such a high valuation, potentially leading to investor hesitance amid market fluctuations.
- Long-Term Investment Value: Despite facing challenges, Walmart's expansion in advertising and online marketplace positions it as a solid blue-chip stock worth holding long-term, underscoring its leadership and growth potential in the retail industry.
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Analyst Views on WMT
Wall Street analysts forecast WMT stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for WMT is 125.75 USD with a low forecast of 119.00 USD and a high forecast of 136.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
26 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 126.940
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
Current: 126.940
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
About WMT
Walmart Inc. is a technology-powered omnichannel retailer. The Company is engaged in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, as well as eCommerce Websites and mobile applications, located throughout the United States (U.S.), Africa, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India and Mexico. It operates in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U.S. The Walmart U.S. segment includes the Company's mass merchandising concept in the U.S., as well as eCommerce, which includes omni-channel initiatives and certain other business offerings such as advertising services. The Walmart International segment consists of the Company's operations outside of the U.S. through its subsidiaries, as well as eCommerce and omni-channel initiatives. The Sam's Club U.S. segment includes the warehouse membership clubs in the U.S., as well as samsclub.com and omni-channel initiatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Walmart's Long-Term Investment Value
- Significant Sales Growth: In Q3 of fiscal 2026, Walmart reported net sales of $177 billion, a 5.8% increase, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in uncertain economic conditions, further solidifying its position as the world's largest retailer.
- Strong E-commerce Performance: Global e-commerce sales surged by 27%, indicating Walmart's successful transformation and market share gains in digital retail, enhancing its competitive edge and driving future growth potential.
- Substantial Shareholder Returns: An investment of $16.50 at Walmart's IPO would be worth $786,432 today, illustrating the immense benefits of long-term holding and underscoring the importance of patient investing.
- Outstanding Market Performance: Over the past decade, Walmart's stock has delivered a 480% return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 260%, reflecting not only the company's successful transformation in the retail sector but also the trust it has built among investors.
See More
Walmart's Path to Long-Term Investment Success
- Significant Sales Growth: In Q3 of fiscal 2026, Walmart reported net sales of $177 billion, a 5.8% increase, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in the face of economic uncertainty.
- Strong E-commerce Performance: Global e-commerce sales surged by 27%, indicating Walmart's successful digital transformation and further solidifying its market share, enhancing future growth potential.
- Substantial Shareholder Returns: Early investors who purchased Walmart stock at $16.50 during its IPO would now hold shares worth $786,432, illustrating the immense potential of long-term holding.
- Enhanced Market Competitiveness: Despite experiencing stock price fluctuations exceeding 30%, Walmart has successfully maintained its position as the world's largest retailer through multiple strategic pivots and innovations, showcasing its leadership in the retail sector.
See More
Tech Selloff Pressures Markets; Palantir Surprises with Earnings
- Palantir's Strong Earnings: Palantir reported an adjusted EPS of $0.25 for Q4 2023, with revenue soaring 69.2% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates; for 2026, it expects revenue between $7.182 billion and $7.198 billion, significantly above the consensus of $6.28 billion, indicating robust market demand and growth potential.
- Walmart Hits $1 Trillion Market Cap: Walmart's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time this week, becoming the first traditional retailer to achieve this milestone, joining tech giants like Tesla and Apple, reflecting strong performance in the retail sector and investor confidence.
- Stellantis Strategy Reset: Stellantis' stock plummeted after it issued preliminary results for H2 2025, paused its dividend for 2026, and announced a reset of its EV strategy, expecting to incur approximately €22.2 billion in charges, indicating a reassessment of electric vehicle demand and a shift in strategy.
- AMD's Mixed Performance: AMD reported an adjusted EPS of $1.53 for Q4 2023, with revenue up 34% year-over-year to $10.27 billion and data center revenue rising 39% to $5.4 billion; however, despite exceeding forecasts, its stock fell over 21% post-report, reflecting market concerns about future growth prospects.
See More
Comparison of Consumer Staples ETFs: XLP vs IYK
- Cost Comparison: State Street's XLP offers a significantly lower expense ratio of 0.08% compared to iShares' IYK at 0.38%, which means that for the same returns, XLP can provide higher net returns for long-term cost-conscious investors.
- Portfolio Composition: XLP focuses exclusively on 36 consumer staples stocks without including healthcare or basic materials, while IYK holds 54 stocks, with 85% in consumer defensive and 11% in healthcare, indicating that IYK's diversified strategy may appeal to investors seeking broader exposure.
- Returns and Risks: Over the past year, XLP delivered a return of 9.9% compared to IYK's 11.3%, and while IYK's returns are slightly higher, XLP's maximum drawdown of 16.31% indicates a higher risk profile during market volatility.
- Market Performance: XLP's top holdings include Walmart and Costco, providing a strong retail foundation, whereas IYK leans more towards product manufacturers, offering investors a defensive investment option in healthcare despite its higher fees.
See More
Comparison Analysis of Consumer Staples ETFs
- Cost and Yield Comparison: Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) charges an annual fee of just 0.09%, significantly lower than Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ) at 0.61%, while VDC also offers a higher dividend yield of 2.1% compared to PBJ's 1.7%, making VDC more appealing for income-focused investors.
- Portfolio Composition Differences: VDC encompasses over 100 consumer stocks, with 98% in consumer defensive, whereas PBJ focuses on 31 food and beverage companies, including Sysco and Corteva, which may increase specific company risk due to its concentrated investments.
- Market Performance and Risk: Over the past year, VDC achieved a return of 4.6%, while PBJ only managed 1.2%, and VDC's maximum drawdown of 16.55% is lower than PBJ's 15.84%, indicating VDC's relative stability amid market volatility.
- Investment Strategy Choices: As a pure index fund, VDC provides comprehensive defensive exposure to consumer staples, while PBJ employs quantitative analysis for a concentrated portfolio, charging nearly seven times the fees of VDC, yet recent performance suggests this may not justify the cost, prompting investors to choose wisely.
See More
Retail Performance Analysis: TJX vs Walmart
- Consumer Spending Pressure: Consumers are feeling the strain from high prices and an uncertain labor market, impacting many retailers' sales, although both TJX and Walmart reported positive same-store sales growth of 5% and 4.5%, respectively.
- TJX's Competitive Edge: By selling goods at 20% to 60% below full-price retailers, TJX leverages its strategy of purchasing excess inventory from manufacturers, enhancing its market appeal during economic downturns and attracting value-seeking consumers.
- Walmart's Steady Growth: Walmart maintains its competitive edge in the retail market through ongoing technology investments and cost control, with its U.S. segment achieving a 4.5% increase in same-store sales, driven by higher traffic and spending.
- Investment Choice Analysis: While Walmart's stock trades at a high P/E ratio of 44, significantly above its 10-year median of 29, TJX's impressive 145.7% ten-year return suggests a more attractive valuation, making it the recommended investment choice between the two.
See More
Walmart's Long-Term Investment Value
- Significant Sales Growth: In Q3 of fiscal 2026, Walmart reported net sales of $177 billion, a 5.8% increase, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in uncertain economic conditions, further solidifying its position as the world's largest retailer.
- Strong E-commerce Performance: Global e-commerce sales surged by 27%, indicating Walmart's successful transformation and market share gains in digital retail, enhancing its competitive edge and driving future growth potential.
- Substantial Shareholder Returns: An investment of $16.50 at Walmart's IPO would be worth $786,432 today, illustrating the immense benefits of long-term holding and underscoring the importance of patient investing.
- Outstanding Market Performance: Over the past decade, Walmart's stock has delivered a 480% return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 260%, reflecting not only the company's successful transformation in the retail sector but also the trust it has built among investors.
See More
Walmart's Path to Long-Term Investment Success
- Significant Sales Growth: In Q3 of fiscal 2026, Walmart reported net sales of $177 billion, a 5.8% increase, demonstrating resilience and adaptability in the face of economic uncertainty.
- Strong E-commerce Performance: Global e-commerce sales surged by 27%, indicating Walmart's successful digital transformation and further solidifying its market share, enhancing future growth potential.
- Substantial Shareholder Returns: Early investors who purchased Walmart stock at $16.50 during its IPO would now hold shares worth $786,432, illustrating the immense potential of long-term holding.
- Enhanced Market Competitiveness: Despite experiencing stock price fluctuations exceeding 30%, Walmart has successfully maintained its position as the world's largest retailer through multiple strategic pivots and innovations, showcasing its leadership in the retail sector.
See More
Tech Selloff Pressures Markets; Palantir Surprises with Earnings
- Palantir's Strong Earnings: Palantir reported an adjusted EPS of $0.25 for Q4 2023, with revenue soaring 69.2% year-over-year to $1.4 billion, surpassing Wall Street estimates; for 2026, it expects revenue between $7.182 billion and $7.198 billion, significantly above the consensus of $6.28 billion, indicating robust market demand and growth potential.
- Walmart Hits $1 Trillion Market Cap: Walmart's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time this week, becoming the first traditional retailer to achieve this milestone, joining tech giants like Tesla and Apple, reflecting strong performance in the retail sector and investor confidence.
- Stellantis Strategy Reset: Stellantis' stock plummeted after it issued preliminary results for H2 2025, paused its dividend for 2026, and announced a reset of its EV strategy, expecting to incur approximately €22.2 billion in charges, indicating a reassessment of electric vehicle demand and a shift in strategy.
- AMD's Mixed Performance: AMD reported an adjusted EPS of $1.53 for Q4 2023, with revenue up 34% year-over-year to $10.27 billion and data center revenue rising 39% to $5.4 billion; however, despite exceeding forecasts, its stock fell over 21% post-report, reflecting market concerns about future growth prospects.
See More
Comparison of Consumer Staples ETFs: XLP vs IYK
- Cost Comparison: State Street's XLP offers a significantly lower expense ratio of 0.08% compared to iShares' IYK at 0.38%, which means that for the same returns, XLP can provide higher net returns for long-term cost-conscious investors.
- Portfolio Composition: XLP focuses exclusively on 36 consumer staples stocks without including healthcare or basic materials, while IYK holds 54 stocks, with 85% in consumer defensive and 11% in healthcare, indicating that IYK's diversified strategy may appeal to investors seeking broader exposure.
- Returns and Risks: Over the past year, XLP delivered a return of 9.9% compared to IYK's 11.3%, and while IYK's returns are slightly higher, XLP's maximum drawdown of 16.31% indicates a higher risk profile during market volatility.
- Market Performance: XLP's top holdings include Walmart and Costco, providing a strong retail foundation, whereas IYK leans more towards product manufacturers, offering investors a defensive investment option in healthcare despite its higher fees.
See More
Comparison Analysis of Consumer Staples ETFs
- Cost and Yield Comparison: Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) charges an annual fee of just 0.09%, significantly lower than Invesco Food & Beverage ETF (PBJ) at 0.61%, while VDC also offers a higher dividend yield of 2.1% compared to PBJ's 1.7%, making VDC more appealing for income-focused investors.
- Portfolio Composition Differences: VDC encompasses over 100 consumer stocks, with 98% in consumer defensive, whereas PBJ focuses on 31 food and beverage companies, including Sysco and Corteva, which may increase specific company risk due to its concentrated investments.
- Market Performance and Risk: Over the past year, VDC achieved a return of 4.6%, while PBJ only managed 1.2%, and VDC's maximum drawdown of 16.55% is lower than PBJ's 15.84%, indicating VDC's relative stability amid market volatility.
- Investment Strategy Choices: As a pure index fund, VDC provides comprehensive defensive exposure to consumer staples, while PBJ employs quantitative analysis for a concentrated portfolio, charging nearly seven times the fees of VDC, yet recent performance suggests this may not justify the cost, prompting investors to choose wisely.
See More
Retail Performance Analysis: TJX vs Walmart
- Consumer Spending Pressure: Consumers are feeling the strain from high prices and an uncertain labor market, impacting many retailers' sales, although both TJX and Walmart reported positive same-store sales growth of 5% and 4.5%, respectively.
- TJX's Competitive Edge: By selling goods at 20% to 60% below full-price retailers, TJX leverages its strategy of purchasing excess inventory from manufacturers, enhancing its market appeal during economic downturns and attracting value-seeking consumers.
- Walmart's Steady Growth: Walmart maintains its competitive edge in the retail market through ongoing technology investments and cost control, with its U.S. segment achieving a 4.5% increase in same-store sales, driven by higher traffic and spending.
- Investment Choice Analysis: While Walmart's stock trades at a high P/E ratio of 44, significantly above its 10-year median of 29, TJX's impressive 145.7% ten-year return suggests a more attractive valuation, making it the recommended investment choice between the two.
See More
